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Chicago PMI: 49.7 vs. 53.0 expected, 53.0 prior. Employment 52.0 vs. 57.1 prior. New orders 47.4...

Chicago PMI: 49.7 vs. 53.0 expected, 53.0 prior. Employment 52.0 vs. 57.1 prior. New orders 47.4 vs. 54.8 prior. Prices paid 63.2 vs. 57.0 prior.
Comments (33)
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    as BBRO will say...."you got to look at the trend"

     

    under 50....lowest since 2009.....wrong way...this will pause...stop...but not the Bernanke...his 40 a month will soon be 100 a month
    28 Sep 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Does not below 50 = contraction (another word for recession)? /sarc tag
    28 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    Weak...weak...weak....... ISM next week dicey....But...Ah never mind
    28 Sep 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    Do some more research on ISM numbers and what constitutes a recession call....
    28 Sep 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    It is a diffusion index and when the current trend is GDP at 1.3% anything signalling contraction is not a good sign regardless of the amplitude. A reading in the low 40's range would be a catastrophe. The recent 3 mth trendline is declining at an accelerating rate.

     

    So what is going to change in the next month to reverse the trend after the recent IP and durables numbers?

     

    I don't see it but perhaps if there is something you see that is making you optimistic please share it with us.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    With an activist Fed, it will be difficult to have a recession of any real depth or length. That said, this PMI number is awful.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    No..I will just go to the grocery store and gas station to pay high prices to cashiers who once had full time good paying jobs. I do not need some dumba** economist who bows at the alter of a defunct economist(Keynes) to tell me what a recession is. You asked for proof of stagnation..here it is baby. And yeah.. I feel better, much better..if I ignore the economic mess in this country.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    @ mickmars: I disagree with you. The Fed has been very active with monetary policy actions and yet we are still scraping the bottom with a downward trend. Monetary policy can only go so far. Reducing interest rates will not spur any growth at this point and the velocity of money has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2008 (all that dead money the Fed pumped into the system). Fed policy has limits and people should recognize that, even if the Fed can't. The looming fiscal cliff will also negatively impact business activity since Congress doesn't seem to care about it. Businesses will be proactive to be on the safe side.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    I hear your arguments on the headwinds, but Fed Policy has zero limits. They alone have the power to drive up the cost any asset. We'll continue to get anemic growth, with crippling inflation to go along with it. We won't technically be in recession, but it will feel like it to the common man.

     

    Also, there will be no fiscal cliff. Repubs will cave to Obama (again) so they can get their tax cut extensions for the rich and excessive defense spending. Count it.
    28 Sep 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, Obama, this economy is really starting to turn around. Except is going down, not up like you keep telling us. You must be really mis-informed. Step 1, fire all you economic advisors. No wait, the really good ones already quit. Step 2, find some good economic advisors that will work for an economic light weight. No wait, only about 40 days to find them. That won't work. Step 3, Just keep putting out the propaganda, some voters, ignorant of what is happening to America will still vote for you. Ah, good plan.
    28 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    This all started long before Obama was selected as head muppet.

     

    Voting for Romney and his "Bomb Iran and give more tax cuts to the rich" economic recovery policy won't help.

     

    Stagflation is here. Permanently.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • donjgen
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    American is 25th out of 37 industrial countries in math, so don't expect the election to hinge on economics. If Obama says the economy is turning they believe him.
    28 Sep 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6028) | Send Message
     
    The American electorate seems to have a pretty good grasp of what they want out the upcoming elections.

     

    http://bit.ly/UyuSSL
    28 Sep 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    The major leading indicators of activity are showing a negative turn and given the 1.3% GDP figure from last quarter there isn't much room for further decline.

     

    One of the funniest headlines I have read recently was this one from Bloomberg yesterday:

     

    "Plunge in Goods Orders May Restrain U.S. Expansion: Economy"
    http://bloom.bg/TMgBXD

     

    Ya think!

     

    Anyway, they tried their best to put some type of positive spin on an amazingly horrid report. I wonder who the writer will be supporting in this election.
    28 Sep 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mad_Max_A_Million
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    GaltMachine, if B.O. wins, you get 4 more years of QE and slap-stick comedy from the POTUS - He called himself "eye candy" on the view, according to reliable sources.

