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The stock market has priced in the worst news, resulting in attractive valuations that should...

The stock market has priced in the worst news, resulting in attractive valuations that should see a rally of at least 16% by year's end, Abby Joseph Cohen says. Indeed, with companies optimistic about Q2 numbers, some say stocks have room to rise. RBS' Andrew Roberts, expecting a "collapse far beyond what even some equity bears anticipate," would beg to differ.
Comments (42)
  • sharp journalism - "some say?"
    28 Jun 2010, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jesus was playing QB for Nazareth the last time Abby Joseph Cohen was right about anything.


    She was only off by 750 points on the S&P two years ago.
    28 Jun 2010, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • LOL, Cohen touting the 15+% increase in market by year-end is virtually a certain sign that GS is dumping and building short positions now. You can count on Cohen for one thing ... always do the opposite of whatever she is touting for public consumption, because you can be sure GS traders are.
    28 Jun 2010, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • I CALL A TOP!!!
    29 Jun 2010, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • How is she employed still? Meteorologists have a better track record than she does.
    28 Jun 2010, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, she is employed.


    As a shill.
    28 Jun 2010, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • If that were me in her job, I'd have been canned long ago. She's obviously got someone over a barrel.
    28 Jun 2010, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • I am a meteorologist. Please do not mention my occupation in the same sentence as any Wall Street prognosticator. It's insulting. Thank you.
    29 Jun 2010, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • She's doing her "job." As her COMPANY defines it.
    29 Jun 2010, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Here is a new financial reform rule:


    If you are an analyst and make an "EPIC FAIL" prediction, such as being off 750 points on the S&P closing price at the end of the year, you are not allowed to offer your opinion without some sort of disclaimer right by your name on TV or in print. Saying something like "This person made the following prediction 2 years ago..."
    This won't happen because 95% of CNBC's talking heads would be too ashamed to come on TV with such a rule in place.
    28 Jun 2010, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Not an Abby fan... never puts a stake in the ground and never made a "change call" different than concensus....


    That said...


    Expect as earnings flow out- sentiment turn positive, and the moves be expotential to the upside. The volatiity is unprecedented-upside too
    28 Jun 2010, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • sure. and also sure that the 3Q/4Q outlooks will be stellar too, given all the growth exploding all over the place.
    oh, um, wait a minute........
    28 Jun 2010, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • MMM ups guidance. MU beats. Any other questions?
    28 Jun 2010, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stone:


    Forget Abby.


    These discussions remind me of debates I've had with people who won't refute hard data or barely even acknowledge it. That avoids the need for logical argument.


    Data? Who cares about data?


    These guys just "know" a double dip is in the cards because....well, because.... it just is.
    28 Jun 2010, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • I have a question? What about NKE RIMM BBBY FDX BBY. Next month's earnings will most likely turn the markets into a dark evil sea of red.
    28 Jun 2010, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Look who Abby's employer is.


    "Like attracts like."
    28 Jun 2010, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • That was not necessary... also data can be "review mirror"- more worried about trends and cycles
    28 Jun 2010, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • User:


    So, you think FDX is going to report poor earnings? I can't wait.


    And, RIMM is having its lunch eaten by AAPL, so, if they miss, that's not the economy speaking


    So, that leaves us to think that the western world is hanging on three consumer stocks. Doubtful.


    Wait till you see other tech and industrial earnings, and here's betting that home stocks, like HD and LOW, beat, too.
    28 Jun 2010, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Agree on these stocks- but as mentioned...what is the environment, emotions, politics, "contagion" headwinds and what are legitimate misses. When the day is done- stocks are valued on future cashflows with risk being applied as probability. So far, there have been very few earnings warnings or adjustments... IMO must of the compression has been from the macro element that will dissipate. I am a buyer in this market....
    28 Jun 2010, 08:55 PM Reply Like


    Your performance during various markets, both bull and bear.
    Can your whole 2 clients expect a repeat of your previous typical Wall Street type money management techniques??
    I see no real asset management there at all. Just a following of the major benchmarks straight down the toilet.


    Any other questions?
    28 Jun 2010, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tack. FDX already reported poor earnings 2 weeks ago. And LOW did as well last month, they sucked. Yeah next month is going to be fun.
    28 Jun 2010, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, you're right, they were just awful. LOW beats by $0.03 and FDX by $0.01.


    Fedex also said they were stepping up investment because business was growing faster than expected.
    28 Jun 2010, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • hmmmm....Merideth Whitney says wouldn't touch financials with a 100 foot pole, and says (without saying it) that she sees double dip coming. AJC says huge upside to come rest of year.
    Which one to believe?


