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Doug Kass doesn't pull any punches in making a bear case for Apple (AAPL +0.9%). The iPhone 5...

Doug Kass doesn't pull any punches in making a bear case for Apple (AAPL +0.9%). The iPhone 5 "feels like a toy," Kass writes, while claiming Steve Jobs would have never "let it go out the door like that." With Jobs gone, Apple risks "losing that magical Walt Disney feeling," he adds. Kass, who shorted Apple in winter (that hasn't worked out well), also believes Apple is "losing mojo and mindshare" to Samsung, and predicts his fears might start to be realized after the December quarter.
Comments (65)
  • Dougie's

     

    short DJIA for 1000 points

     

    short AAPL for 300 points

     

    thx for the insight
    3 Oct 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Can you say 'retirement'? DK has no business in business, let alone smartphone forecasting. The emperor has no clothes and little pulse.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • I've about had it with Doug Kass. I got news for ya...all cell phones are basically toys with what's being offered these days. Nobody really needs all the extra's on what cell phones offer these days. Not that I'm opposed to them but believe or not...I'm in the minority who uses his cell phones to only make calls! Ok I admit I text but only because it's part our family package because of my daughters wanting to text! Heck my phone doesn't even have a keyboard option as I use my cell numbers to text with and that is verrrry slow process. lol.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • I axed an old dude why he bought iPhones for teenage daughters, he said safety.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Clearly Mr. Kass is still short Apple. The fact that he gets a forum to have his opinion published helps his position, in my opinion.

     

    What is his determination of Apple "losing mojo?" How does one measure mojo?

     

    Since he said Apple could lose that Disney feeling, I am to assume that he is long DIS, right?
    3 Oct 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • "Kass, who shorted Apple last winter (that hasn't worked out well)..."

     

    LOL, another bozo. This is who we quote on this site now?
    3 Oct 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Cass is perennial doomsayer.
    He made a horrible call on AAPL and he's doubling down.
    Back off Doug, you have no credibility any more.
    If you ever did.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • people that miss an uptrend, are always looking to short it. the envy factor, and this guy will never make you money.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Kass,
    Hows that short position in Apple doing? Nice job releasing an article trying to manipulate the stock price in order to make up some of your major losses.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • The streets are littered with bodies of AAPL shorts!
    3 Oct 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Valuation just looks cheap for potential 50% grower.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Even if some of the things Kass said are more or less true, it doesn't matter as Apple has the world's best brand cachet and will maintain that as long as it makes its iGadgets.

     

    Wonder what he will say when the iPhone and iPad are combo'd in a year or two, opening a whole new high profit world with a mid-sized device that does everything both do now, but better and with more whiz bang goodies Apple is known for.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • If Kass is still short AAPL as of last December, then the phrase should be changed from "predicts his fears might start to be realized after the December quarter," to: "HOPES his short position might someday stop growing to a larger loss."
    3 Oct 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • It is not just the phone that makes APPL a growth stock which is still growing. Once you buy the phone you buy the rest like a Mac or an Ipad etc.I would not go back to any other device or operating system. My life became so much more productive when I switched a year ago. Lots of people are still making the switch.
    3 Oct 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • vandagreenwood, I made the switch starting in 2008. First an iMac, then an iPhone, and then an iPad. I'll never go back either. I'm waiting for the iMac to be refreshed to get a new one and I'm getting an iPhone 5 shortly.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • I followed the exact course you took with Apple, also waiting to buy an iMac when it refreshes. Got my iPhone5 last week and love it. Use to buy Dell and cheap phones - not anymore.
    3 Oct 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, it all starts with the iPod, the gateway drug, then before you know it your on the iPad all the time, then you graduate to the hard stuff, the Mac daddy iPhone and to help you come down, your gonna need Apple TV.
    3 Oct 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Kass called the bottom of the market March 2009. He now thinks were getting over bought on s and p
    3 Oct 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • I thought Mark Haines called it and then died (RIP)
    3 Oct 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Why is some "feeling" he had better than real analysis on which to risk money? Ever heard of something called FACTS, Doug? Yeah, you know, those things that are true.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • It's hard to diagnose DK's motives. What a joke. November 5th I'll have two i5's ordered @ Verizon.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • A broken clock is correct twice a day. And who is this Kass fellow anyway?
    3 Oct 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Subjective opinions from Kass and others are nothing more than anecdotal bs. Empirical data comes out every 90 days, and that's what counts.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Haters hate
    3 Oct 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • good for a laugh
    3 Oct 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Why would someone prefer a heavier portable device?
    3 Oct 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • "stop_loss_is_your_fri...

