Seeking Alpha

'The crowded long dollar trade is no more," writes Sober Look, as CFTC data shows currency...

'The crowded long dollar trade is no more," writes Sober Look, as CFTC data shows currency speculators last week turned net short the greenback for the first time in nearly a year. The CFTC information can be handy when it gets to extremes. A year ago, specs were leaning heavily to the short side (amidst the U.S. credit downgrade) just as the dollar was set to take off on a 9-month, 13.5% run higher.
From other sites
Comments (4)
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
    Who's spreading misinformation?


    COT report still shows disproportionately large net long USD positions, and hedge funds have actually added more longs.
    3 Sep 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
    Watch the /DX and USD pairs action, not the prognostications. Trade accordingly.
    3 Sep 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
    Likely, the dollar will continue to lose purchasing power here at home causing the know-it-alls to proclaim the end of the dollar. It ain't gonna happen baby. With all of our negatives, the dollar is STILL [at least for now] the strongest world leading, course setting fiat currency there is.
    Now, that is in global terms, if you are engaged in foreign travel, trade or FOREX trading, it may make a difference to you, but those folks know how to hedge, and day trade and make money from it regardless of whether our dollar is trending up or down.


    What EVERYONE fails to say or notice, it is what is changing in OUR terms. And that is,simply, what a dollar will purchase here at home. So look at the dollar index, look at all the factors you like and listen to the news and the gurus.


    All I look at is the price of fuel at the pumps, a gallon of milk for my babies, and living expenses. Remember, long ago, in many posts I keep saying that the NGM's tell us there is no inflation, and I did not wish to fight them because they have all the data at their fingertips.


    All I am saying is the "NEW COST OF LIVING" is such and so.
    NO inflation, of course not, the NGM's wouldn't lie to us would they now?


    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator


    Look at the price of fuel when I started my business in 1988, it was .84 cents per gallon, and now, 24 years later, as I sign papers this morning to sell my wonderful little tour boat, fuel is approaching the $4 mark again. Yep, no inflation, just a new cost of living.


    PPS, BTW, FYI if you divide .84 into $4.00, that is 476% inflation in 24 years or 19% real inflation PER YEAR. Am I correct? OOPS I mean the "NEW COST OF LIVING" went up that much, inflation is not a factor.


    BTW, when I began my business it cost me $80 a day to break even, for business and personal expenses, now it is $286 a day JUST for the business, which is pretty well the same except for using more fuel as I run more trips than those days.
    4 Sep 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • gjg49
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
    Capt Brian,
    You asked if you were correct on your "new cost of living" calculation--sorry, you calculated incorrectly. The compounded rate over 24 years for 476% inflation works out to slightly less than 7% annually. If prices increased 7% every year, they would increase 1.07 taken to the 24th power over 24 years. That gives a total inflation of just over 503% over 24 years.
    I am sure this will make you feel much better (note how that drips with sarcasm) knowing that inflation was only 7% per year after all.
    4 Sep 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs