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Apple's (AAPL -1.5%) sell-side fans are quick to attribute the weekend's lower-than-expected...

Apple's (AAPL -1.5%) sell-side fans are quick to attribute the weekend's lower-than-expected iPhone 5 sales on supply constraints. Piper's Gene Munster notes Apple's retail inventory is half what it was at the time of the 4S launch, and says his prediction of 8M sales was based on a belief Apple's figures would include all pre-orders (apparently not the case). The WSJ reports this morning that retail partners such as Best Buy and Target were given limited supplies at launch time.
Comments (29)
  • sub-par phone = sub-par sales figures
    24 Sep 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • It's always the sign of the end when you sell everything you have on hand to sell.

     

    Did you see how many Android fanboys are dumping their android phones? Huge.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • We must all try to remember that those iPhone sales figures were by analysts, not by Apple. Apple's opinion and judgement are truly the only ones that count as many/most analyst opinions are "affected" by moral and ethical conflicts of interest and financial self-concern.

     

    Grain of salt, as always.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • A voice a reason. Couldn't agree more.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Right on, but in this investment climate where the companies guidance is assumed to be worthless until an analyst corrects it up or down, it seems good investment strategy would entail playing the dip or gain based on a "perceived" miss in this case

     

    So sad!
    24 Sep 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Better phone and more delivered tomorrow.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • [sarcasm]Oh no, Apple is done for! [/sarcasm]

     

    They sold out their entire supply and didn't include all preorders placed. This is not surprising or concerning.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Is the operative word "placed" or is it cancelled? The cliff awaits!
    24 Sep 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • yawn, another speed bump.
    24 Sep 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • No complacency here!
    24 Sep 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Apple called up Gene and said here are the numbers Ha..Ha..Ha..
    24 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • I am under the impression that Apple shipped the number of iPhones it felt it should for the opening. If "analysts" came up with their own expectations, it would not be the first time they have done so.

     

    Based on what Apple expected, and shipped, the sales have been wonderful.

     

    There will be articles saying that Apple's Q4 numbers won't be as big as projected based on the lackluster sales. Give me a break!
    24 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • A buying opportunity.
    24 Sep 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • For what it is worth, I think Apple's 4th Qtr (9/30) would have been terrible if they didn't get some iPhone 5 numbers in there. Everyone knew about the iPhone 5 coming and I suspect the iPhone 4s numbers were falling off a cliff. Steve Jobs would not have cared, but I believe Tim Cook is more in tune with shareholders (dividend, buy back to preclude dilution, etc).
    Last year when 4th Qtr earnings were released (although everyone knew the iPhone 4s was just around the corner), the stock took a big hit. This year we should be OK.
    We can look forward to a nice pop from the announcement of the next "event" which should be the iPad Mini to the official launch date, then probably a pullback until late December (the fiscal cliff has to get resolved before year end or there will be massive selling to lock in the 15% tax rate), then a rise probably to around $800 by the time earnings for Qtr 1 (12/31) are released, and then the crystal ball goes foggy.
    24 Sep 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • It's an accounting gimmick.... They book the enough sales for a blow out quarter (June-Sep), then booking the rest after October 1st.

     

    However, if the supplies from Foxconn (and other downstream suppliers) falters, then it'd be bad because buyer enthusiasm will diminish over a short time.
    24 Sep 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • A miss?!? And a sell off?!?!? Really. The best investing minds out there and this is a selling situation. Sold out! Making 2 million more a week (I read). Another couple of million before the quarter end, another 5 million+ before the Quarterly meeting. Mini iPad in the offing.

     

    Maybe the FoxCon incident has them (institutions) concerned about supply interruption.

     

    Another respected Chief Investment Officer on Bloomberg this a.m. cited how "ridiculously cheap" Apple is, and that was before the 8:30 dip.

     

    DanoX said is all really.
    24 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • This is hilarious! Probably the same sellers that were selling at 700 are now buying at 688 re-realizing that at 700 is undervalued...and at 688 it is even more undervalued. The reality is breaking from Google Maps was the best Long term move. They should have been investing in Maps years ago so this could have been a finished product. I will put that on Jobs. I know heresy, since he was perfect. I am so happy we have a supply chain master running the helm.
    24 Sep 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • supply constraints?

     

    or maybe, with more phone options, more people than expected are switching to other brands.
    24 Sep 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Every Apple sell-off creates fresh new buying opportunities. I hold a fairly sizeable number of Apple shares, so I spent the weekend doing my own research. I visited three different Apple stores and they had all sold out of their first 2 shipments of Verizon and AT&T phones that they'd received on Friday. I revisited 2 of the stores on Saturday and you couldn't even move it was so packed. I've been in Apple for several years now and can remember all the obituaries written each quarter. Q1 (December end) figures to be the most profitable in history so I hope the selling now continues to drive the short-term price down.
    24 Sep 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • We still don't really know why Apple dumped Google Maps at this time, other than the speculation that they can't rely on Google (a competitor)) to provide a key function. When Apple partnered with Google for YouTube and Maps for the first iPhone, Google wasn't competing with Apple.

