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Nokia (NOK +0.2%) will post a €0.25/share loss next year after losing €0.34/share this...

Nokia (NOK +0.2%) will post a €0.25/share loss next year after losing €0.34/share this year, predicts BMO's Tim Long, who's downgrading shares to Underperform and valuing the company at just $2/share (purely on account of its cash and patents). Long predicts Nokia's Lumia phone sales will come in at a disappointing 20M in 2013, a figure that will fail to offset an expected 15% drop in industry feature phone sales. (prior downgrades)
Comments (18)
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    Do these guys take into account NavTeq's deals with Apple, Amazon & Ford?

     

    http://bit.ly/PDxIpp

     

    "As part of the agreement, Apple paid Nokia a one-time sum of about $600 million, and licensed the infringed patents from Nokia to the tune of €8 in royalties per iPhone sold. At current exchange rates, that works out to about $10.60 that Nokia made from the sale of every iPhone."
    25 Sep 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    "a figure that will fail to offset an expected 15% drop in industry feature phone sales"

     

    Should we take him seriously when he doesn't state where this 15% drop is coming from? I suspect he is extrapolating prior share losses of featurephones to smartphones forward, but that number seems huge, and without any support to the comment, I'm inclined to write off his opinion as abject guessing.

     

    I think Nokia is going to catch a lot of these 'analysts' by surprise. Yes, I'm long Nokia.
    25 Sep 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    I can't vouch for BMO's forecast, but feature phone sales are definitely falling. Smartphone sales are expected to be up over 40% this year, while total phone sales are only expected to grow in the low single digits. Feature phone sales are the clear loser.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    So, you are basically of the opinion that of what phone sales will occur, the vast majority of those upgrading from a dumbphone will upgrade to a smartphone, which is a fair guess. I'm just wondering if there is any kind of figures or trend trajectory one can use to inform one's opinion.

     

    I have a hard time believing for example that featurephones, and in particular Nokia's Asha line, which has shown strong numbers, will suddenly be a loser, unless something else is going on, like for example data plans in the markets where these products are popular have suddenly decreased dramatically in price.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    It really depends what you define as a smartphone.
    25 Sep 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • sreimer77
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Please tell me why someone on an analog or 2G network would pay $550 for a smart phone?
    27 Sep 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Origa
    , contributor
    Comments (543) | Send Message
     
    @SA Editor Eric.
    I believe your comment about feature phone is incorrect.

     

    The world markets are in a decline and therefore more and more people cannot afford a smartphone but a feature phone. You also has to take into account that Nokia managed a small QQ increase and has renewed many of their feature phones to be more competitive than before.
    These new phones has yet to show themselves in Nokia earnings.
    30 Sep 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • BornIn87
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Without google I wouldn't know what BMO was. Definitely don't know who Tim Long is. In my book this guy's opinion gets about as much weight as any random seekingalpha user's would.
    25 Sep 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • WhatdoIknow1
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    When your shorting ( Nokia 15% short ). You only see what you want. This guy is no different. Nokia's windows market share is increasing. Apple is decreasing. Nokia beat last quarter. Apple missed it's last two quarters. Nokia's phone is a world beater. Apples is a step back.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5524) | Send Message
     
    More dark clouds FUD from analysts paid by the click their BS generates. We know Q3 2012 reported in mid-October is going to be rough but how's Asha and NSN doing while we wait for W8 and WP8? Then it's all about Lumia 820 and 920 starting on October 29th. What happened to all those Nokia's out of cash articles?
    25 Sep 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    Why would analysts, who earn lots of money by (short)trading, share their true visions with the whole wide web?? Their only interest is to make many (private) investors act the exact opposite way they do. So, this downgrade to underperform actually means an upgrade to outperform. After years of following stock markets I still have yet to read an analyst forecast which actually turns out to be true.
    25 Sep 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • pureview8
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Great, another know-nothing analyst trying to predict the future.

     

    Here is a recent prediction from a bunch of analysts: they predicted iphone5 sales for the first weekend would be 10m units. Apple confirmed the sales was 5m.

     

    Not even close!
    25 Sep 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • wcz83
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    As the saying goes, buy when people ask to dump, sell when people ask to hold, be a contrarion..
    25 Sep 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • whiteshirtonly
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    The same kind of analysts who were giving Apple dead when Jobs came back in the late 90's.

     

    Do they believe in intelligence, R&D and market / game changers?
    25 Sep 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • barcaboyvn
    , contributor
    Comments (275) | Send Message
     
    See how cameras between Lumia 920 and Iphone 5 compete here. It's real:

     

    http://engt.co/PWHu63
    26 Sep 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jay Murphy
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    The risk/reward from the current share price is definitely in favour of being long.
    26 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wcz83
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    Nokia Lumia 920 Windows Phone 8 Smartphone goes on pre-order for £470?
    A news from itproportal just mentioned that Digital-phone, the first retailer in the UK will about to Nokia WP8 smartphone on pre-order
    26 Sep 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • wcz83
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    Australia operators Telstra will be selling L920.
    Optus & Vodafone will sell L820.
    Nokia's Australian press staff said pricing and availability details will be announced at the end of October.
    27 Sep 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
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