     

    I don't think so. Stop loss is an open invitation for the
    market maker to pick your pocket. Caution !!
    3 Oct 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Kass is a fool. The iPhone 5, while incredibly light, does not feel like a toy. It beats Samsung's baby in drop tests and in my own experience, is pretty darn sturdy.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • My new MacBook Air arrived. It's everything they say, and it weighs nothing, and is as small as a file in my cabinet. Great for travel; and in sync with my iPhone and Mac desktop. What a world !

     

    I admire Cook for calling the shots as they are. Instead of making puny bellyaches he acted like a straight shooter re the maps. They will improve and then be the best, like everything else he does. And, next time he tells us a product is "great" the whole world will believe him. That's the leader we "investors" want !
    3 Oct 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Well, like it or not, these devices are the way in which the world communicates (sic).

     

    I was an original cell phone user (anyone remember the Panasonic phones, with the shoulder bag and hand set with the cord?). Then i was a Blackberry user (yes, there were more than a few phones in the middle)...and i fought the i-phone as 'how much better can it be'.

     

    Well, you can't even compare the i-phone and the blackberry. They are simply worlds/generations apart.

     

    Now, as far as the stock...it is priced with one foot in, and one foot out. Tremendous success with some truly magical products; tremendous angst that there will not be a 'next' phenomenal device. It could be twice the current price if the string of great products continues, or it could be half the current price if the next device fails to deliver that magical joy.

     

    Anyone who is short the stock is playing the probabilities that the next product is an economic flop. That hasn't held true for the last few devices, and hence Doug K is getting pummeled. IF he sticks with the short, chances are that we are closer to a flop, and he will get even, or perhaps even make a small amount of money--depending on what vehicle he has used to establish the short.

     

    Without that product failure, well, good luck on making money being short AAPL.
    3 Oct 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Every time I walk into a store and play with a display Samsung, it feels like a plastic toy. And some of the display phones are already falling apart. The iPhone 5 feels like a work of art.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • These Apple shorts are such BS artists, they're worse than rightwing Republicans asking for Obama's birth certificate. They simply make stuff up, "what ifs?" Yeah, as if Samsung is better than Apple. And don't forget theyw ere found guilty in the copyright infringement lawsuit. Unanimous jury, head juror claimed case was very clear and Samsung was clearly guilty. This is actually a very bullish sign that there are still shorts out there to be scalped. The argument at 700 was that Apple was too good a deal. That something must be wrong. Anything. If not, just exaggerate like hell or make something up.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Doug, it seems like you are trying to recapture past glory with Hail Mary calls that are more emotional than rigorous. You are going down the path of Prechter and that famous one-shot wonder negative prognosticator from the 1970s whose name I can't recall who ended up in disgrace.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • There is almost no one on earth who beklieves Samsung is better than Apple. Apple sold 23 million units in the first two weeks. They are headed toward 100 milion units and with twice the profit margins as Samsung per unit. Plus Apple owns a piece of Samsung when the copyright trial is all said and done. Samsung's delaying, frivolous counter-suits and denials will just make the final payment more expensive for them.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Bjnflicks.... Agree with you on Apple over Samsung, but 23 million devices in 2 weeks? Is this recent news on iPhone sales? Seems awfully high.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • When we got two pices of bad news last week (map aps and China riot) plus some BS rumors and exaggerated fear stories (probably put out by shorts) Najarian on CNBC stated that he is super bullish about Apple but it may fall to 652 where there is strong support. Sure enough, he almost hit it on the nose. It bounced off 651 (so quickly my buy order at 651 didn't execute) and is now 15 points higher. Meanwhile, lots of good Apple news including the HUGE mini iPad release coming up shortly, all combining to make this the most humungous coming quarter for any corporate in history by far. But there are still shorts there making up negative stories. I expect them to feel the squeeze very painfully if they haven't covered already. I doubt very much we will see 651 again. 751 in fact is coming up soon me-thinks.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Najarian also said on 9/10 when aapl was at 683.29 that it would hit 700 by the next day. The next day on 9/11 aapl hit a high of 670.10 and low of 656.50. These guys are traders, as am I, and do not know anymore than anyone else. We trade on technicals which can be very wrong. If you listened to Najarian you would have been down nearly 30 points the next day and most likely would have liquidated your position with a very painful loss. You would not have very positive things to say about the rocket scientist Najarian. He was in aapl at much, much lower levels and trying to talk up his position to maximize his profit. What a great country where these guys have such a forum to spew their nonsense with such confidence when they know nothing. Sadly, its the uneducated investor or would be trader who gets wiped out while guys like Najarian and the deceitful Steve Grasso pump and dump and then go home to their 7 million dollar homes thanking God for stupid people.
    4 Oct 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • If you want to go broke quickly

     

    -- Follow the advice of some old dude who has no idea what to make of new technology and can't understand what was wrong with "them old big dial up phones that were easy to use and you could even call a number to find out what time it was"

     

    - And to go broke even faster follow the old dudes advice on the leading tech stock when he tries to talk it down bcus he is short it in his own book. How pathetically lame and transparent, I hope it goes up another $20 on him by Friday.

