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More on the shift from fixed income to equities: Jason Goepfert's "smart money/dumb money"...

More on the shift from fixed income to equities: Jason Goepfert's "smart money/dumb money" indicator tells him stock prices could be set to crack. Currently, 67% of the "dumb money" expects a rally, he says, against just 50% expecting it in August when prices were 10% lower. A 3-8% correction (chart) typically follows when sentiment moves to such an extreme.
Comments (24)
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Would be interesting to know what such money indicator is actually based on and where the data comes from.
    22 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • vireoman
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Mr Goepfert goes about his survey very scientifically: Excuse me, sir/ma'am. Do you consider yourself 'dumb money' or 'smart money?' I see. Do you think you're going to make lots of money or lose lots of money in the coming months?
    22 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Sobon
    , contributor
    Comments (829) | Send Message
     
    When strange philosophers declare their dismal doctrines of despair walk 'round your garden and behold trhe constancy of marigold. ..... When stars run riot in the sky we'll know its time for man to die. Those lines by Edgar Guest come to mind whenever I hear anybody talk about a market crash.
    22 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • User 502794
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    3-8% is hardly a crash and even most bulls would argue they would love to see it so they can re-load
    22 Sep 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    USER

     

    This correction will be different. We have way more preppers than you think, way more buyers i see at the coin shop buying PHYSICAL, Plus i might add the gun store has a Home Protection section now !!

     

    Plenty of first time buyers, for guns and coins!!

     

    So with QEi in place imo most that pull out of the market might be going elsewhere with their money this time. That is why i recommend PHYSICAL instead of ETF funds,,,Just my observation and research.

     

    I have asked some neighbors who i think are not conservative and they turned out to be preppers. One is already looking for land as his Brother , who is in a high level Finance position told him a heap of bad stuff is coming our way.

     

    So proceed with caution.

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Bersaw
    , contributor
    Comments (582) | Send Message
     
    I would be surprised to see a significant correction with all the liquidity the fed keeps adding but with equities stalled at the highs they are ripe for profit-taking which will be a buying opportunity,
    22 Sep 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OMmixb

     

    Enough said.. 20% drop !!!

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    My guess is this correction is above 8% easily. If it wasn't an election year you don't want to know what i would predict.

     

    Fiat money vs commodities in the PHYSICAL??

     

    MAP
    22 Sep 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    The "smart money" isn't up that much this year. The predictions of corrections are so obvious - it is a joke kind off. I mean, a 3-8% correction is always in order after a run-up. Isn't it? It just might not come before S&P hits 1500 though. I mean, who knows? I am dumb obviously.
    22 Sep 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Just posted above that CNBC is calling for a 20% correction..

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Clear indicator that it ain't coming.........CNBC and 20%.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    TRUFFEL

     

    Did you read the article, it talks about the financial cliff. But everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

     

    If you honestly think the markets should be this high i would love to know what fundamentals and foreign problems make you feel comfortable in equities right now..

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • mike8599
    , contributor
    Comments (583) | Send Message
     
    You realize you are swimming upstream.. which may be good, if your inflation strategy is commodities. People have been screaming doomsday for so long that it just is worn out.... I'm looking forward to it as a change in pace :-)
    22 Sep 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MIKE

     

    At the prices i bought mine at i have nothing to lose. But i differ with you on a few points. Doomsday may never happen, and as i stated i hope not. But our currency is being deflated daily..So personally i am not swimming upstream since i bought my silver in the teens and my gold under 1k...

     

    I saw this problem years ago. It is simple Economics!! But if our credit rating gets hit again, interest rates will go up. Then the fun starts..we shall see.

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • bolaughlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    The last time the credit rating got hit, bonds went on a tear.
    22 Sep 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • GordonStoun
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    DIPS will occur and will be BOUGHT.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    I just was sent this by a good friend. Figure i pass it on since manipulation wasn't even discussed yet !!

     

    Silver Scandal Fueled With Your Money."

     

    Below article nails "bid-rigging JPM," explains how gold has just done a golden cross, why miners havbe lagged, and that gold and silver are set to explode upward:

     

    http://bit.ly/R80AaX

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    The so-called "dumb money" may be blathering about rallies, but the capital flows continue to show retail funds moving away from equities, so not many folks putting their money where their mouths are, apparently. There's nothing suggestive in recent market behavior or volumes to suggest that markets are overheated and about to spiral off a cliff.

     

    In fact, when all the endless, daily warnings cease, and the naysayers all advise that the market's finally starting to look good, that's when to start worrying and/or trimming positions.
    22 Sep 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    TACK

     

    I am 100% with you. Can't fathom a rally at this point unless it's for a re election..

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • huskers123
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, I see alot of negativity. Also, I have heard a slew of analyst talk about $ still flowing out of equites this last week. I think the enthusiam has to get alot higher by retail investors with extreme inflows. That is when you know we are at a bubble top. We will test 1550. Then it is questionable where things go. If it breaks, it will go alot higher. QE3 will end up inflating the market. If it fails, I am looking at 1390 support.
    22 Sep 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    If it inflates the markets then it inflates the metals as well. Which one would you feel more comfortable holding within a year knowing all we know so far?

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • XRTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (609) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, the "smartest money" which people usually ascribe to Hedge Funds is on average underperforming the market this year. Its probably a good idea not to follow them....
    22 Sep 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Chilton- Silver investigation:
    http://onforb.es/QLfKkk

     

    I gave him credit for investigating, but the more I read, the more I think that this has more to do with hiring more agents and obtaining higher fees than it does fixing a corrupt and broken system. The last line was a complete disappointment, imo.

     

    map
    22 Sep 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Heres something new. Betcha most never heard of the petrodollar?

     

    http://bit.ly/OQgwfa

     

    map...
    22 Sep 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
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