Seeking Alpha

Initial Jobless Claims: 359K vs. 376K consensus, 385K prior revised (prior week 382K).

Initial Jobless Claims: 359K vs. 376K consensus, 385K prior revised (prior week 382K).
Comments (23)
  • 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims...


    12/23/11 406,592
    3/24/12 395,167
    6/23/12 385,280
    9/23/12 377,630
    27 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • I am sure this will be adjusted higher next week.
    27 Sep 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Following the 52 week moving average takes care of the adjustments...
    27 Sep 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • It doesn't matter whether it is or not. The trend is clearly down. Some people cannot see what is in front of their noses due to their gloom and doom attitude.
    27 Sep 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • another excellent number. this is good news.


    27 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • He always forgets to add an * defining why...


    * Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low

    27 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Gallup 30 day rolling average..Payroll to Population 9/25/11 43.6%...9/25/12 45.4%.
    27 Sep 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Man is this country in sad shape if we have to go down to the Payroll to Population to find good news. If I recall correctly, this metric has been around for less than 3 years and is conducted by Gallup via phone interview - does BLS even verify?
    The monthly reading can spike up or down and I have yet to hear one economist celebrate this statistic. If Gallup is involved you know the validity is questionable.
    But alas, if a baby boomer drops off the radar and a college kid gets a job rolling burritos at Chipotle, then the USA economy should roar back before Thanksgiving and we'll be at maximum employment. LOL.
    Keep dreaming and remember, Puff the Magic Dragon lives by the sea.
    27 Sep 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • A better look at the true employment situation.



    58.3% of the population is employed. Down a notch from the month before. Stuck at the late 70's levels. Wake me if this number ever gets above 60% again.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • I will say corporations have cut..they cut last year....and yes millions have "left" the they say.....but millions more on foodstamps and disability .....go figure....tell me how that works other than gaming the system...
    27 Sep 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Finally seeing some improving numbers in Pennsylvania and New York,,,,
    27 Sep 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Durable goods plunge. Keep dreaming that the economy is improving. It isn't.
    27 Sep 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Job claims - better.


    Durable goods - bad.


    GDP - bad.


    It all adds up to malaise, which means the Fed will continue to transfer wealth to the financial markets, which will be good (at least for those that can purchase financial assets).
    27 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Hooper,


    The economy is bouncing back. You see it in construction and housing. You see in services. Manufacturing is only 12% of US GDP and yes it down, but everything is improving, including consumer spending is up.
    27 Sep 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Bouncing? Depends on how high the bounce and how long. A paralyzed person can be said to be recovering if they begin to wiggle a single toe, but if it takes 15 years before the person is up and running after the doctor promised it would only take 6 months for a solid recovery, I'd say its time to declare the doctor's promise was broken.
    27 Sep 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • GDP is a lagging number - you are looking in the rear vision mirror
    Durable goods is highly volatile month to month - discount it


    This is indicator weekly jobless - on a 4 week basis is about as close as you get to the economic pulse.


    27 Sep 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jobless claims are also volatile. Either way. None of the data indicates a robust recovery is in process, which is a real shame, because I wish it did.


    What I would like to see is GDP greater than 5%, jobless claims consistenly under 350k, and durable goods positive. I would also like to see NFP around 450k per month. When I see numbers like that, then I will share your rose colored glasses view. What we have now is austerity, plain and simple.
    27 Sep 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Here is a little chart that helps explain what we are up against, and why current performance is definitely akin to a little toe wiggle.


    Set the chart for 10yrs, and then picture an anchor from the Titanic tied to a row boat.

    27 Sep 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Very well said AIP. The economy is rebounding faster than any one thought. It is clear the economy is doing pretty good.
    27 Sep 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • You guys have pretty austere expectations. We can't let a little thing like human suffering bother us though. If you have wealth being transferred your way at the expense of others, well then, that can just be disguised with rhetoric about the "common good" and "a bottom up approach".
    27 Sep 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Well, 5% would be dangerously high.
    27 Sep 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Boy you doom and gloomers are something else. Its amazing how fast the peasant mindset takes hold. How fast, what should be free born citizens, will accept the yoke of gov imposed mediocrity because they instill a little fear in you to keep you compliant and in line so you can feed the largess of the ruling elite. Jean Baptist Colbert would love you guys.


    Don't be afraid. The potential for human ingenuity is boundless. Its like the old saying, "Innovation picks up where gov regulators leave off".
    27 Sep 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • No doubt all that QE has helped the UE numbers improve---INFINITE SIMALLY.


    If you had just taken all that free QE banker money and used directly to hire people, you'd have the lowest unemployment in US history... too bad for the average Joe it doesn't work that way, huh?
    27 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)