     

    Stick to your old dude Gold and currency calls Dougie
    Silicon valley is way outside your wheel house
    3 Oct 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • DK is absolutely correct. It feels like a toy - it looks like a toy - in fact it is a toy! That's exactly the point. ..
    The author, as well as ever one on earth has had a toy which has given joy and pleasure! Apple has become the world's greatest producer of a toy that is giviing an entire generation all over the world joy and pleasure.
    Is it a necessity - NO. Is there any one that you know in the entire world that has not at on time enjoyed a toy?
    Hats off to the greatest and most profitable toy maker in the world!!
    3 Oct 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Kass and other shoirts are starting to get badly squeezed today. AAPL up 9 and may shoot higher as the shorts scramble at the end of the session. We could very well see over $700 again in a week or so when the mini iPad hoopla begins in earnest. And isn't is lovely for Apple to have more demand than supply. Best possible "problem" a company can have.
    3 Oct 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stopped reading him but love the reactions!
    3 Oct 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Here are some of the more outrageous, laugh-out-loud excerpts from Doug Kass' deeply flawed analysis:

     

    "Last week I went into one of Apple's New York City stores. It was not as nearly busy as my last visit in August."

     

    "I played with the iPhone 5 for about a minute and got quickly bored."

     

    "Go play with the iPhone 5 yourself. It feels terrible."

     

    "Apple has started to experience Microsoft-like virus problems."
    3 Oct 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ridiculous. The iPhone 5 is superbly made with very high end aluminum and glass. It feels like a bank vault in ones hand. It has the power of a hand held computer, is incredibly thin and very very light. There is not another phone on the market that is built with such beautiful materials and with such a high level of fit and finish. It is a remarkable device and in my opinion a little work of art. It caters to people who are looking for a higher qualit device. Aside from its beauty, it also operates without any nonsense and issues- it performs flawlessly. Pardon my crudeness, but its like a beautiful girl who also knows how to f_ _ ck. I have also used apple's maps without any issues. Google maps have got me lost of numerous occassions, but we only hear praise for the company. Bing maps are also very good, but that gets bad mouthed as well. The virus comment is also quite comical. Of cousre Windows get more viruses than the Mac. Since msft owns 90% of the computer industry, hackers write viruses against it. As Macs and ipads become more and more popular, hackers will attack those as well. I have amny computers running windows 7 and have never had a virus or a crash for that matter, it is an extraordinarily stable and powerful OS. Since apple and microsoft are the two most dominant and powerful tech giants, they will continually be fomented and their stock prices manipulated by the hedge funds.Until apple fails to produce beautiful products that work that people line up for ignore the idiotic noise. Kass is also short Msft. The Microsoft Surface Pro is the only tablet that could rival the ipad. It is made from high end materials, has beauty, ports, power, cna run office, can accept a usb and can download 5 gb in 5 seconds. While I love my ipad, I am looking foward to buying a Surface as are many, many people I have spoken to. Only time will tell, but msft with windows 8 mobile and phones like the lumia 920 have the potential to really disrupt the horrible android os. If i was Kass i'd be prepared to cover my msft short position as well as the apple short into the holidays.
    4 Oct 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Huh...!
    3 Oct 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • I like Doug...but he's gotta lay off the crack pipe ;-)
    3 Oct 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Well you know what happened to Disney after Walt died!!!!
    3 Oct 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Apple is past its peak. Like Sony it will have brand recognition for the future, but the age of innovation at Apple has ended for the time being with the (inevitable) development of the first popular mobile computing platform.

     

    Concurrently the passing of Steve Jobs transforms something special into something just good. There's none to take the reigns, just a series of custodians to come for the foreseeable future.

     

    As Apple's tissue-paper legal defenses against legitimate competition are doused with warm water, it will become obvious to the market how Apple's most likely direction is to consistently LOSE market share for the next 10-20 years. Keep in mind how quickly the headwinds of technology change. Look at the rise and fall of Facebook. (If you're reading this and hopeful about Facebook, there's no convincing you about anything).

     

    Apple's mistake is succumbing to a silicon valley malaise which contains a mixture of ego, greed, and tech-centric mentality. You can't speak to the general public like this and not develop a loathe reaction over time. You have to stop alienating and squeezing your customers. You have to stop trying to control the marketplace.