     

    I suspect that they had a 5 year license agreement that expired, and Google's terms for renewal weren't in Apple's favor. Google may have been convinced that Apple would be foolish to dump Google's mapping data. Apple's maps WILL get better, especially if users send in the error corrections.
    24 Sep 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • They dumped google maps for a variety of reasons. One of which is that the google map app on the iphone totally sucked. No turn by turn directions. No voice -- when you are driving you need these features. Also google maps has great and extensive data but a pretty lousy routing algorithm. How many times has that routing algorithm taken you to the wrong place ? Or gotten you close but blown the last little stretch?

     

    My contacts inside google tell me that they don't care. That they collect their data, feed it into their algorithm but they don't worry much about improving the algorithm.

     

    Apple is well motivated to make a better routing algorithm and, in time, will have just as good data. I hope so. I need a good maps app when I drive and damned if am going to pay a monthly fee for one.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • 4s had supply-constraints too during the launch weekend. Regardless of analysts, this is a meaningful datapoint for estimating YoY iPhone growth this year. And it points to about 30%.
    24 Sep 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Definite buying op as four different negative buzzes came out in one day, but none of them have any serious bearing on the ongoing success of Apple, which is astounding and makes the stock very cheap and undervalued. All of these "problems" should hagve the same reaction, "what do you expect?", for the world to be perfect? For 50 million iPhones to suddenly materialize and not have to be manufactured over 3-6 months? And why wouldn't tensions rise at those Chinese plants which make not only Apples but thousands of other products? If we didn't have those plants the iPhones would cost $1000. And as for the mapping problem, well did anyone expect Apple to magically do as well as Google when Google is known for its mapping obsession? That will evolve over time, and no Apple user is going to get lost in the meantime. Plus, don't forget all kinds of big catalysts coming up soon especially the mini iPad, which will also cause lines around the block and more demand than supply. But people, that is GREAT THING, Apple has more demand than supply. Perfect for any company and apple may be the only one in the world with that "problem". So as Kramer says "buy! buy! buy!". Within 4 months this stock should be well over $800.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Apple and Google are competitors, obviously, The Android system is the only challenge to Apple in the world really. So clearly, they have a testy relationship. Apple would love to do without any Google products, and in time, they may be able to, but it is a gradual process. None of us know how it will all unfold over time, but rest assured, that Google needs Apple at least as much as the opposite, and noe of this is going to cause any serious problems for Apple. The bad press today was overblown. People were loking for any weakness in the other magnificant iPhone 5 and they finally found one. But it should not have been a surprise to anyone and will have a very small effect on Apple's success going forward. In fact, in time, none at all.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • The big future move for Apple could be to form (or buy, or ally) an entire new search engine so that they do need Google at all. Google makes billions off Apple customers using Google search engines, and thus, unless the two companies can come to an agreement and truce, expect Apple to continue moving away from Google and to see Android and Google as their arch enemies. But in this longterm battle, advantage Apple. Today was a good day to sell Google stock and buy Apple. Apple is a better company and cheaper.
    24 Sep 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Hmm. There is this map thing. Then there is the 'underperform' first weekend sales. And the shut-down at foxconn. Imagine the stock should have fallen at least 100 points. Guess investors don't understand that apple is doomed, that 700 and change was it's forevermore peak. Who knows? The stock could hit 250 by christmas as one woebegone analyst has it. I mean the market is pretty dumb. LOL
    24 Sep 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • I kinda wonder if some of the more irrational aapl forecast are deliberately being cast in order to have apple NOT meet "expectations" ? Given all the caveats on the 5 million sales number, the downside reaction is way overblown. The larger question however is Cook in over his head and is he hastening the signal on the post Jobs era ? The general consensus was the iPhone 5 would still capture the sizzle and sales as Jobs last participatory devise. The phone is great, but the roll out (iMaps ? Please !) has been so flawed that it washes away illusions, waking investors to the inevitable: is this a top and when should I get out ?
    25 Sep 2012, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • Headlines from talking heads, was Apple down on disappointing sales.
    Obviously if you are on this site you know the real story, but once again the msm crowd makes the news, as it sees it.
    26 Sep 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sorry I don't read fairytales.Perhaps an overturning or decreased award from the "sham" samsung legal case will enlighten you and you can begin to read nonfiction.
    27 Sep 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
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