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More on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in...

More on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in 2013 (0.7%) and 2014 (1.2%). For stocks, the IBEX is assumed down 1.3% in 2012 (currently down about 15% YTD), and then essentially flat over the next two years. The adverse scenario has stocks down 5% in 2013, flat in 2014 - that's the adverse scenario.
Comments (6)
  • Are these the same kind of stress tests that had Dexia as the strongest bank in Europe a couple of months before it was nationalized?
    28 Sep 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Question now is, what is the half life of a lie in terms of a market rally? Time to fade lies?
    28 Sep 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • No Galt...these are the same kind of stress tests which were administered in the US, and proclaimed every bank in America fit to grow and flourish.

     

    Except that it cost us another couple trillion dollars to generate no growth, create a banking industry that isn't flourishing, jobs that aren't growing, and no end in site despite the promise of burning through as many trillions of dollars as it takes to forever bankrupt the state.

     

    But they all passed the test.
    28 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • This is a joke right ... what kind of stress test is that ... unbelieveable!!!
    28 Sep 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • where does it say how much money is being pulled out every hour on the hour...bank runs in other words....
    28 Sep 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hmm...am I reading the same report (table 6)? Looks like you confused real GDP with the nominal GDP. It's the real GDP that gets reported.

     

    Both adverse and base scenarios assume real GDP will fall 2013, not what you reported. The adverse scenario assumes IBEX will fall 51% in 2012, and 5% next year, which is..well..quite adverse. Where did you get your numbers?
    28 Sep 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
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