     

    Free enterprise got Apple where it is from its humble beginnings, its complete hypocrisy for them to lock their devices and push out software updates that render older devices useless. On the computing side, they have pushed out 10 years of pointless updates to their Mac operating system which have introduced very few needed features and forced the consumer into upgrades simply to avoid incompatibility.

     

    Apple is now synonymous with greed. They can't destroy their product line and they never will, but they've completely sold out on principles and have lost their human touch.
    3 Oct 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Greed? Thanks for for presenting OWS' perspective on the company's future.
    3 Oct 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Like the boy who cried wolf! Wasn't DK the look-out at Pearl harbor?
    3 Oct 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • DK is old man and too much whine.
    3 Oct 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Hes obviously another writer who has stock in google trying to kill the apple stock. Its starting to get obvious now these writers have stock in google. Its pretty ridiculous there even allowed to make comments. There just mad google can't compete with apple and apple is going ot be first trillion dollar company. There is stopping apple there products just get better and better.
    3 Oct 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Actually, the person this article is about has been short Apple for a while. 80% losses rock. My goldfish could make better recommendations and give more sound financial advice than this bozo. haha.
    3 Oct 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • If this comment section is any indicator Kass is about to be right. When everyone agrees it sure feels good, but usually it's the time to look out!

     

    A company dreamed up and built by a visionary is not a good place to invest when that visionary is gone. The i5 is case in point, most non biased reviews say 'its nothing special', and Jobs had a hand in it!

     

    So Buyer Beware!
    3 Oct 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Kass just wants his money back.
    3 Oct 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • The emotiional reactions here both speak to the sheer number of folks with their money tied up in this company, and how human behavior never really changes. Fascinating. Apple is a great company and has been a great investment for many, but it is a mistake to be emotional about any investment. The stock has shown cracks, and I think for valid reasons. These are not issues "made up by short sellers".

     

    Few are likely short the stock at all, and short sellers did not drop the stock 50 points. Labour costs in China and mistakes in execution of a new product are warning signs. Perhaps just a glitch, time will tell. History indicates the kind of dominance aapl
    enjoys rarely lasts forever, and the.
    visionary is not there any longer. Although more likely than not a correction, the next major move in aapl is likely to be lower, 600 or below.
    3 Oct 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Never owned, bought or shorted Apple but it would be refreshing if Kass came out and said "I'm Wrong." Not going to happen but it might give him some credibility on the stock but instead he digs further into the hole. You make some great points but the bottomline is this company is beyond a cash cow right now.
    4 Oct 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • What a moron!! Like a lemming following a lemming all the worthless of the worthless analysts are piling on Apple, one of the best companies in the world! How about once in a while they do an article on Apple's FOREIGN competition! How about some insight and bad mouthing of KOREA's Samsung, the cheaters, thieves and copy cats who just lost a HUGE lawsuit by Apple! God knows we need to start supporting companies like Apple and get our help bring those factory jobs back here for all the liberal arts graduates who can't find a job!
    3 Oct 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Dougy is never right about anything. I am not sure how he makes his money.
    3 Oct 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • "predicts his fears might start to be realized after the December quarter. "

     

    This is probably true. However, since he's short AAPL, his "fears" are that AAPL will continue to rise. How about mid 700's by end of October. and 800 by end of december quarter.
    4 Oct 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • When will people like "Doug" realize that technology continues to change. You're not buying coffee, although you can do that with your iPhone! I'd like to see Doug's face in January!!!
    4 Oct 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/VBbBDj - MUST READ, the one really true expert on AAPL is talking - "Apple $1000: Why Doug Kass will miss the next 50% move"
    4 Oct 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Look at the $$ per share AAPL has reported over the last 15 quarters it goes from $3 a share to over $13 per share just wait till after Christmas stay long and overweight AAPL they have earning power like no other company I can think of not to mention all the forward looking technology they have in pipeline
    4 Oct 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Pay attention to price. AAPL is developing a potential H&S top. Below 650 confirms. Short AAPL.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Another shellacking coming Monday due to the Foxxcon strike?

     

    Still not selling AAPL the next two Wednesday should bring relief.

     

    At any rate good to see the Chinese acting like Americans and challenging the powers that be.
    6 Oct 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Kass- One Year Ago......

     

    Wednesday, October 19, 2011, 2:13 PM Not all the pros who follow Apple (AAPL -5%) are so sanguine about its earnings miss. Doug Kass, for one, wonders why analysts failed to properly gauge the big impact the iPhone 4S would have on last quarter's sales. Blaming results on “product transitions” often means growth is maturing, so has it peaked at Apple? Plus, Kass thinks too many people are long Apple for the shares to work.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
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