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More on Nonfarm payrolls: The labor force participation rate rose to 63.6% from 63.5% - check....

More on Nonfarm payrolls: The labor force participation rate rose to 63.6% from 63.5% - check. The employment-population ratio rose to 58.7% from 58.3% - check. Those working part time for economic reasons soared 582K to 8.6M - there's your drop in the unemployment rate.
Comments (15)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Employed year over year not seasonally adjusted is up 2.831 mill. or
    1.98% y-o-y....recession trigger is 1% y-o-y

     

    Parttime for economic reasons is troubling but it does not trigger a recession signal unless it is up year over year...

     

    9/11 9.3 million 9/12 8.6 million
    5 Oct 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Also trucking transportation and temporary help services are well above their 12 month moving averages....both leading indicators
    5 Oct 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2610) | Send Message
     
    Not to stoke conspiracy theories, but the month before the presidential election, total jobs mysteriously jump 850,000, and total unemployed drops by 450,000? That was sure an opportune time for the government to notice a 1.3 million job swing in the numbers.
    5 Oct 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • mowjo
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    The only consistency in such things is it doesn't matter which party is power! The Republicans only goal is to remove Pres Obama from the White House. The Democrats only goal is to keep Pres Obama in the White House. Whether it is truthful isn't as important as does action B, C or D further either parties goal! Unfortunately it is the current state of American politics!
    5 Oct 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • robgra
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Any guess how big the post-election downward revision will be?
    5 Oct 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4119) | Send Message
     
    I mean who doesn't like working a part time job?
    5 Oct 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    here come the conspiracy theories...oh brother,,,
    5 Oct 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4119) | Send Message
     
    I guess the question is, historically have there been these types of upward/downward revisions in the past consistently?

     

    If it's normal that they revise the numbers by this much then I agree the conspiracies are just that...

     

    However if it's unusual that the revisions are this big or this often then they probably have a reason to be suspicious.

     

    I don't know, I haven't done a comparison over the last 10 years to see but it's something I might look into.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2895) | Send Message
     
    NFP has lagged ADP for several months and is still lagging.

     

    They probably depressed NFP artificially so they could garner enough support for QEx.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    You forget they are hiding Elvis too....
    5 Oct 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • atlantadoc
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Never underestimate the treachery of the Democrats. Never underestimate the ability of the Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    If you follow the Gallup survey the direction is correct...and over time
    magnitude...
    5 Oct 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Lewis
    , contributor
    Comments (355) | Send Message
     
    Is the bar for success really comparing these numbers against recession triggers? We are stuck in a terrible jobs malaise...normal recoveries should be adding 200-300k in jobs each month. There's no way to spin it, its just bad.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • touzijia
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Can someone explain how the big jump in those working part time for economic reasons affects the headline unemployment rate? The numbers seem fishy, but I can't wrap my head around it.
    5 Oct 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Remyngton
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    582,000 part-time ...

     

    must be those stay-at-home jobs that pay $5000/week for licking envelopes

     

    what a disgraceful political fraud
    5 Oct 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
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