Exact Sciences (EXAS) shares could get a lot healthier if its test aimed at early detection of...

Exact Sciences (EXAS) shares could get a lot healthier if its test aimed at early detection of colon cancer really works, Barron's writes. If the trial results, expected early next year, are favorable, the test could hit the market in 2014 and the company's annual revenue could top $500M or even $1B by the end of this decade if the test gains wide acceptance. EXAS +7.5% premarket.

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Comments (2)
  • ggoldsmith
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
    Just a couple of comments. The letter by Simpson on this topic is excellent and should be read.


    My sense as a physician who both does research on colorectal cancer screening and as a retired physician who ordered lots of these tests, the general thrust in diagnosing colorectal cancer is to try to get physicians to order the most cost-effective colorectal cancer screening test and the patients to accept the testing.


    Cologuard is not the most cost effective approach to screen the general population at risk but is likely to have better accuracy than the much cheaper fecal occult blood test (FOBT). Many physicians prefer to use the cheaper less accuract FOBT as a screening test.


    I currently own Exact and have done so for many years. I bought the stock many years ago since their stool DNA test was a major advance. But neither patients like to get this test (many of my patients didn't like the idea of collecting an entire bowel movement and sending it off via mail to a lab- high "ich" factor I guess) nor did physicians like to order this expensive test.


    I had hoped that their next test would be a much lower cost version of their stool DNA test which could have been done on a simple collection card. Evidently this will not be the case. I am not clear whether Cologuard will be collected on a simple card (lowers the "ich" factor) or whether it is a large stool sample and how the sample will get back to the lab.


    There are other competing tests coming on line and I will wait to see what the cost is of the Epigenetics test. this is an easy test to collect (blood) and Drs. will therefore like it as they can order it when they order other cancer screening tests. I am not buying more EXAS at this point and considering whether to sell.


    Remember, by 2014 healthcare with regard to cancer screening is about the accuracy of the test, cost of the test, willingness of the patient to undergo testing, and the Dr. ordering the test. I am looking to invest in a stock therefore that offers a triple winner in this regard. I don't think this is EXAS.
    8 Oct 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • jamesoh
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
    am I right...at 1 billion revenue that computes to 17 cents per share ?
    8 Oct 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
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