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Initial Jobless Claims: -3K to 382K vs. -9K consensus. Continuing claims -32K to 3.27M.

Initial Jobless Claims: -3K to 382K vs. -9K consensus. Continuing claims -32K to 3.27M.
Comments (19)
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Of course the prior week was revised up so when this one's revised up again next week it will be even worse.

     

    Anyway, the last 6 weeks have a decided upward bias especially on the 4 week average so definitely a relative weakening - this next job's report should be interesting.
    20 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Amazingly, the market dropped on bad news. I guess QEternity has been priced into the market, which means bad news is just that...bad news.
    20 Sep 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6204) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible that person by person people are starting to discover that the theories of a gov stimulating an economy are false, and even the fanatically faithful drop in ranks as each new round of "stimulus" reveals itself for the wealth transfer (theft) that it is. Then even the faithful begin to fear that at some point there really won't be enough wealth to transfer without it creating violent unrest.
    20 Sep 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    It has always been false;however, the 'market' could always have hope that whenever bad news hit, the Fed would step in and provide some sort of stimulating effect. Just the mere talk would lead to a rally. The rallies were probably fueled more by financial equations (cashflow/interest rate), which would increase value of an asset, than by 'the Fed will actually stimulate the economy' mindset. Both the former and latter were based on expectations. Now, expectations have been removed and reality priced into the market at a point of fair value. This is akin to 'Buy the rumor Sell the fact'. Now, all that is left is the top part of the equation - how bad/good news affects cashflow.
    20 Sep 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Padawan learner
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    I wish that was true, but politics is a religion to the faithful.

     

    If your guy is calling the shots the problems were caused by someone else, or else it is really not that bad and their solutions just need more time to work.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    A fitting finish to Recovery Summer III.
    20 Sep 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • CautiousInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (3062) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhhh, the wonders of unconventional monetary policy and benighted fiscal policies at work.
    20 Sep 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10531) | Send Message
     
    The 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims drops 456 to 378105....still no recession...
    20 Sep 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • tom_t
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Keep whistling in the dark.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    We saw the bottom of 2012 unemployment rates at 14.5% (U6 numbers) and it's been on the rise for several months. The trend is UP, not down, despite the spin from potus and the media.
    Look for yourself:
    http://bit.ly/Uhjkrl
    20 Sep 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3533) | Send Message
     
    Continuing claims down. Jobs or giving up?
    20 Sep 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10531) | Send Message
     
    52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted continuing claims
    still moving (slowly) southward,,,,
    20 Sep 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    How does the declining size of the labor force impact this metric?

     

    I imagine that historically speaking we have had a growing labor force especially during the expansion phase of the cycle which is supposed to be where we are today.

     

    Something about the fact that the unemployment rate is falling because of NILF is troubling. What do you think?
    20 Sep 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10531) | Send Message
     
    This metric has predictiveness...but it is a bit slower than as the 52 week NSA
    initial claims number. It is good enough for me to keep it in my group of indicators to follow.I like NSA initial claims number because it real data not samples and by using the 52 week moving average the previous changes in data are included. Most importantly it is probably the best of the high frequency data.
    20 Sep 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (262) | Send Message
     
    Why you can't you guys push this thing up a little higher? We are getting close to the stock market's apex thru 2021.
    20 Sep 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6204) | Send Message
     
    What we might see in the next NFP is a disappointing number (50k to 80k), but unemployment (U3) will fall to 7.9%.

     

    The last time U3 was 7.9% was Jan of 2009. In Oct, one month before the election, the 7.9% may just happen to reappear again.
    21 Sep 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6204) | Send Message
     
    Surprise, surprise, surprise

     

    http://bloom.bg/SOe1tP
    5 Oct 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    What percentage of this job increase is temporary retail for the Christmas season?
    5 Oct 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6204) | Send Message
     
    Hard to say. Apparently, it is hard to tell from the data. I wrote this elsewhere.

     

    This is really strange. In Jan 2003 there were some severe ice storms in the SE that resulted in a suppression of jobs, but when the weather cleared up, people went back to work. So in the months before the gain, there were large drops. Basically a big dip followed by a correction due to weather.

     

    In this case we don't have that. The gain literally comes out of the blue. One possible explanation is that unemployment benefits have finally run out, and so, right on que, people go find work. The jobs they are getting may be very well holiday related. The stores are already putting out Christmas items, so it could be people finding early part time holiday related work.

     

    The other item here is gov employment. 600k increase. Seems to be related to states that have managed to reign in spending, can now focus on hiring teachers. You don't won't droves of teachers causing problems right before an election (can you say Chicago?).

     

    There are some logical explanations, but it is definitely a report that is worthy raising an eyebrow over. All-in-all, the main take away is that this shouldn't change Fed policy. BB has linked QEi to employment, and the bizarre nature of this report could mean some dissappointments later on. So BB will probably still plow on.
    5 Oct 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
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