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Jack Welch is only half right - don't trust the numbers in any jobs report, not just the latest...

Jack Welch is only half right - don't trust the numbers in any jobs report, not just the latest one. Revisions on top of revisions... the vast discrepancy between two sets of employment totals... lumping part-time workers with full-timers. But the numbers aren't rigged; if they were, the BLS isn't doing a very good job of it. In 2011: 153K jobs created per month. So far in 2012: 146K/month.
Comments (27)
  • X-12- ARIMA....this is statistics and yet the financial media wants to
    ignore the concept of standard deviation. Jack Welch is a blowhard.
    After Romney is elected he will embrace positive jobs numbers like
    a long lost brother.

     

    Read Lee Adler's comment

     

    http://bit.ly/OJtn7A
    6 Oct 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • I found that linked article very interesting, thanks.
    6 Oct 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • It's the "assumptions" that skew the numbers.
    6 Oct 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • The supposedly biased "assumptions" have benefited both parties
    over the years....but why let that get in the way of a goofy conspiracy theory....
    6 Oct 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • bozo
    Did I mention anything about conspiracy?
    Get a life man.
    6 Oct 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Bozo...please
    6 Oct 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Welch, who lived off bogus asset valuations at GE Capital to hit his EPS numbers, should really STFU on data manipulation.
    6 Oct 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • The true about Jack W.

     

    That's also why he can easily recognize when others are cheating the same way he did.
    7 Oct 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • If they used the same seasonal factor used for September 2004
    the unemployment rate would have been 7.67% not 7.8%...

     

    Seasonal factor for September 2012 .997495
    September 2004 .998897
    6 Oct 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • bbro -- you simply don't understand. Anything negative for Obama is true. Anything positive for Obama is bogus data. Jeez, how many times do I have to tell you this? ;-)
    6 Oct 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Decreased judgment is an early sign of dementia. Give the poor guy a break:)
    6 Oct 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Welch is an icon of successful business management. To those that disparage his reputation due to data manipulation may not be familiar with the performance of GE under his leadership. Perhaps there was some data manipulation of earnings results from quarter to quarter to keep the silly 'analysts' happy. However, if you are mature enough to look at the longer term multiple year performance of GE under his guidance you will recognize strategic growth in revenue, earnings per share and market share for every business unit. These results were achieved in a wide range of economic environments on a world wide basis. Manipulate data? In perspective such silly machinations are 'small ball' in a big picture success story. Remember, GE 'graduated' dozens of highly successful business managers under the tutelage of Jack Welch. GE was once known as one of the better managed companies in the world. Why would you criticize such success?
    6 Oct 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • GE was the all-time corporate master of data manipulation, massaging the asset values at GE Capital by *just enough* to beat those earnings estimates (always just by a penny or two) quarter after quarter, with a regularity that would impress Bernie Madoff.

     

    "Hey Gary, turbines and locomotives had a tough quarter, I need you to mark up some assets".
    6 Oct 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Welch belongs to the same club of morally bankrupt people that Jon Corzine, Thain and Mozillo are part of.
    6 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • CaladesiKid2, your full of business school propaganda. I know several people who were in senior management at GE after Welch. He left the helm because the manipulations were catching up with him and left it to his successors to get blamed for the damage and to slowly put things back towards reality. He was a master PR machine. Did he get a few things right, probably, but nothing like his PR. He jerked divisions, people, and assets around in ways that make no sense at all, except for the PR and financial manipulation.

     

    Oh, and he got in bed with the government big time. That part of GE still exists and they get preferential treatment in a lot of areas. Bribing politicians using political donations is not what I would call 'an icon of successful business management', when bribery is supposed to be illegal. Successful it was, iconic it was not.
    6 Oct 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, Neil459, I am full of business school 'propaganda'. I believe in facts, analytics and favorable economic outcomes. It saddens me to read the growing popularity of demeaning successful business people. Whom do you propose as role models, politicians? Under any measure of economic performance, GE was a successful business enterprise under the direction of Jack Welch. There are many other examples of successful business management. I have no particular affection to Mr. Welch.

     

    You see, as a student of history I know that politicians will not solve our economic problems. Only private business has the capability to elevate our economy, elevate our standard of living and reward those willing to work to support themselves.
    6 Oct 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Corzine should be in jail. Jack Welch did not break the law. Jon Corzine is a shining example of the corruption that emanates from the White House. Morally bankrupt? I encourage you to read up on the ethical behavior of politicians currently in office, particularly Democrats. How did Harry Reid become a millionaire with a lifetime of 'service' in government? Barbara Boxer? Charles Rangel? Your hypocrisy is comical.
    6 Oct 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • "Remember, GE 'graduated' dozens of highly successful business managers under the tutelage of Jack Welch."

     

    And a number of bad ones: Bob Nardelli comes to mind....
    6 Oct 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • "It saddens me to read the growing popularity of demeaning successful business people'

     

    I don't demean successful business people. I know many and I agree with you about politicians. Unfortunately, I know some of the back story about Welch and he does not deserve the praise he gets. But I also agree he is not in the same category as Corzine.

     

    "I believe in facts," then look them up.
    6 Oct 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • "CaladesiKid2, your full of business school propaganda"... or maybe you're his wife
    6 Oct 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • U6 remained at 14.7% (the headline number is U3). See table A-15 at:
    http://1.usa.gov/T7xXI1

     

    Note: U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force"
    6 Oct 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rigged or not that shows how much people trust the political system.
    Years of corruption in our political and financial system has caused a great damage to our citizens view of our system.
    6 Oct 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Agree. Color us skeptical.
    6 Oct 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Actually i think there was a law suit against Jack Welch for accounting manipulation. Or was that his protege at AIG? Or that guy Weill who ran Citibank off the cliff?

     

    Regardless, these guys, including those mentioned before, used massive leverage to build financial pyramids, make themselves enormously wealthy while pretending that they were doing the right thing for shareholders, and then exited the ship just as the rats were climbing over the stern as it approached the water. The 'great managers' made off with the loot, while the shareholders and the public were left with the bill.

     

    So, while some may laud the accomplishments of these individuals, guys like Jack Welch are to me just a wealthy old coot who ought to be one of the first to be water boarded when we finally start to clean up the mess these guys left behind. Anything he might say about things being 'rigged' must be weighed against the source.

     

    I guess Jack knows 'rigging' when he sees it....from personal experience.
    6 Oct 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • what you gotta love is the same labor dept has been reporting almost 400,000 new unemployment claims each week for the last 4 1/2 years and the media outlets get all excited over 100,000 +or - new jobs created that month.

     

    If I kept turning in revisions following revisions at my job I would not expect to have that job for very long much less 4 years. Jack (Welsh) you unpatriotic incompetent old cook, get with the program we are in a recovery you know. Where's Jim Cramer when you need him.
    6 Oct 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • And each time the number comes in "better than expected" the market goes up; the market also ignores that same revised number after it's revised upward the following week to show the number of unemployment claims actually increased the previous week.They have been playing that game for years now.

     

    I don't know why Jon Stewart or one the late night comics does not get hired to report the "not as bad expected" business news cycle in this country that continues to propel the markets higher; at least the comics are funny
    6 Oct 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • And if the numbers are fudged, so what?

     

    Germany has been at it for 30 years and nobody says a word except how wonderful their economy is, a complete "load".

     

    See: http://bit.ly/VAXEXF

     

    Why all the US bashing?
    7 Oct 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
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