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Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 370K consensus, 374K prior revised (prior week 372K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 370K consensus, 374K prior revised (prior week 372K). Continuing claims +9K at 3.32M.
Comments (37)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims
    drops 484 to 379862...no recession....
    30 Aug 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Doesn't look like much job growth either. This number you quote seems to have been stuck at this number for quite a long time without improvement.

     

    What do you think?

     

    How does this average compare to the post 2003-2008 period?

     

    I appreciate it. Thanks.
    30 Aug 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    Awesome. At this rate, in 56 years, we'll be back to full employment. Of course, we'll have $483 Trillion in debt by then, but deficits don't matter, right?
    30 Aug 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Won't happen in 56 years because we are not even employing the new population growth that is available to enter the workforce each year - much less the chronic unemployed.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • StockTrader7
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    mickmars - That's funny, although probably accurate. When we do approach half a Quadrillion in debt what will the politicians blame it on then? Chuck Shumer will probably still be in office and have the solution. LOL.
    30 Aug 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    4 years ago we had 154.5 mil in the workforce. Today we have 155.0 mil in the workforce. With 1% growth, we should have been at 160.8 mil in the workforce by now. We are short 5.8 mil workers in the workforce. Certainly productivity should account for some of that.
    30 Aug 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    wheew... good. I thought the U.S. was in a recession! Last time I checked recessions are not determined by the 52 week moving average of non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims.
    30 Aug 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (6986) | Send Message
     
    Ask the 29 million underemployed if we are in a Recession. Ask those who are underwater with mortgage if we are in a recession. As the college grads living in parent's basement if we are in a recession.
    30 Aug 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    The U.S. is not in a technical recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The Fed is only helping the rich by temporarily boosting the stock market and the government is enslaving the lower middle class and lower class through record high welfare programs. Who would go back to work if you could make just as much money by sitting at home doing nothing? It's a disincentive to work. By the way, the unemployment rate for people with a bachelor's degree and higher is by far the lowest among education levels (approx 4% in a declining trend).
    30 Aug 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • StockTrader7
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Blue, we post an opening for only 48 hours for the companies I own. I kid you not that we receive hundreds of walk-in applicants of all ages for just a 2 day posting.
    About 85% of the applicants are under 30 years old, many with degrees, some prestigious degrees. And the jobs don't require education and pay under $10/hour.
    We have been seeing this trend since July 2011 so I can only imagine how many young adults that keep graduating each semester since then is getting a dose of this "non-recession". How they can continue to buy iPads and iPhones is inexplicable - has to be credit card usage.
    So don't be fooled by BLS that things are getting better. They haven't even stabilized for the Generation Y clueless. So I am in agreement with your comment.
    30 Aug 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    This moving average has to turn up (and consistently) to signal a
    recession coming..its lead time has varied between 3 months and 12 months.....it has been on a southward path since October 2009....there are other measures I use to confirm but I will keep that to myself...
    30 Aug 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    I think you will see your 52 week moving average climb for 9 of the next 10 weeks as each prior year's week is replaced by a higher current year's week of jobless claims.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    Non seasonally adjusted?? 52 week movng average??...Wanna bet???
    30 Aug 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Not SA, raw numbers.
    30 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    If what you are saying is true...then you are predicting next weeks number
    ( using the seasonal factor of .843) will be a seasonally adjusted number of 413,500 or higher....(348,583(last years9/3/11number)/.843)
    30 Aug 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Yep.
    30 Aug 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • mfritz095
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    If you really, fervently, deeply want to believe there is no recession then you can find data that will validate that belief. However, in just about any other time in this country's history, we would be considered to be in a recession. 8.3% unemployment, record setting number of people out of work for an extended period, millions of homes foreclosed, 1.7% growth (and that's considered a good number) not to mention 3 straight years of trillion dollar plus budget deficits (why if there is no recession are we running such large deficits). Good help us if we actually have a recession then.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    Bbro is just Obro incognito
    30 Aug 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    If Romney is elected and I am still spilling this positive drivel do you promise to call me Rbro?
    30 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3533) | Send Message
     
    Cheap shot. Bbro just lives by numbers but he's not biased. But for not being in a recession, things are pitiful.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Poor,

     

    "Cheap shot. Bbro just lives by numbers but he's not biased."

     

    Absolutely correct. He plays it straight as he sees it. You may disagree but that's called a difference of opinion and interpretation not bias.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    Exactly...here is a hint....follow the postponable purchases GDP components to GDP ratio,,,
    30 Aug 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    bbro tends to be overly optimistic, in my opinion, but he does understand that Obama and Romney have little unique impact on the economy.

     

    They're just some guys who take orders from others and read off teleprompters anyway.
    30 Aug 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    My general beef is w/the way the jobs number is computed. The fudging that goes on w/the participation rate makes the actual number say whatever they want. Nothing personal.