     

    If Mitt wins, he will try to light a fire under the economy that, if he is successful, will send inflation thru the roof.
    QE is a know time bomb that hits us when the economy starts smoking.
    So, you have to ask yourself the question, will the 47 percent moochers on the dole (no federal income taxes) all vote for their free stuff, or will sanity rule the day? If you know the answer before election day, you will do just fine.
    28 Sep 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    And the so-called "market" is still above 1,400. Complete disconnect from reality. Wake me at 1,200 when I can buy some value again...
    28 Sep 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    If we are weakening into a recession we should see the 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims turning up ...but it is not....
    28 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    No what has jump is people forced to take low paying jobs.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Shovel ready jobs
    28 Sep 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Sanitylost
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    Its not unusual for claims to lag a recession for a long time. Sometimes we are almost out of recession before claims tick up. Its called a lagging indicator for a reason.
    28 Sep 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    You have it backwards....initial jobless claims are leading....I think you are refering to the unemployment rate
    28 Sep 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Sanitylost
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    companies usually don't lay people off until well into contraction territory. It is you who has it backwards; The first step is usually a freeze on hiring then comes the layoffs. This coming recession (if its not already here) will not see the magnitude of layoffs from the last simply because companies are already short staffed as it is and are reluctant to lay more people off. I don't expect claims to tick up until near the bottom.
    28 Sep 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    So you plan to buy stocks when initial jobless claims start ticking up??
    28 Sep 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Sanitylost
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    Stock timing as you know isn't that simple but it is usually a good idea to start thinking of buying stocks when everyone else thinks things have gone to $hit, so possibly yes I would be a buyer.
    28 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9738) | Send Message
     
    Good luck...
    28 Sep 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • sean.parmelee
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    Amazing how many people make claims like this without bothering to determine what the facts are.
    1 Oct 2012, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2810) | Send Message
     
    Due primarily to the FatCat financial goobers' shenanigans, 12 million jobs just evaporated over the last several years. It will take at least Five YEARS before that catastrophe is reconciled.

     

    In the meanwhile our "Oil Based Economy" is out of oil. Our exports to China have fallen into the abyss and our national IOUs are climbing to a critical level.

     

    We have abandoned training young people in skilled jobs and don't put big bucks into education where it's needed.

     

    This melt down will not stop until we figure out what this country's going to do when it grows up.
    28 Sep 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Venkata Subbu
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    "out of oil"?

     

    We are awash in it! There is so much out there they dont know where to put it!
    28 Sep 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Ray Lopez
    , contributor
    Comments (1526) | Send Message
     
    I think we are out of oil. You may be thinking of natural gas, which they are finding more of due to fracking (for now).
    28 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (827) | Send Message
     
    Fracturing technology is a large factor in oil recovery as well. It's been done for decades.
    28 Sep 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    weak but...really who cares about one number..

     

    this is a sentiment index - they say it is a good read and as close to actual numbers as you can get but I have some doubts - I prefer real numbers

     

    jobless claims, the ratio of job seekers to vacancies, the JOLTS data are much more important in understanding the pulse.

     

    corporate profits are the driver of stock prices and they are not falling off a cliff

     

    further you cannot have a recession - you cannot - when the corporate sector is awash in money - recession/contractions happen when Company's cannot finance themselves short term - think 2008 - that is not happening right now in the US - it is happening in Europe

     

    as investors...you need to look past the short term stuff to think about the longer term - yes the summer has been rough with Europe and the looming election and fiscal cliff are factors and China is slowing but looking past that - the world will continue growing - it must if 4 billion people are going to get close to the lives they aspire to - Europe will stabilize, the US will solve its crisis and the S&P will head towards 2000 by 2017.

     

    if you don't believe that then you saying - "this time its different" - and you need to explain why since if you look at a chart of the S&P over the past +100 years - the trend is one way despite numerous wars (limited and unlimited), natural disasters, recessions, revolutions and depressions - all of which were in their day - "unprecedented".

     

    P
    28 Sep 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    "corporate profits are the driver of stock prices and they are not falling off a cliff"

     

    I think you will look back in retrospect and realize you spoke the latter half of that sentence too soon.
    28 Sep 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Of course the S&P will be higher in 100+ years. That is completely irrelevant to the conversation here. Nobody is talking about what the S&P will be in 100+ years. There have, however, been extended periods of time in which the Dow Jones has remained flat or even negative. I'm not arguing that equities are going to decline significantly and stay at a depressed level, but there may be better investment choices at this point in time. Recessions can certainly occur when the corporate sector is flush with money. Many would argue we're in a recession. If we're not currently in a recession, we're close to one. There is a laundry list of reasons for our current economic stalemate. You're talking about a credit crunch/crisis, which is what occurred in late 2008 and intensified the recession but was not the initial cause. By the way, it's not just one number showing negative trends!
    28 Sep 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
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