Seeking Alpha

Sep. Empire State Survey: Manufacturing -10.41 vs. -2.0 expected, -5.85 prior.

Sep. Empire State Survey: Manufacturing -10.41 vs. -2.0 expected, -5.85 prior.
Comments (14)
  • Had this surprised to the upside, it would be headline news. But 5x worse that expected, and nearly 2x worse that last month? Not much mention.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • My earlier comment was deleted, but I'm still wondering where bbro is. I appreciate his putting these numbers into context.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • too close to election
    17 Sep 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • The number was ugly, but we have too look at the data as a small sample of the corresponding total outlook.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • which is bad, sounds bullish to me and the algos.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Corresponds with last weeks weak Industrial Production data which was more or less ignored when BB brought out the bazooka.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Industrial Production data was skewed by Hurricane Isaac. Y/y is still positive.
    17 Sep 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
    "WASHINGTON - U.S. industrial production fell in August by the largest amount in more than three years as factories produced fewer cars and other manufactured goods and Hurricane Isaac triggered shutdowns along the Gulf Coast.


    Industrial production dropped 1.2 percent last month compared to July, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the biggest setback since a 1.7 percent decline in March 2009 when the country was in recession.
    Manufacturing output, the most important component of industrial production, fell 0.7 percent, led by a 4 percent drop in output at auto plants."

    "Friday, September 14, 9:28 AM The 1.2% dive in industrial production is the biggest decline since the depths of the financial crisis, though 0.3% of the fall is being attributed to Hurricane Isaac."


    No spin. Just the data. Interpret it as you wish.
    17 Sep 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Allow me to quote:"though 0.3% of the fall is being attributed to Hurrican Isaac". Really? Who is doing the 'being attributed' and why? Any justification or yet another allusion to be erroneously claimed as a 'fact'? No spin? Some of us can tell the difference.
    17 Sep 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Caladesi,


    Here is what I said last week about this laughable justification:


    "So apparently the genius forecasters that come up with these consensus numbers which are supposed to be based upon the whole universe of data, missed the fact that there was a hurricane last month when they came up with their original forecast?


    Really. Come on."


    Even if a portion, 0.3% was correct, that still leaves a very weak report.
    17 Sep 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Y/Y is what matters, month to month can have "statistical noise".
    17 Sep 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • So now we blame factory production on Hurricane Isaac? Will the phases of the moon and our proximity to the planet Saturn be far behind? Does anyone seriously believe there is SO MUCH manufacturing on the Gulf Coast that it disrupted the Empire State Survey? One last question: Are there any serious adults left in DC?
    17 Sep 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone been to the Louisiana and Mississippi coastal region? The only thing they manufacture there is meth.
    17 Sep 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • I was excited to read "New York manufacturing tanks." I thought that somewhere in the Empire State an empty factory in Buffalo or Syracuse was converted into a facility that was producing military tanks.


    Wishful thinking. Back to the reality of the Empire State and its declining population and job opportunities.


    I love NY!
    17 Sep 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
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