The "faltering" jobs market doesn’t mean the economy is sliding back into recession and may...


The "faltering" jobs market doesn’t mean the economy is sliding back into recession and may instead reflect productivity gains, NBER's Robert Hall says. But then again, NBER never actually said the first recession ended.

Comments (19)
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    no, not at all - just forget that 20% + of the country is unemployed or
    underemployed. cash rich companies know they can pay garbage wages and make huge work demands from stressed employees. NBER - its all ok, a good thing until someone at NBER loses their job.
    6 Aug 2010, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (10058) | Send Message
     
    what cracks me up is that its even a question. Except what faltering job market. Its consistently gotten better over the last year. Just b/c it isn't producing 250K jobs a month doesn't mean that its faltering. Companies are just raking in cash by not adding employees. Its very simple!
    6 Aug 2010, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • FLBankster
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Yeah it's gotten better all right...just look at the labor participation rate. That says it all. Real unemployment is north of 20%. Keep whistling past the graveyard if you wish...and good luck keeping clients.
    7 Aug 2010, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • ain't no fortunate son
    , contributor
    Comments (1607) | Send Message
     
    And a 96K downward revision for June which hardly anybody mentions because we're programmed only to look at headline because that's part of the bait and switch. How can you accidentally be off by 96K in any one month? You can't be, that's how... not accidentally anyway. These bureaucratic stooges in all the different departments with their politically granted "jobs for life" just keep revising down nearly every report they put out because they know the market (or I should say the algos, which are after all the only market we have left) only read about the first sentence of any headline number from any report and its off to the races with buy programs funded by the Helicopter. Tack on specious garbage like birth/death models that artificially added 550,000 fictitious jobs from April to June (only 5K in July... what's up with THAT?... heads will roll!) and they can spin a number any way they want... and we the sheeple buy it.
    7 Aug 2010, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    Stone Fox, Your consistent out of touch analysis/opinions, make the fact you're a "pro" not only scary, but perhaps indicative of the level of incompetence in the "financial services" industry.
    7 Aug 2010, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • ain't no fortunate son
    , contributor
    Comments (1607) | Send Message
     
    We get many more freaking productivity gains out of this schittstorm and we're going to be a 3rd world country. For crying out loud, what a crock.
    6 Aug 2010, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2065) | Send Message
     
    Big suprise. Professor from an 'elite' educational institution is proping up reality that would favour the current administration. Mr. Hall, who have your political contributions gone to in the past? What's that Mr. Hall? Did you say 'the democrats'? Thought so. Go ask Krugman if he is available for lunch and then the two of you can see if Ayers can join you.

     

    It's all a joke. Everything that admits the current economic scenario is unexpected. Jobs are saved instead of created, job increases are praised when it includes census hiring, yet job losses are downplayed when the same census jobs are taken out.
    6 Aug 2010, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    Ok, now THIS is the sign of maximum "spin", when job losses are "gains".

     

    The administration's media pump machine and shill networks are working it into "ludicrous speed" (credit: Space Balls)
    6 Aug 2010, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Duude
    , contributor
    Comments (3413) | Send Message
     
    These guys don't use such a simple statistic as a positive real GDP gain to detect a recovery, and they always make a final determination months after everyone else in America has already made the call. As it stands we aren't even near a majority in agreement.
    6 Aug 2010, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • radicall
    , contributor
    Comments (533) | Send Message
     
    Yeah.. funny that people are worried about a double dip when the first one hasn't technically ended. I understand the reason why they don't want to declare the first one over is to be really sure it is over. Who cares about an organization that is just there to tell people what happened 18 months ago?

     

    I don't disagree about the "productivity gains" but that is the scary part - a lot of the jobs lost are never coming back. What are we going to do with the 10% jobless whose services are mostly not required.

     

    Another issue is unemployment - my understanding is that unemployment doesn't retrain people for the most part and if you are going to school, you become ineligible for unemployment. How are these people going to get re-trained in something that is in demand?

     

    Makes my head hurt just thinking about it...
    6 Aug 2010, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ssage
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    The market seems to have determined it's ended
    6 Aug 2010, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • radicall
    , contributor
    Comments (533) | Send Message
     
    Does NBER have a time limit after the recession ends to report it (year, 2 years, 5 years after the recession ends?)
    6 Aug 2010, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • rpodraza
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    What a relief. I honestly thought things were bad!

     

    Thank goodness in its wisdom NBER has let poor me know I have been wrong all along.

     

    I'm sure I misunderstood my ex-wife we she told me she hasn't been able to replace her six-figure job (admittedly, her most redeeming quality during our marraige) for two years.

     

    Time to break out old recordings of "Happy Days are Here Again" and dance around in Zoot Suits and Flapper costumes.
    6 Aug 2010, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • NC Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone really care what the nber says? Show me one trade-able idea or thesis that has ever come out from the nber ivory tower. Go outside and take a look at what is really going on. Quantify that.
    6 Aug 2010, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • apberusdisvet
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    It's really surprising to me the number of thumbs down comments on the truths spoken by real world investors on the actual state of the economy. Either SA gets a lot of government trolls, or there really are some amazingly delusional people out there.
    6 Aug 2010, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Victim of Greenspan
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Robert Hall should buy double long ETFs on margin if he is so confident about his delusions of grandeur. He looks a lot like Roger Smith, the CEO that presided over GM during the eighties as they squandered $billions, quality and market share.
    6 Aug 2010, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (11823) | Send Message
     
    It also may mean more jobs to Asia or South America. I guess that's also 'productivity gains'.

     

    It's time for Americans to start to put American jobs first. If we continue to put 'productivity gains' and GDP over employment, we'll have a civil war to deal with instead of just a series of great depressions.
    7 Aug 2010, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • ebworthen
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Hall seems to have fallen down the rabbit hole and directly into the Mad Hatter's tea party where it is his "unbirthday" and productivity gains somehow give the "unemployed" money with which to pay mortgages, car loans, and healthcare bills.

     

    He does say: “The way we judge the performance of the economy should be its success in growing employment,” Hall said by e-mail. “By this standard, the recovery is weak and faltering.”

     

    Um...o.k., but it doesn't mean we are sliding back into recession, or that it never really ended?

     

    More tea please March Hare!
    7 Aug 2010, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • Dave Wrixon
    , contributor
    Comments (5390) | Send Message
     
    Aren't these so called productivity gains just companies readjusting to the new reality?
    7 Aug 2010, 06:21 AM Reply Like
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