Seeking Alpha

Nokia (NOK -5.9%) is selling off again today. A less-than-flattering WSJ article about the early...

Nokia (NOK -5.9%) is selling off again today. A less-than-flattering WSJ article about the early U.S. uptake seen by Windows Phone (MSFT) could be playing a role. An AT&T reseller claimed the Lumia 900 only made up 2% of its sales, even though profits on 900 sales are higher than for the iPhone or Galaxy S III, and a T-Mobile reseller claimed WP devices made up just 3% of its sales. The column also notes developer reluctance to write for WP in the absence of a large user base. (yesterday)
Comments (20)
  • The smartphone operating-system wars are over. The winners are iOS and Android.
    29 Aug 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • While I disagree with you Tack, I think it was a bonehead move by MSFT/NOK not to ensure they could upgrade the Lumia 900 to WP8. I don't care if 7.7 (or whatever it is) is similar too or has most of the features. The mentality of consumers is they want the best, they aren't going to buy something that can't be upgraded when the upgrade is 6 months away.


    The smartphone OS battles in the US may be over but worldwide the stage is set for many more. I think worldwide the numbers will be mixed. Android topping all with Apple close 2nd and Windows a healthy 3rd.
    29 Aug 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • wig:


    You'd be wrong.


    Android is runaway winner on global basis with 68% share; Apple next at 17%. Then, the crumbs.

    29 Aug 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tack short term yes, but I was thinking more long term. Apple still hasn't penetrated globally which might be it's stalling point. China/India directly in focus here as they command the worlds largest populations, and biggest potential markets going forward. WP for certain will pick up the crumbs but I think they will be mildly successful with their WP8 line, particularly when it comes to businesses. Even if WP gets to 5-10% global market share in the next 10 years I think thats a huge success for them.


    I'm a bit surprised Apple is only 17% globally though that was lower then I though.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • @wigit5


    As a very satisfied Lumia 900 customer I can say that the Lumia 900 WP8 upgrade is a non-issue. I will have had my Lumia 900 for a year by the time the best WP8 devices are shipping at discount. I can then just upgrade to a Lumia 910, 920 or 950; hopefully one has Pureview In the meantime I'd rather have a Microsoft Surface Pro/RT or a Lenovo Yoga and see how to divide and sync my amusement, browsing and content creation between laptop, phone and tablet devices. I've found that most people don't even realize there is a Windows Phone offering but Apple vs. Samsung and Windows 8 is really starting to change that issue. I'm a Mac techno challenged and geners should just stay with their Apple and Android toys.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Glad to hear it worked for you, I held off simply because my upgrade window started in april/may of this year so 6 months wasnt a big deal for me.
    29 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • OS wars have been going on for over 40 years and will never be over whether PCs, smart phones or tablets. Same as car brand wars. One and half billion Symbian and one billion Windows users or 1/3 of global population don't use Android or iOS yet.


    Nokia's down today due to profit taking and more negative articles like this

    29 Aug 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5:


    " I think it was a bonehead move by MSFT/NOK not to ensure they could upgrade the Lumia 900 to WP8"


    I'll point out that Google's original Nexus wasn't upgradable because they changed the amount of buttons required for the OS, that WindowsPhone Classic had the same issue in terms of migration to WP7, that Apple's original iPhone II was utter crap for communication but made a great media device and was discontinued in a short time frame.


    All to make the point that new OS have teething problems, and I think that's what happened to WindowsPhone.


    It's ok though, I think WP will rise to greatness over time via integration with MSFT services, xBox, and desktop products.


    I'll also point out that no one else has anything like Nokia's pureview.


    Those R&D dollars are going to pay off.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah I understand kmi... it just seems like the launch of the lumia 900 and the WP8 announcement were so close together. It almost immediately raised doubts about whether the 900 would be upgrade able which prevented me from buying then.


    I'm thrilled about the pureview, and I'll def be at the at&t on the launch date.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thing here is to remember that the business end of the global market iswide open. Most still use windows, and with the tablet, phone and windows eight software completing the line-up, there is bound to be some traction.
    Take into account China and India, but also the rest of the world not having subsidized phones, and this makes the combat zone in Europe more about android and windows. Apple is expensive. There should definitely be some traction there, especially since the European market is very used to the Nokia name. There is some value in the patent portfolio.
    And, bottom line is the product. I am running windows eight beta, and windows phone seven, and it is absolutely awesome. I much prefer it over android, simply because it is about ten times faster. And although the king of smooth is apple, I had far too much trouble with university papers not being formatted correctly to be able to use them. I am sh&*scared to be long nokia, but my gut tells me that two years from now I will be kicking myself
    31 Aug 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • I knew Nokia would be a great short when it popped on the patent ruling. Here are all my thoughts on why NOK is headed down even further:
    29 Aug 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Let's see how the Sept 5th Microsoft Nokia event goes and how the Oct 26th Windows 8 Surface event goes. There's s over a billion Windows users that just might be waiting for a tablet and phone that work with their professional technology.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • "For Swedish designer Jacob Ravn, the issue is that the Microsoft phone interface doesn't match the iPhone's ease of use."


    I've tried it last week and I found Windows Phone 7 to be easier to use than Android or IOS.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • This is why I think all 3 OS's will do just fine. People are finicky they like different things. Their natural abilities are different and there will be a market for all 3. Some will dominate, but you don't need to dominate to do well, if it makes a profit that's all that matters.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Why argue with biased opinions from writers of articles paid to push their company's book when the production numbers in six months will prove the superiority of the Nokia product over its competition. Third place today may become first in a few quarters. Time will tell.


    And by the way, Nokia still continues to be a speculative investment, which makes it a move that's not for everyone; only those able to withstand losses. On the other hand, what's safe today when even the mighty dollar is based on faith and credit? What'll happen if the people around the world lose faith and the credit dries out?
    29 Aug 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Completely agree anyone who thinks 100% Nokia is a winner is a fool. Apple and Android both have devout followings and winning them over won't be easy.


    By this time next year things could be completely flipped but we won't know until we get some feedback on the new iPhone and WP8 + Nokia phones.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry to burst your bubble, Windows has a much larger following then Android and Apple combined. Again someone expressing an opinion who lives in a box!@
    29 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • sreimer Windows does, but Windows Phone has virtually no following... yet.
    29 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • With Windows 8, those two ecosystem's will converge!
    30 Aug 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Well we NOK/MSFT investors hope that happens. If Windows 8 and WP8 get accepted by even 30% of PC users then we are in good shape.
    30 Aug 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)