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More on Q2 GDP: Normally a sleeper of a report (Q4 is expected to begin in 4 days), not one of...

More on Q2 GDP: Normally a sleeper of a report (Q4 is expected to begin in 4 days), not one of 70 economists surveyed by Reuters predicted such a massive downward revision. The BEA says the change reflects a downward revision to inventories, personal consumption expenditures, and exports.
Comments (8)
  • Papa of Four
    , contributor
    Comments (613) | Send Message
     
    Wrong drought caused 1/2% downward revision to GDP.
    SHould have been expected and markets have already factored in;
    27 Sep 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    "... not one of 70 economists surveyed by Reuters predicted such a massive downward revision."

     

    All together now...

     

    "Unexpectedly!"

     

    I doubt that many economists can predict sunup or sundown accurately, much less stuff about the economy.
    27 Sep 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Hitesh Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Q2 is so old news, we were in a brief recession and are now already on our way to growth in the 4th qtr. Just look at the lines at the Apple store...what slow down?

     

    The rioting of business's and vehicles in China and Japan will lead to a surge in new demand as they re build and restock, the same goes with Spain and Greece

     

    just BTFD...oh wait their are no more dips, ok just buy
    27 Sep 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Ted Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (607) | Send Message
     
    There are probably a thousand analysts who cover AAPL...not ONE of them comes within 25% of getting the number right each quarter. (How difficult can it be to count widgets?).

     

    So when it comes to forecasting the economy, well....maybe we should just accept that the scholars that we rely upon to estimate the estimates are fallible.

     

    (Is that polite enough?)
    27 Sep 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Hitesh Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Your too polite Ted. An eCONomist is just that a CON man who thinks he has a crystal ball. They pretend to use sohisticated models which will tell them whats going to happen. They are all hit or miss, every now and then one will get lucky for a few quarters before he or she gets cold again
    27 Sep 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1146) | Send Message
     
    "not one of 70 economists surveyed by Reuters predicted such a massive downward revision"

     

    Perhaps it is because the economy is a political issue as much as it is a collation of data. Who controls the data?
    27 Sep 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Papa of Four
    , contributor
    Comments (613) | Send Message
     
    They are just all very forgetful. This was Q2, when they were reporting the drought, all the analysts said " the drought could severely impact GDP", but 3 months later they completely forget to put it in their models as it is no longer news. They are all right now kicking themselves saying " oh yeah, the drought, should have remembered that!!!" Truth is the are all human, and apt to react to each days news and a day later it is all factored in same as the MARKETS. They are never any good at looking forward, but can at least analyze what went wrong.
    27 Sep 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    Drought impacts Q3 not Q2
    27 Sep 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
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