Seeking Alpha

More on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in...

More on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in 2013 (0.7%) and 2014 (1.2%). For stocks, the IBEX is assumed down 1.3% in 2012 (currently down about 15% YTD), and then essentially flat over the next two years. The adverse scenario has stocks down 5% in 2013, flat in 2014 - that's the adverse scenario.
Comments (6)
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    Are these the same kind of stress tests that had Dexia as the strongest bank in Europe a couple of months before it was nationalized?
    28 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Russ Winter
    , contributor
    Comments (648) | Send Message
     
    Question now is, what is the half life of a lie in terms of a market rally? Time to fade lies?
    28 Sep 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ted Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (591) | Send Message
     
    No Galt...these are the same kind of stress tests which were administered in the US, and proclaimed every bank in America fit to grow and flourish.

     

    Except that it cost us another couple trillion dollars to generate no growth, create a banking industry that isn't flourishing, jobs that aren't growing, and no end in site despite the promise of burning through as many trillions of dollars as it takes to forever bankrupt the state.

     

    But they all passed the test.
    28 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • SteveK
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    This is a joke right ... what kind of stress test is that ... unbelieveable!!!
    28 Sep 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    where does it say how much money is being pulled out every hour on the hour...bank runs in other words....
    28 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Lares Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    Hmm...am I reading the same report (table 6)? Looks like you confused real GDP with the nominal GDP. It's the real GDP that gets reported.

     

    Both adverse and base scenarios assume real GDP will fall 2013, not what you reported. The adverse scenario assumes IBEX will fall 51% in 2012, and 5% next year, which is..well..quite adverse. Where did you get your numbers?
    28 Sep 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|