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Speculators are net long $51B in major equity index futures contracts, according to the latest...

Speculators are net long $51B in major equity index futures contracts, according to the latest CFTC data. By comparison - ahead of a major rally - they were net short $58B worth one year ago. (h/t Jason Goepfert)
Comments (13)
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    So he's saying when people are short the market rally's and when people are long it falls. That sounds about right as we enter October, the ugliest month for stocks of the year.
    28 Sep 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Ted Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (574) | Send Message
     
    Is that smoke i see coming from the helicopter?

     

    Sputter....sputter......

     

    There is only so long that you can force high octane fuel into an old (economic) motor. Eventually the old beast just can't take any more.

     

    And she expires.

     

    Draw your own conclusions.
    28 Sep 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • 1234gel
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
     
    The summary is a little confusing, however I interpret the statistical data in the following conclusion:

     

    Significant market swings sometime take place after the bias between the longs and the shorts is well established in one direction, and the market swings conversely in an opposite direction sometimes in a major rally.I question the relevance of QE in this situation, as well as other outside influences, such as new economic data, or election result anticipations that could have a greater significance. One set of statistics could be negated by other influences.
    28 Sep 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • tony curti
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Beware Mondays during October.................. kind of like the markets "Friday the 13th" (although the more horrific ones were usually later in the month).

     

    The stochastics on weekly and monthly charts of the DJIA and SPX have been overbought for roughly 3-4 months and appear to be rolling over. RSI and ROC while still positive, appear to be diminishing, and the markets seem to be getting more "Bad" news from Europe than before the QE's announced this summer by Draghi and Bernancke, and seem to be moderately reacting to it into convergently. Coincident with this, the Euro is re-tracing some of the rebound it made since mid-July, amidst riots in Spain and Greece (again), rebounding Spanish sovereign rates, and even some questioning of France's financial health. The media is constantly reinforcing the notion of Obama's "assured" re-election success, and the latest Chicago PMI was under 50. LAstly, AAPL did not act well this week, falling below it's 20-day MA for the first time in about 2 months, while the upper Bollinger band has flattened.

     

    In short, t'is the "traditional" season for pullbacks, there is no shortage of "reasons" for one to occur, and markets seems to be stimulated to the down side by bad news more than they were in the immediate past. Regarding the question of "How far how fast" (if at all) well, my crystal ball went on strike many, many years ago, and I refuse to cave in to demands for reinstatement without a performance clause in the contract.

     

    Disclosure: I'm long AAPL puts and FB calls at the moment, with intentions to close out (win or lose) next week.
    28 Sep 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Geoffrey Harris
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    Well the s&p 500 held support in the 1430's. This is weak support though. The support at 1400 is stronger. Another bit of bad news should take it back to that level which has served as strong support for the last couple of months. That should happen within 5 weeks or so especially if there are substantial earnings misses reported from 10 10 - 25th.
    28 Sep 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • begs
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Somebody give me one good reason why this market should move-pls.
    28 Sep 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • 1234gel
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
     
    Just one, begs .... many of the hedge funds have been sitting on the sidelines for a long time. They need to jump in to the market soon, in order to have some profits accumulate by year end. Let me tell you, they are concerned. Election speculation might be the most prominent reason to place some bets, as the outcome will be profound in either direction.
    28 Sep 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Geoffrey Harris
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    Think the hedge funds play the markets both ways so some of their positions must have paid off by now already.
    29 Sep 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • sgxjdi
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Many predicted that Sept was going to be a bad month, it didn't scare the bulls away..... Most equity markets made gains and I can't
    see why Oct is gonna be different ! Plenty of arguments that present prices do not reflect real economic condition, but shouldn't it be the other way around ? After all this is what the central banks hope to achieve through their actions. The market had cruised ahead strongly despite very difficult times in Europe, China and US. Lets give them the medal they deserve.
    30 Sep 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Geoffrey Harris
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    ChartAdvisor indicated that the S&P 500 and DOW 30 were in ascending triangle patterns from this spring and then broke higher. I thought they formed converging triangles in early September. Both patterns were in evidence.
    1 Oct 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • tony curti
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Today's action was a little disconcerting, and AAPL was downright poor. Got under minor support around 660 and couldn't even reclaim in the aftermarket. Perhaps managers are booking significant gains before the end of 2012. IT's a little difficult to imagine a strong continuing rally without AAPL in the mix.

     

    "Euphoria" (read: relief) over Spain/Eurodebt didn't last too long; they were marching in Paris yesterday because the elected socialist (Hollande) is negotiating an austerity plan with the right. As I recall, he was elected on the "promise" of, in essence, printing money. Trouble in French sovereign debt can't help matters.

     

    Be interesting to see if we match trading patterns tomorrow (strong open/weak close).
    1 Oct 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Geoffrey Harris
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    Aapl fell below its 200-day moving average leaving to mindless short-term selling bringing it down to 310 last June. it has more than doubled since then. Folks who see weakness in it when it is above 600 now are full of crap.
    3 Oct 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • tony curti
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    The question is whether or not a company that has been able to earn roughly $1 billion/week (or more) for several quarters can continue to grow that figure at the rate they have in the past. LONG TERM, I bet that they do.

     

    However, the short term weakness in AAPL was noted as something that might effect the general market tone, and was NOT meant to imply that AAPL is about to crumble, which it will not. It would make some sense to me that portfolio managers might want to book some of the profits they have earned holding AAPL stock, and thus ensure a profitable year. IF that's the case, that selling will not last forever, and may not even last very long. For sure, there will be buyers in the wings.

     

    BTW- the puts I had on AAPL were closed out when the stock price was around $655/share.
    4 Oct 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
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