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Initial Jobless Claims: 382K vs. 370K consensus, 367K prior revised (prior week 365K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 382K vs. 370K consensus, 367K prior revised (prior week 365K). Continuing claims -49K at 3.28M.
Comments (27)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9837) | Send Message
     
    Remember the seasonal factor for this date in the lowest of the year .778....so the seasonally adjusted number can be off...the 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims drops
    558 to 378,568....no recession
    13 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Funny how you can always think of an excuse to tell us that bad news really isn't bad news. Gosh, it's almost like you're the one who is completely out of touch with reality which I guess that qualifies you for a job in the Obama administration, eh?
    13 Sep 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9837) | Send Message
     
    It is perfectly fine with me that you ignore the information....in fact...please ignore
    13 Sep 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • CautiousInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (3058) | Send Message
     
    bbro, as you look at the weekly releases also look at the 4 week average which at 375,000, is noticeably above the month-ago trend which was in the mid to high 360,000 area. The current release was possibly affected by SA along with tropical storm Isaac but the average is moving higher.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    No recession and No recovery.

     

    Enough with the "Obama" comments. This is all bigger than whatever stooge is currently sitting in the White House.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9837) | Send Message
     
    The week to week change in 4 week average is too erratic to generate
    a reliable signal...this from a study done by Toronto Dominion...

     

    "The rate of
    change of the year-over-year measure tends to rise to 19%
    or higher in the 4-8 months period preceding a recession.
    One false signal was sent in 1967 corresponding with an
    economic slowdown not contraction, but it has been an
    accurate measure in every episode since then."
    13 Sep 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    The 4-wk average has increased four weeks in a row.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (5560) | Send Message
     
    Things are so bad, bad news sounds good. Need a change in the White House
    13 Sep 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9837) | Send Message
     
    And that tells you?
    13 Sep 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    That the promises of jumpstarting an economy have yet again proven to be a failure, and that malaise or rather a receding malaise is the order of the day.

     

    The best hope of protecting yourself is to watch economic data with one eye and gov wealth transfer actions with another. This allows you to take advantage of the liquidity sloshing between risk-on and risk-off. If this is too uncomfortable for you or your tax situation results in additional transactions costs, it is best to sit in equities and hope when you need to cash them out the liquidity hasn't sloshed to risk-off costing you 20% or 30% of their prior worth (as many have experienced when the stimulus bubble for housing burst a few years back producing the malaise we are in now).
    13 Sep 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1144) | Send Message
     
    Looks like September is shaping up to be another weak job creation month - 4 week moving average is going up.

     

    "In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 371,750."
    13 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    No recovery not even a weak one. Good time to sell dollar on pullback to 80 - ~ 80.50 area.
    13 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    The new Normal....is much higher than the old Normal..Remember the people working is at a 31 year low....
    13 Sep 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    That is probably correct. New full employment probably around 8 percent. Worthless Keynesian models cannot factor in high gov't regs, high debt, and especially, risk concern of business owners.
    13 Sep 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9837) | Send Message
     
    Construction employment to total employment is at a 66 year low...
    13 Sep 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Which would make sense since the real estate bubble that had its roots starting 80 yrs ago is now seriously deflated. It will take time for technology to give the US society enough income to put these folks back to work. That is assuming more fiscal policy isn't employed to deter the incentives for new innovation by raising its costs by price blind gov regulation or more focus on aggregate demand which will subsidize existing technology.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Pity you have to wait for a major global innovation to create US jobs, when you have extremely profitable US companies (Apple) preferring to manufacture their products somewhere else.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • anomaly1
    , contributor
    Comments (811) | Send Message
     
    Actually technology is replacing workers and eliminating companies with people skills.

     

    Not everyone can be employed as an engineer or scientist or...
    13 Sep 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    No, there is no reason to have the doom and gloom Luddite view. Technology creates more jobs, but it also creates the possibility for people with those jobs to work less.

     

    The reason we aren't seeing this to the degree we could in this economy is because of price blind gov regulations on price sensitive transactions, and in the places where gov regulation is appropriate, the gov regulation isn't regulate (there aren't enough limits on it to make its cost compatible with capital creation).

     

    As such, if you had a free market (a market free of coercion both public and private) what you would get is technology that allows us to utilize natural resources in new and better ways. This allows us to have more and work less, even though more people are working.

     

    Price blind gov regulations become barriers to entry for new competitors. As such, business gets bigger by shutting out competitors. Price blind gov regulations are subsidies for existing businesses and more so existing businesses that are the larger market players. It is a way to cartelize the system that a free market would never allow.

     

    As such, existing businesses get bigger because only they can absorb the fix cost necessary to administer the price blind gov regulation, and big business is less of a risk taker. They innovate less and expand less.

     

    Without the barriers to entry, what you would get is technology that allows for lots and lots of smaller businesses that individually employ less people, but together would employ more people as a whole. So instead of 3 large car manufactures with lots of employees each and less choice overall, what you would get is say 100 car manufactures that each employ only a few people but overall employ more people than the 3 large companies. These smaller companies would also provide more choice and lower costs. The gov price blind regulations are incentives to get rid of employees because the regulations make the employee too much of a liability. Thus instead of gov creating the perfect job, people wind up with no job.

     

    Technology is about working less and having more. Gov price blind regulations are subsidies for not developing technology, thus you work more and have less, assuming there is work for you to do at all.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3531) | Send Message
     
    "Price blind gov regulations become barriers to entry for new competitors. As such, business gets bigger by shutting out competitors."

     

    Agreed. And unions cause the same result by squeezing out the smaller manufacturers like Studebaker, Kaiser, Nash, Willys, Packard, Hudson, et al. Union workers at those companies were hosed.
    13 Sep 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    That's the irony about worker solidarity. Its another example of self interest where the collective is supposed to rule.
    13 Sep 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • anomaly1
    , contributor
    Comments (811) | Send Message
     
    Inflation is hitting the ceiling of what the US can bear... any further QE is counterproductive. What goes up must come down... S&P that is. GLTA
    13 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (4910) | Send Message
     
    How could this be when Regime sycophants declaim that every day in every way things are getting better and better?

     

    But maybe they mean for the Regime and not for ordinary privately employed middle class people. In a Plantation Economy only the Plantation Bosses matter
    13 Sep 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    What I take away from this is the economy is stuck in the mud with the Fed flooring it in an attempt to jar the truck loose when in reality they are just making the situation worse.

     

    Until the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling are resolved there is no chance for a recovery.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10454) | Send Message
     
    Throw in drought, poor crop yeilds, higher food prices, SNAP payments failing to fill the table and we have the makings of an interesting "poverty" dynamic that don't look good.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    don't fool yourself... the economy is still flat at best; maybe not in deep recessionary levels, but many are still NOT back to work and are permanently out of the job market.

     

    There is near-zero economic expansion--only price inflation.
    13 Sep 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    And unprecedented debt expansion.

     

    Remember that flat "growth" in GDP is based on massive fiscal stimulus (7-8% running deficit) and inflation numbers that choose to ignore vital consumer basket components such as food and energy. Take away that government spending stimulus and add in food and energy inflation and real GDP would be in free-fall.
    14 Sep 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
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