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July Existing Home Sales: -27.2% to 3.83M, vs. expectations of 4.72M. Months supply rises to...

July Existing Home Sales: -27.2% to 3.83M, vs. expectations of 4.72M. Months supply rises to 12.5 months. NAR's Yun: The expiry of the home buyer tax credit hurt sales, but "given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs."
Comments (24)
  • Jason K Roberts
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    As we expected. Awful numbers.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • linenoise
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    Not just awful. Abysmal. GS had the lowest expectations, but even they were above 4M. Over a year of inventory left at pace, even with taxpayer subsidized interest rates. This is double plus ungood.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    Well.....isn´t this something.....another sound bite...how will they spin it....I can´t wait.....
    24 Aug 2010, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • NOCSM
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Well lets hope that the government doesn't try to intervene...I mean fix this "problem". Please let the housing market work itself out.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Swass
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    So if the qualifier is if the economy quickly adds jobs, then we can assume no recovery.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Look's like the end of Keynesian economics is coming quicker than anticipated. "bout time.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • woollyB
    , contributor
    Comments (1019) | Send Message
     
    Not at all. This is vindication time for the Keynesians. The recovery was looking splendid until the tragic failure of political will kept the government from spending enough to keep it going. This is the tack that Krugman has been setting up for weeks if not months.

     

    Of course, it's also vindication time for the Austrians, who have been clinging all along to that crazy idea that you can't borrow and spend yourself out of a debt crisis and into prosperity.

     

    This is why we're still debating the economics of the Great Depression.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • TeresaE
    , contributor
    Comments (3041) | Send Message
     
    "...the recovery was looking splendid.."

     

    Yep,if you are in the top 1% of wealth, or a government/government contractor, or bank, it probably did look pretty damn good; prices falling while your raises and bonuses partied on.

     

    Now for a dose of reality; the top 1%, the government (or contractors) and banks NEED the middle class, whom's recovery was anything BUT "splendid."

     

    The fools CONTINUE to fire their best customers (small business, working man) while increasing their own expenses.

     

    I guess in the new world lower revenue + higher expenses = success.

     

    As we sit back and allow this slaughter to continue, it will eventually catch up to the "chosen" groups.

     

    Good luck with that.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    You should seek mental help immediately... The debate is over psycho.
    24 Aug 2010, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • ebworthen
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Debating?

     

    Great Depression: FDR passes law to confiscate privately held gold, closes banks, socializes employment, deficit spends, expands the notion of "mother government" and is successful despite himself because of the individual American and having a depression during the greatest wealth of resources and expansion of production of all time (and gearing up for and winning WWII).

     

    Our Depression: Banks, insurance companies, corporations bailed out by taxpayer, rescission of stock and bondholder rights, Supreme Court condones seizure of private property to increase tax revenues as well as corporate funding of Congressional candidates. Offshoring of production to anywhere besides the U.S., with consumption zombies and economy based on vapors with debt yet to be taxed that will never be payed and already taxed entitlements that will never be received.

     

    If Keynes or any of his acolytes ran their households according to his theories they would quickly find themselves sleeping under the overpass by night and holding a "will work for food" sign by day.
    28 Aug 2010, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • iknow1
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    Yun is way off...Seasonal high for housing is past and now we look into a slow downward slog through the winter...earliest signs of recovery in housing wont surface till next spring at the earliest...

     

    ik1
    24 Aug 2010, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • TeresaE
    , contributor
    Comments (3041) | Send Message
     
    Name ONE time Yun has NOT been "way off."

     

    In December 2006, he called the downturn a "blip" and had dozens of talking heads out telling us "housing never falls in value."

     

    Yun, is a paid, very biased, very micro vs. macro, based economic shill.

     

    If people and pundits viewed every comment under the harsh light of reality (instead of the soft glow of candlelight and roses) this stuff wouldn't be so "shocking."
    24 Aug 2010, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6783) | Send Message
     
    Yun says "high housing affordability," and in the next breath, "provided that the economy adds jobs."

     

    That's a big "provided that" because it's not happening.
    28 Aug 2010, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Vuke
    , contributor
    Comments (1666) | Send Message
     
    Naturally home sales are off. Everybody is awaiting the next government freebie or another shoe to drop.

     

    Like the proverbial butterfly wings causing a tornado every intervention has consequences.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    "given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing ..." bla, bla, bla.

     

    I pity this guy Yun. Having to come up with a positive outlook on these numbers every month would kill me.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • William Solfin
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Low interest rates won't help housing, better employment and confidence is the key.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    The guy works for the NAR. He has to say rates are good. Next month he'll say the stronger Yen is good for housing.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • mannettino
    , contributor
    Comments (1065) | Send Message
     
    "Low interest rates won't help housing, better employment and confidence is the key"

     

    With that one simple statement, you demonstrate that you understand more about the economy than anyone in the current regime in DC. Maybe there will be more job openings there soon... ;-)
    24 Aug 2010, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • TeresaE
    , contributor
    Comments (3041) | Send Message
     
    NAR's Yun: The expiry of the home buyer tax credit hurt sales, but "given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs."

     

    bwaaaahaaaahaaaaa

     

    and if "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas.

     

    It ain't Christmas folks.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • apberusdisvet
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Obama's "Recovery Summer" is a record bummer. PPT working overtime this morning; Dow below 10,000 for what, like 3 seconds? Wonderful delusional fusion folks; politics and economics; boy are we screwed.
    24 Aug 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • William Solfin
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Some points from "The Big Picture":
    • National median existing-home price was $183,700 in June 2010 — 1% higher than June 2009.

     

    • Distressed homes were 32% of sales, vs 31% in May 2010 and June 2009.

     

    • First-time buyers purchased 43% of homes in June, down from 46% in May, according to an NAR survey. The decrease in the purchase of starter homes helps to explain the price rise.

     

    • All-cash sales were at 24%.

     

    • Total housing inventory rose 2.5% to 3.99 million homes — an 8.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up half a year from May.

     

    • Unsold inventory remains 12.7% below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

     

    • Existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 7.9%, but fell in all 0ther regions: Down 7.5% in the Midwest; Off 6.5% in the South; and down 9.3% in the West.

     

    www.ritholtz.com/blog/
    24 Aug 2010, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Are you a paid pumper?? Oh, i know, " favors " . The big picture? No one reads that shit because nobody even bothers to comment fool. Waste of blog space.
    24 Aug 2010, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Zmartmoney
    , contributor
    Comments (1216) | Send Message
     
    The home buying season is just about over. 1) People don't like to move in the winter. 2) School is back on for a large part of the home buying public. It goes downhill from here, every year, like a clock ticking. December is the worst, except for January... Commenter was correct that it has no chance of picking back up until Spring. Moreover, the UNCERTAINTY in what the gubmint might do TO you is very high. The lame duck Congress is talking about doing things, on their way out, you know, after being voted out - they want to use their remaining political muscle to do us some REAL damage. These people are whacko. Watch out for them - if they thought they could tell you that all the wealth belongs to the gubmint, and they'll tell you how much you get, they would. They're hoping to do that soon. The RINOs do too, but they'll stick the shiv in much slower. Scumbags. Drain the swamp, again, and again.
    24 Aug 2010, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • allycatt2
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    The Banksters control the system,until the bezel is removed from the markets, we are doomed.
    28 Aug 2010, 09:12 AM Reply Like
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