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Aug. Retail Sales: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Ex-auto +0.6% vs. +0.4% expected,...

Aug. Retail Sales: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Ex-auto +0.6% vs. +0.4% expected, +0.2% prior.
Comments (15)
  • franztch
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    very good
    14 Sep 2010, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Ganeshdindodi
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    can we expect firework to continue today?
    14 Sep 2010, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • inthemoney
    , contributor
    Comments (981) | Send Message
     
    Buy the rumor sell the news
    14 Sep 2010, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Retail sales ex Gas to S&P 500 Ratio is 2.92....15 year average of this ratio is 2.53.....
    14 Sep 2010, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    Does that mean the all-knowing S&P is predicting lower sales ahead?
    14 Sep 2010, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Well if it reverts to the mean...it means the S&P 500 is undervalued compared to
    Retail Sales ex Gas....
    14 Sep 2010, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    IF the market predicts the future THEN sales MUST go down to meet the market.
    14 Sep 2010, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Well let's see Retail Sales ex gas has had a negative month 66 times
    out of the last 222 months....and if you take out recessions the odds
    are miniscule....
    14 Sep 2010, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    I have no opinion on retail sales or the market. Your logic, however is faulty.

     

    If the market has all available information and discounts, at least, the future six months, then sales, which is not attributed any "intelligence" should fall.
    14 Sep 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    funny use of language. I know you do not mean it literally but your image of the market as a swami sitting serenely on mat in a cave atop a hill is a little far fetched

     

    maybe look at the market as a weather vane - that is a more apt metaphor - it points the way and it is the relative movement that you need to watch.

     

    as for ratios and so forth - based on where we are on expected returns across a variety of asset classes - stocks are not overvalued and on some measures look cheap - said another way the risk premium is acceptable and tending towards attractive - but I would not chase - there will be bumps along the way so see it come back a little buy and see it grow over the next 18 months until Fed starts to tighten significantly and unemployment falls back to less than 5 to 6%.

     

    E
    15 Sep 2010, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    oh. I see. I should have read further. you do see the market as an all knowing swami - go ahead ask it a question - where is economic growth going - next 12 months - let us all know what answer you receive.

     

    the market is just the sum of opinions on any given day. nothing magical. read the wisdom of crowds - intersting book. don't take it all as gospel but there are some good insights in there.
    15 Sep 2010, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    E-doc,

     

    I agree with you. I do not think the market knows anything. Since most participants don't even play with their own money, I think fear is understated.

     

    My point, however, is that bbro uses "sales" as a predictor. I don't think even those who believe in predictors think "sales" would surprise "market." Most think the latter knows better.

     

    Regards.
    15 Sep 2010, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    Haters are going to hate that things are getting better.
    14 Sep 2010, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool then to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

     

    Abraham Lincoln

     

    I would have expected the market to move up on this news regardless of your bearish/bullish profile but apparently not - so buy on rumor sell on fact seems to be good advice in this trading market.
    14 Sep 2010, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    I gave myself a thumbs down on that one, but I am always the annoying optimist.
    14 Sep 2010, 10:22 AM Reply Like
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