    I'd rather be wrong with a hottie than right with "Pat".....
    28 Jun 2010, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Yes awesome earnings. I guess that's why both have gone straight down ever since their release! Lol.
    28 Jun 2010, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Respect their opinions but do not believe them blindly. They are players in the market, not just neutral observers. Did you ever hear PIMCO guys (bond fund king) say anything good about stocks in the past? But it is a fact that they are starting stock funds. This means something about long term / medium term prospect of stocks. Short term, I don't know for sure. The market is always right.
    28 Jun 2010, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds familiar in case your memory is short. Half a dozen or more years ago, another lady market guru forecast the DOW will move up to the 40,000 level in "next few years". Haven't heard much from that one of late though.
    28 Jun 2010, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Priced in the "worst news" ? We ain't even seen "bad" news yet. Just some shuffling of the deck chairs. The "worst" is coming and it ain't gonna be pretty. My grandparents saw it long ago, but they're dead now. Our turn now.
    28 Jun 2010, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • The suggestion that markets which are being PERMANENTLY pumped higher could possibly have "the worst news priced in" isn't even rational. Even for a shill that is an embarrassment.


    By the way, I noticed that U.S. exchange 'regulators' didn't like the price of Boeing shares today, so they canceled a bunch more trades...and no one even seems to be saying anything about it.


    Now THAT is corruption!


    "More trading-fraud in U.S. markets"
    28 Jun 2010, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • I mean really.
    Anyone who has been investing for 15 years like myself or even longer knows that Abby Joseph Cohen means nothing. At one time, when the US bull market from 1982 to 2000 seemed like it would never end, people thought she was a guru. Just like mutual fund managers, Jim Cramer, Bill Miller, these people rode the coattails of a bull market up and were "right" simply because the market kept going up. However once the bull market was over and wealth preservation was needed they all proved they had no idea whatsoever how to protect a clients net worth. Of course that fact is completely glossed over by the media whose sole job is to keep lying to people.
    Those of us who are not desperate or need stocks to keep going up to make up for horrific investing abilities know that 0% FED money given to its partner banks to walk the stock market up from March 09 on declining volume will eventually fail. Always has, always will. The general public is needed to truly build long term wealth and stock market movement and they are either out of the market or bankrupt thanks to the previous decades worth of lies by the shills on Wall Street.


    Abby Cohen might move the market for a day or so, but most of us know they simply wheel her out when they need a feel good boost to the market coupled with some good ole fashioned FED priming at the pump for the markets.
    28 Jun 2010, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • And the Inflation vs Deflation debate rages on
    28 Jun 2010, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ms. Abby,


    As everyone knows, I'm a Republican, but an anti-Tea-Party Centrist, who believes what's good for this country is cooperation, coalition-building, and reaching consensus - in markets, as well as politics.


    If you are advising the Obama-ites, as you've done in the past, please tell them that if you want to restore and preserve a bull market, it's important - in fact, crucial - not to make the same (intentional?) mistake Senator McCain and his advisors made in 2008.


    These (faux? cynical?) advisors told him that the way to win the election was getting Oil prices down - period. They acconmplished this by keeping rates up too long - they went straight down the chute after the election - while pumping Dollah, Dollah, Dollah, and dumping large quantities of Gold out of airplanes.


    We saw how well this worked.


    Dollah being pumped and commodities being dumped are an overt demonstration of one thing only: Stimulus not given a chance to work, so "we" - i.e. the dastardly "bond vigilantes" - can loudly proclaim that Keynesian economics is dead; Voodoo - excuse me - Supply-side economics will reign for all eternity; and promoting, rather than squelching, income inequality and furthering hollowing out of our manufacturing, resources, and small business sectors are the way we must continue forever and ever.


    There is only one way to stop the Tea Partiers in their tracks. And that is to allow the dollar to recede to fairer levels, allow the commodity complex to increase to fairer levels, and simply ignore the inevitable rise in the gold price, which just corresponds to its return to where it SHOULD be - most believe the 2400-2600 range - if it had been allowed to reflect the inflation of the past 30 years instead of being "sat on" so blatantly in what may be the most extreme currency manipulation scheme in human history.


    None of these movements has to be extreme! Let Dollah gradually fall. Let Gold gradually rise. Let commodities rise to reflect something other than massive currency imbalances condoned by the Chinese and greedy speculators of all stripes, including Organized Crime.


