Seeking Alpha

August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment...

August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment rate 8.1% vs. consensus 8.3%, 8.3% previous.
Comments (114)
  • Fewer working. A LOT fewer looking.

     

    It's all good, until someone needs to feed their family from something other than the 'dole'.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Each day 10,000 Americans trun 65, so a lot fewer are working.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Uh, Terry, that makes no sense whatsoever.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Retirement age is 67 now Terry, if you want to draw full Social Security. Fortunately for the unemployment rate, the young people who can't find jobs aren't included in the workforce and don't count as unemployed so that holds the rate down.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Not many older workers are retiring. CD and bond rates at zero from Bernanke's War on Savers is eating away at people's retirement plans.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • As if we needed any more proof that Terry can't do basic math, compare his "10,000 Americans turn 65" to 0.2% of the entire labor force dropping out.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • I wanna know who the 8 dopes are that "Liked" her/his comment???
    7 Sep 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • I think they just like the avatar picture.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • % of population employed drops from 58.4% to 58.3%

     

    http://bit.ly/uosUSn

     

    We need $1.3 trillion in deficit spending just to maintain the status quo now.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Labor force participation is now 63.5%. The lowest since May 1979.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • After "looking" for 18 months they conveniently disappear from the calculation.
    "Real" unemployment approximately 15-25 % among working age Americans !
    College graduates have an abysmal 50 % chance of finding a job with their newly earned degree.
    This is Obama's economy...... so sad for the future of our young adults !
    7 Sep 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Since Obama took office the WFPR (workforce participation rate) for the Over - 65 crowd has increased from 21.6% to 23%. Seems like the Gray Hairs are taking spots the young whipper-snappers could be taking at 1/2 the price.......Power to the Gray Hairs !!!!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/UxVh4O
    7 Sep 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Heck, I gave her likes for the first 6 months until I started reading her comments in full - just because of the picture.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • When CD and bond rates are below 1% what do you expect?
    7 Sep 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • 8.1 best number in many months. President Obama will win in November.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • or not!
    7 Sep 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • And right on schedule, the DNC photocopier cranks up.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Terry:
    Newsflash for you. The only reason the unemployment rate dropped was due to lower "participation rate" in the job force. Let me translate that for you: THERE ARE LESS PEOPLE working than last month. It's embarassing to listen to those shills on CNBC (Liesman & Kernan) try to put "lipstick on the pig." Liesman went so far as to suggest those dropping off the list "may have actually found jobs". Wow, Steve. Where did that come from? Did you pull that right from your arse? What a pathetic propaganda machine for Obama. Joseph Goebbels would be proud to see how far these whores have gone with brainwashing the populace. Bottom line: Job growth is non-existent and as Eastwood said last week "We have to let him go"
    7 Sep 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry, but Joe Kernan is Republican as they come and is not trying dress up the number. Should also point out that Santelli got his two minutes to speak to balance out Liesman.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • I am one of those that dropped off the list. I dropped off because I am no longer employed since 2010. I am now a schedule C person, unaccounted for in this metric, but doing better than when I was employed.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • At 330 million people and 1% population growth per year x 65% workforce participation rate we'd need about 178 thousand new hires a month to absorb population growth into the workforce. So let's see Terry, we're putting about 1/2 the people to work who are coming into the workforce each month.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • You mean Rick got a chance to correct Liesman, don't you?
    7 Sep 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Bingo Snoopy. From a news source:

     

    The decline in the jobless rate, from 8.3 percent in July, came primarily because the labor force participation rate fell to 63.5 percent, its worst level in more than 30 years. The civilian labor force contracted by 368,000.

     

    (CI here) Unemployment as a profession is now part of the progressive new normal.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Good ol' liberal spin. Check out the labor force participation rate or U6 numbers instead. You know, the numbers that are probably closer to the truth
    7 Sep 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Thank God!
    It doesn't matter that the numbers are terrible. It doesn't matter that the economy is floundering. It doesn't matter that recovery is anemic.
    What matters is you believe the poor numbers are good enough to help your preferred political party do better on election night.
    Yea, showing your stripes I'm definitely counting on you and your preferred politicians to look after the best interests of the common citizen, sure I am…..
    7 Sep 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Larry:
    Don't care about Kernan's political affiliation. He is a moron.
    Santelli is one bright guy who has his finger on the pulse.
    Liesman is smart but always has an excuse for why the numbers disappoint.
    7 Sep 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW; Your numbers are correct and have been well known for at least since 2000. This is the result of a transformation of the world economy which is well under way. To understand the process you must first realize that the richest 1 percent controls as much financial wealth as the bottom combined 95 percent. Developed Markets are on track to lose GDP share to Emerging & Growth Markets of 160% by 2050 as can be seen by this graph produced by Goldman Sacks in 2000. http://bit.ly/LZVYyw

     

    The primary reason for this loss of market share is the relative cost of labor. The only way to stop this loss is to reduce the wages and living standards of the Developed Markets labor force to compete with the Emerging Market labor force.

     

    A huge unemployed work force holds down labor demands for wage increases and higher minimum wage legislation. The minimum wage has lost value for nearly 45 years. Think about that sobering fact for a second. Even by raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour, it would still remain below the minimum wage (in today’s dollars) in 1968. Candidate Obama in 2008 promised to push for a $9.50 federal minimum wage by 2011. Have you heard anything mentioned about minimum wage during the election campaign? Even from the unions? No, because it is feared that raising the issue now even if the legislation introduced by Jesse Jackson Jr. was passed it would cause unemployment to increase. The truth is productivity gains by business allows them to get by with fewer workers. The only jobs I have seen advertised on television here where I live are invitations to apply for jobs in homeless shelters and food banks, which is apparently the new growth industry here.

     

    My guess is that this is well understood by our masters who are arranging for us to compete on the world market with the Emerging Markets. Good Luck everybody who may be thinking of asking for a raise.
    7 Sep 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Agree 100%. Now the real question is what "Masters" benefit from the leveling of the world wage rates?
    7 Sep 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • This is true only as long as gov regulates voluntary transactions, via the only tool gov has - force.
    7 Sep 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW; "Now the real question is what "Masters" benefit from the levelling of the world wage rates?"

     

    That's an easy question answered by Grover Glenn Norquist: "I'm not in favour of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."

     

    Business has made no secret of their hatred of government, especially, democratic government which cost a fortune to buy the politicians and finance election campaigns. That's what this transition is all about to replace the present form of government to something like the command economy of China which is so admired due to the high growth rates and a subjugated population that is easily controlled. China is on track to be become the number one economy in the world and our system is thought to be anachronistic and broken to the point where it no longer works.

     

    The goal for the U.S. and Europe is to emulate China and divide the global economy between them. Think about how you would accomplish that and take a look at what is happening around you.

     

    You and I think in terms of today. Governments have super computers which can run game theory programs and predict and model various strategies. I suspect this is the theory that keeps winning.
    7 Sep 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Watch out, the government has "super computers"!
    7 Sep 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Leading indicators inside establishment survey....still positive...2 particular industries....see if you can find them...
    7 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, everything is wonderful unless you're one of the millions who can't find a job or among the millions more who have become so discouraged about it that they've stopped bothering to look. Yeah, it's just peachy.

     

    Nice revision down in last set of fake numbers too...care to tell us why that's also positive?
    7 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • ..or those employed, underemployed or unemployed who has to pay for gas. Gas futures up 4 cents a gallon this morning.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Nope,,,,
    7 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • bbro. Why the big discrepancy from the ADP figures?
    7 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Look at the year over year comparisons...this obsession w.month
    to month change is error filled....
    7 Sep 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • bbro ...?

     

    temp help employment is down, average hours flat, manuf overtime hours down... i don't see it...

     

    Miscellaneous store retailers is up, i think that includes pawn shops... maybe that's it...
    7 Sep 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Labor participation rate is at a 31 yr low...doesn't get much y/y obvious than that....
    7 Sep 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Lowest labor participation rate for this Presidents term.
    For an election year, that is a disaster for a sitting president.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • We may end up with 50% of the population actually employed, but with a 5% "unemployment rate".
    7 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mick,

     

    Wow. I tell you it's weird that a falling desire to find work is the equivalent of hiring when it comes to the jobless rate.

     

    So in theory, we can drive this rate way down by killing/crushing the hopes of the currently unemployed.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Very well said Mick
    7 Sep 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Very well said Mick!

     

    For the life of me I can't see why I should vote to give more resources to politicians and spin doctors who sell numbers like these as positive.
    I don't care about party, it is just plain dishonest.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Everyone should read this one again micmars. This clearly points out the fallacy of the way the unemployment numbers cover up or hide the true unemployment.
    The unemployment of working age Americans could be 90 % but if enough of them had been unemployed for over 18 months the report could indicate an "unemployment rate" of 8.3 % !
    It's sad but true.
    7 Sep 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • You want to see a scary and telling chart, check out the Workforce Participation Rate for Men over the last 60 years. What do you think that trend is all about?

     

    http://bit.ly/Iq2OMU
    7 Sep 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • it is very interesting how the major drops occur right after the census and then it seems to level off as we get to the second half of the decade.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • I think that is already a given Terry. Mitten's time is just not now.

     

    The 8.1 is irrelevant because it comes from shrinking the denominator. Smaller pool; higher water level.

     

    Plus, these numbers are all estimates in any event.

     

    They don't actually count anybody.

     

    Funny that, but we all bet billions on the figures.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the laugh, Ted, about Mitt. You have a Prez that literally walked way when he lost Pelosi and the house. He is gone. He will never step back into his old job as "Acting" president. Golf maybe. No engagement!
    So you figure out what would happen to fix these numbers if by some chance, the folks thought BHO deserved four more years.
    Now, explain to me one more time why Romney is history?
    I just got to hear this...
    7 Sep 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Funny watching CNBS spin this. Now it's bad so they're stumbling for reasons why it is inaccurate (esp. Liesman) and manipulated.

     

    Why don't they bring up these arguments when the number beats? When it beats they have only love for the NFP.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Big bid for Romney contract at 41.3....10000 lots
    7 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting someone painting screens...bid withdrawn
    7 Sep 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • bbro,

     

    You are a logical guy so why do you pay any attention to the Intrade contract?

     

    That same contract had Kerry winning by about a 95% margin the day of election on Nov 2004. Ever since then I have never taken it seriously.

     

    All it is is another reflection of public opinion polls - so one data point mirroring another but appearing independent which it is not.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • I like it when people put money down...skin in the game...
    7 Sep 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • bbro, you really ought to be smarter than that. The volume is way too light and the offshore status of intrade means that it's terribly illiquid and attracts only a certain demographic. I'd also point out that the comments section of the website leans extremely liberal, if that says anything about the general intrade demographic. Intrade means almost nothing as far as predictions are concerned.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Short cover, BBRO.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • 96K reduces unemployment by 0.2 percent. By my calculation, we just need an additional 4 million people to be employed and the unemployment rate will reach zero percent. Easy!!!
    7 Sep 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • This news is mixed. Unemployment in decline and yet the number could be better for new jobs.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • "Unemployment in decline" is not positive when it comes almost entirely from dropouts. You don't have to suggest these numbers are recessionary (ahem, bbro) to be highly critical of the situation.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Would I have liked this number to be better, yes. I do think our economy is going through a major restructuring and there are more people working from home and less people "accounted for" in the traditional metrics. I have given up looking for work too. Why? Because the economy allows me to be able to work from home and make more money.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • That;s correct all those guys that lost manufacturing jobs are now working from home.

     

    Nice spin!
    7 Sep 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Hope you're paying your taxes on your underground economy income.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • I can tell you I pay taxes at a much higher rate than Mitt Romney.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Is your giving higher than Bidens?
    7 Sep 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • My dog donates more than Biden !
    7 Sep 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Could be close, Mark, Biden "donates" a lot of his bullshit out in public too.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • "three letter word....."JOBS" " That was a great one.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • So, now we are SURE to have a NEW borrow more to fund previous borrowing programs.

     

    Oh the joy of going to someone else' party.

     

    Oh, the pain when they call YOU to come clean up afterwards.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • U6 unemployment # is 14.7%. That's the unvarnished truth.
    Retail part-time temporary jobs are being and have been filled in anticipation of Christmas. That's built into this 96K number. How many jobs will fall off in January?
    Be a patriot and go to the mall.:)
    7 Sep 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • As a longtime observer of the establishment media, the drop from 8.3 to 8.1 being spun as good news is simply astonishing. Any prior administration including Jimmy Carter's would have been absolutely flayed for spending their entire term with unemployment over 8%.

     

    Isn't it becoming clear that not only do we have "to let him go," but we need hope for change throughout the establishment media.
    7 Sep 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • What is really interesting is looking at the different spin on news websites:

     

    CNN: "US economy adds 96K jobs, Jobless rate down slightly"
    FNC: "US shows week job growth, adds only 96K jobs"
    CNBC: "New jobs @ 96000, missing expectations"
    Drudge: "8.1%, 96000 added, fed set to pump, 368000 dropped out"
    Huffington: "August Jobs report disappoints"
    7 Sep 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • MSN - "Only 96,000 jobs added in August, unemployment rate falls slightly"
    7 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bloomberg: "96,000 jobs added, unemployment down to 8.1%"
    7 Sep 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • The unemployment rate dropped because people stopped looking for work and are no longer being counted. Not a great way to get that number down
    7 Sep 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tony, if you are a long time observer of the establishment media, you would know that they can put spin on any situation. And they do.

     

    Wait till you hear Ryan talk about Obamma's speech last night. Basically he gave a good speech, but you can be sure that Ryan will rip it apart.

     

    Bottom line: none of these guys is capable of telling the truth. They are just like Goldman Sachs: what's in it for ME? (And, oh by the way, the mupppets (that's you and me) will ALWAYS pay for their profligate ways.)
    7 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Bear. You're right. I'm not really astonished at the spin placed on our economic situation by the establishment media. Mr. Mister Destructo (above) had some media headlines that spun the news negatively, so maybe we have some hope for change.

     

    Bottom line: Although you are going along for the ride as a "mupppet," I ain't. I'm a far-right-wing troll and proud of it.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • The last time U3 was below 8% was in Jan of 2009. The next time it will be under 8% is October 2012.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Soak the rich with a 75% tax rate. it is them or us.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Why not 100%. It's only money.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Within a few minutes after you or anon #12 post something there are 4 likes that hits your comments. I know anon is 'liking' himself and you as well; however, are you two the same person? That aside, instead of wanting to take something from someone else why don't you start a business or something. Envy and jealousness may be qualities of the OWS crowd, but they are not traits to be admired.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • 50% tax rate should be good in cutting the deficit.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • 4 likes coming up.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Gotta have a combo of increasing taxes on rich and cutting entitlement spending to trim the deficit. We'll get neither.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • I think a 500% tax rate would be even better than 50%. By my estimates, about ten times better. For every dollar the wealthy make, we will confiscate not only that dollar but another four that they have locked away in secret offshore accounts. This will have the effect of simultaneously closing the deficit, funding new entitlements for the 99%, investing in our infrastructure, and ameliorating income inequality. It is such a good idea that only a racist, homophobic, xenophobic, ignorant tea party terrorist (sorry to be redundant) could oppose it.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • I would take a simplified tax code that is not thousands of pages in length.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • detto:
    I am certainly not here to defend the rich and I do believe they should pay their fair share. But there is some history here that we should pay attention to. After the market crash in '29, the tax rate for top wage earners went up dramatically. 5 years later we were still in a Depression. Many economists & historians believed that raising the rate on the rich EXTENDED the Depression for several more years.
    "Class warfare" never seems to achieve the expected result, does it?
    7 Sep 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Hello detto,
    Essentially what you said is "Soak others so that I get more/free stuff!"

     

    You demonstrate the exact same traits that you claim drive CEOs and business……

     

    There is one difference though; my partnering with business is voluntary, there are few monopolies so I have an out option for receiving bad service. My partnering with government is coerced, they tell me what I pay, what my level of service will be, and they tolerate no competitors.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Shame on you David. That simple code would put thousands of tax lawyers out of work and increase the unemployment rate. Then again...:-)
    7 Sep 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • The biggest thing that extended the depression was the Fed hiking interest rates much higher than where they stood before the depression. The thinking at the time was that with all those high rates, people will want to start investing in droves. Not! Like in many other things, monetary policy is a thing learned by trial and error.

     

    By the way, there was only a single man in the United States in the top tax bracket -- John D. Rockefeller and he was proud to pay the taxes he was paying, publicly so.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • "Soak the rich with a 75% tax rate. it is them or us."

     

    Amazing, the number of idiots clicking the "like" button on this.

     

    If you do this, then, capital will flee, taking its jobs along, too. But wait! We can prevent that, right? First, we'll just establish exchange controls, so money can't leave the country. Then, when that doesn't do enough to prevent capital and minds from leaving, we can build a huge wall around the borders, complete with armed soldiers, not to keep immigrants out, but citizens in. Now, we can confiscate all wealth and redistribute it to "the people" (oh, don't forget the rake-off for Government czars) and we can provide everybody a great job, via the Government edict.

     

    Hmmm, that sounds a bit familiar.... Oh, yeah, that's right; we've just reinvented the Soviet Union.
    7 Sep 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Not as good as letting the bush tax cuts expire for EVERYONE and the automatic spending cuts to take place. I hope the fiscal cliff happens 100%.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • There are an amazing number of idiots out there.....a truth if ever I read one. I almost signed up under 10 different names to give you 10 likes for that one, Tack.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • WM:

     

    The really scary thing is that these people are enfranchised with the vote.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • I think we should go back to "You gotta own property" to vote.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • WM:

     

    That would be ideal, but I'd even settle for requiring that one pay taxes to vote. If one's tax rate is zero, then so is your voting right.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Eh, not fair to discriminate based on paying taxes. Romney wouldn't have been able to vote up until 2010.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • I would settle for a voting system weighted based on effective tax rate. So that some people's vote would be at a 15% multiple while other's would be a 25% or 35% multiple.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • How about you weight your vote proportional to the effective tax rate you pay, including negative tax rates? Every unemployed person who votes for Obama actually casts some negative fraction of a vote.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • I liked your comment, except unemployed people pay an effective tax greater than 15% on their unemployment compensation.
    7 Sep 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Tack, where's your bravado today? Yesterday you were all over the floor laughing at the pessimists.

     

    This is the fourth time since May that the ADP report has misled where the NFP was going.
    7 Sep 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack " If you do this, then, capital will flee, taking its jobs along, too"

     

    For current news just look at what is now happening in France since they announced a 75% tax rate, companies are shipping as many executives to London to live and work as possible because of this, and the capital will soon follow, England welcomes them with open arms.

     

    For another example look no further then the 10% luxury tax that I believe was enacted here in 1991, contrary to what was expected it very quickly and decisively crippled the luxury car and yacht industry, it didn't take very long for this tax to be repealed, you know to SAVE the jobs. Amazing just how stupid politicians are and how they just dont get it or learn from their mistakes.
    7 Sep 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • How about requiring them to own property like a photo id, that would be a great start
    7 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear of "capital flight" used to hold more water.
    http://bit.ly/RU8n8E
    7 Sep 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Lake:

     

    Actually, I was out at Total Wine reloading the wine cabinet.

     

    I'm still laughing at the pessimists, and so is the market, apparently. But, you just keep glued to that unemployment rate and make your decisions based on that trailing indicator. And, just when the jobs reports finally start to look boffo, and unemployment plunges, then, load up on stocks, so you can be just in time for the next downturn.
    7 Sep 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • enig:

     

    They're not stupid. They know they're more populist idiots out there, who will pull voting levers on that kind of pandering, than folks who have any idea how an economy functions.
    7 Sep 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    I agree money can be made from the market, as long as the market thinks it will be propped up. I actually take a different approach and make money from the multi QE actions which push PMs up. The side benefit is the cost of extraction is also rising, making a bit of a solid bottom. The part I do worry about is the degrading workforce.
    http://bit.ly/QoimCK
    This doesn't include retirees..it is workage only. With in a year or 2 we will hit the point where the working can no longer support the non-working. We have a mass worker glut...this is my worry. Will papaer money be worth much...probably not...heck maybe even gold and silver wont be worth anything...perhaps the currency will be wine! The Honig I'm having is rather excellent tonight...love the angry wines.
    7 Sep 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Market seems to think this is positive, EUR/USD up going to 1.2800 , EU equity markets still up, gold up 35USD as well. Seems this news is being interpreted in different ways. With seasonal correction and the negative revision following later, this is not a sign of recovery IMO.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Very simple..QE3 is more likely now.
    7 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • good speech without good policy is not going to help the economy. - Hope and Please Change
    7 Sep 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Speaking of # of likes....
    Terry..once again totally misreads todays #'s as positive per the 8.1 and has most likes (11) on topic?

     

    ...are there really that many blondes that frequent finacial blogs?
    :)
    7 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • dogs:
    I love your comment about the blondes. Here is more "cold water" to dump on the "recovery is just now coming" theme. Tyler Durden, the editor of Zero Hedge made the following comments today about the NFP number:

     

    -If you account for population growth and the declining participation rate, the actual unemployment rate (not the U-6 number mind you) is actually 11.7% NOT 8.1%. Of course we could not publish that little bit of embarrassing data, could we? Certainly not two months before an election.
    -There are now 25.8 million people in the USA unemployed and underemployed. Gee, and just last week Clint told us it was just 23 million. Simply amazing how strong this recovery is. NOT.
    -There are now 5.2 million part-time workers in the US economy. That is exactly DOUBLE the number from 2008. At this rate all of us will end up being part-timers. Whether we like it or not!

     

    Simply amazes me that people are even considering voting to re-elect this zero. The emperor truly wears no clothes.

     

    Source: http://www.zerohedge.com
    7 Sep 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Hey, there are just as many people in the work force today as when Obama was elected. We need 1% job growth to absorb population growth. That's 178k new jobs per month at 65% participation rate. So we are, what 44 months x 178,000 jobs down from just absorbing population = 7.8 million jobs.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • It is with almost absolute certainty that the Labor Department will "declare" a 7.9% jobless rate in October. It will be "adjusted" for reality after the election but will give Obama the downward trajectory he desperately needs.
    7 Sep 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jim,
    I was thinking the same thing except I think it will be closer to 7%.

     

    I hope we're both wrong.
    7 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)