     

    The real truth is that the last recession never ended.
    31 Aug 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Storm Warning
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Not sure why everyone has to bash bbro. As much as I can't stand the spin on CNBS or anywhere else, bbro is only presenting one indication with a 2-word conclusion. The value of this site exists only in the differing interpretations of current events. Evolve.
    30 Aug 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10407) | Send Message
     
    I miss the old days on Seeking Alpha when you could give someone a
    thumbs down...my record was 45 thumbs down....
    30 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Me too. This stupid "Like" trend pioneered by FB has dumbed down the world. Every idiot with an opinion can have their self-esteem reinforced by like-minded idiots - "The Smartest Idiot Award".
    30 Aug 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    You can still give a thumbs down.....SA will just not track them.

     

    -------V------- (That's my version)
    30 Aug 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • azblackbird
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    We'll be touching 400k before the end of the year, maybe even more if the "fiscal cliff" is not abated. Course we'll never hear about it though.
    30 Aug 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14394) | Send Message
     
    Once upon a time I was under the naively mistaken impression that SA was an investment site, where participants were interested to follow data and make intelligent decisions on investment matters, with an aim to making money. Only after being around for a while, did I realize that the site is just another political soapbox for many, as well as a "social consciousness" venue for the perpetually "concerned."

     

    One can spend time bemoaning employment travails, or one can attempt to focus on data that has actual relevance to stock prices and, ergo, making money. In that vein, from today:

     

    "Ross Stores (http://bit.ly/A3xQrm) same-store sales +8%. Total sales+13% to $747M

     

    Nordstorm (http://bit.ly/NYRHBu) same-store sales: +21%. Total sales+25.2% to $866M. Shares +1.7%

     

    Macy's (http://bit.ly/tdHCyS) same-store sales: +5.1%. Total sales +5.7% to $1.81B. Shares +0.6%

     

    Retailers are crushing it with a late month surge in back-to-school spending boosting monthly sales numbers. The bigger the retailer, the better the numbers with Target, Gap, Costco, and Limited Brands leading the charge. The rash of sales beats bodes well for Wal-Mart's (http://bit.ly/uElAtu) own August numbers.

     

    Gap (http://bit.ly/K9lkJU) says same-store sales rose 9% in August, nearly double the consensus mark from analysts calling for a 5.4% gain. The buzz is that the sales gain from the retailer come with margins still holding their own. Gap segment breakdown: Gap North America +9%; Banana Republic North America +8%; Old Navy +12%; International -2%. GPS +1.0% premarket.

     

    Target (http://bit.ly/KPnoYz) reports same-store sales rose 4.7% in August, topping the expectations of analysts for a 3.1% gain. The retailer said sales picked up in the latter half of the month, tipping off that its back-to-school season is on track. Shares of TGT +0.7% premarket."
    30 Aug 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1179) | Send Message
     
    Bbro, 484 out of 384,000 doesn't seem like a very large margin for error. What does the trend look like for this number? Where does one find the data series to build a 52 week NSA moving average? Does that data series reflect the subsequent revisions, or do you just take the numbers as they're reported each week?

     

    How do you relate this indicator to the current level of the stock market? Are you optimistic, pessimistic or neutral on the market at these levels - long term, say 3 years?
    30 Aug 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Spin
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Data is not fact. Data can be manipulated to represent something that is not a fact. Interpretations of data are not a glimpse into the future.
    30 Aug 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    We will be in a depression within 10 years from this date or sooner. Screw the numbers...They are being manipulated by the Obama adminsistration. The federal GDP of 1.7%? Impossible with this kind of wage inflation. Consumer spending that came out is all lies...They are manipulating the real numbers to get Obama re-elected...because we all know that the economy is now #1 to him getting another 4 years and if the election were held today he would win with flying colors. Then he gets to add on another 5 trillion dollars of debt and watch unemployment go to 25%....
    30 Aug 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Kameelyon
    , contributor
    Comments (323) | Send Message
     
    President Obama would win with flying colors if the election were held today? That's not the world I live in. It appears to be a very close race IMO.
    30 Aug 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • User 123108
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    TO HIRE THE PEOPLE TO DO WHAT? WHAT CAN THEY
    DO? OR JUST HIRE THEM FOR STIMULUS? THE PROBLEM
    IS THERE ISNT ENOUGH BUSINESS TO HIRE MORE PEOPLE
    ISNT THAT THE POINT?
    30 Aug 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3533) | Send Message
     
    Fifty years ago companies hired for peak periods and carried their excess employees through the slow times, using that time for training and upgrading skills. With the expenses that have been added to employment, business now hires for the slowest time and uses overtime and temps for peak periods. IF you have a job conditions are better than fifty years ago due to the additional regulations and expenses but that's only if you have a job.
    30 Aug 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • barney0065
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    If Romney wins, we are in a Depression in 4 years...
    31 Aug 2012, 03:42 AM Reply Like
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