    Currency speculation has become the Tail That Wags All Markets - and it's about time it was stopped.
    28 Jun 2010, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • you call yourself a republican and then in the same breath call yourself "anti-Tea Party", huh?
    sound more like a RINO to me. There are no more centrists left in the Democratic party; the "progressives" have taken over big time, so please tell me who exactly you think you can "partner" or build concensus with over there? They will GF you all the way to the polls just like they've been doing to the American people for the last few years. Please, wake up and smell the Tea!
    28 Jun 2010, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • One of the more incoherent posts I've seen in these here parts. Besides, you obviously know nothing of the tea party philosophy. I'd agree with mannettino that you sound like an Arlen Spector "Progressive" Republican. Before you can get a non-government pumped bull market going, you need a solid fiscal and monetary base to work from.
    28 Jun 2010, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • This is a classic glass half-full or half-empty argument. Andrew is looking at LTM P/E and says it is too high, Abbey looks at "projected" P/E and says it's too low.


    Both of them are nothing more than CNBC whores with delorable track record and their "analysis" has zero predictive power. I am surprised that RBS can even afford a "strategist" of some sort, isn't RBS broke and in UK receivership or maybe Andrew is a high school intern?
    28 Jun 2010, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Using the term "RINO" in itself demonstrates that the Tea Partiers are anti-consensus and Big Tent politics - and therefore bad, not good, for the GOP.


    In fact, the Faux Left used the term "DINO" for decades, in their attempts to take over the Democratic Party.


    For three or four decades, Republicans have had a clear edge over Democrats in shunning "political correctness" and welcoming all Americans, without using litmus tests to screen people out. IMO, any kind of political litmus test is essentially elitist and therefore anti-American.


    So now we want to become more "politically correct" and more elitist than the opposing party? As a lifelong Republican, I don't!


    In fact, the Pseudo-Extremism promoted by the Tea Partiers on the Faux Right and the MoveOn.Org'ers on the Faux Left are just mirror images of the same basic construct: a parlor game meant to keep the major Parties at loggerheads, while preserving the status quo of a handful of obscenely wealthy Oligarchs doing their best to degrade and destroy bourgeois culture and values, which are the bedrock of what it means to be an American.


    You might want to familiarize yourself with my ongoing series:


    The Rest of U.S., for and about Centrists: newcentristera.wordpre...//


    Baby Boomers-The Angriest Generation: angriestgeneration.wor...//


    The Media Revolution subseries at EllenInteractive: elleninteractive.wordp...//


    and the newest series, Capital Punishment-Markets Through the Looking Glass: marketslookingglass.wo...//


    My viewpoint is very consistent, and the four series, taken together, should show you what I believe - which is what I'm convinced the majority of Americans also believe.
    28 Jun 2010, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • heh




    29 Jun 2010, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • yea. Just like the "majority" of Americans support government run health care, spending like crazy, the ObeyMe regime's posture on immigration/Arizona, etc, etc.


    please...spare me...
    29 Jun 2010, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ah, yes, old Abby Joseph Cohen. While still in her guru days but after she helped inflate the tech bubble back in 2001 and it had burst, I wrote my "Shrink Rap" column for in the form of a critical letter , saying she should apologize for her terrible calls and her irresponsible cheerleading that helped cost so many people so much money. It was entitled, "Dear Abby: It'sTime to Apologize." You can read it here:


    Shortly after this column was published, I was dropped by after 74 consecutive weekly columns that were quite popular with readers, staff, and contributors alike--including Jim Cramer. Although I can't prove it (and nobody said so), I believe the heat that my being critical of her created cost me my column. Somebody at GS didn't like it, even though my editor could have initially said "no" to the piece but raised no objection when I submitted it. I didn't like what Cohen was doing back in those years and I don't like it any better now.
    29 Jun 2010, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • Right on. But the informed investors have learned since 1999. Cohen is totally discredited in the view of any investor who has any smarts whatsoever. Cohen is now well know as the GS shrill that she was then and continues to be today. Cohen may well be the best contra indicator available in the markets today, particularily in dicey markets such as exist at this time.


    BTW, a very good and accurate description that you wrote in your column. Congrats for having the guts and integrity to write it like it really was then.
    29 Jun 2010, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • Wow. Market, do not ask for whom the bell tolls, cause when this woman calls for clear skies... it tolls for thee.
    29 Jun 2010, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • You guys are probably right about the market; but Abbey didn't cause the lack of faith. It 's a crooked market.The market wasn't brought down by a legitimate business cycle. It was brought down by massive fraud. It hasn't been fixed. Until the Davos Mafia, the Goldman huddlers, the Wells Fargo drug cartel money launderers, and the "little princes' of oil that gave us Bush and the Gulf are cleaned up, we will continue to suffer from malaise. Where's Hitler when you need him?
    29 Jun 2010, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Semi-retired long term investor. Own mostly "value" stocks, bonds, and short term bond funds.
    29 Jun 2010, 05:27 PM Reply Like
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