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Leading indicator? Egan-Jones has a "hit" ratio in the mid-high 90% range over the past decade,...

Leading indicator? Egan-Jones has a "hit" ratio in the mid-high 90% range over the past decade, with a "hit" defined as S&P and Moody's following a Egan-Jones action with their own move in the same direction. (Downgrade earlier)
Comments (1)
  • Joseph Poma
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    "Additionally, if we rate an issuer at a different level than the other raters and warn that they might take a divergent action and subsequently take a divergent action, then such is not counted as a "miss"." - Direct from Egan... http://bit.ly/O4bOyP

     

    This is a really dumb clause. They can essentially hedge every single call that they make by saying another agency may do the opposite. Thereby eliminating any "misses". Of course there would be an upside bias. Come on folks, basic statistics here!

     

    Egan-Jones = Fail
    14 Sep 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
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