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More on Bernstein's downgrade of Intel (INTC): Analyst Stacey Rasgon actually thinks Intel's Q4...

More on Bernstein's downgrade of Intel (INTC): Analyst Stacey Rasgon actually thinks Intel's Q4 results will be above consensus. But he's worried the company, which badly wants to bring ultrabook prices down, will see a mix shift towards cheaper Core i3 notebook CPUs relative to costlier i5 and i7 parts, reversing a recent trend towards stronger i5 sales. Rasgon expects Intel's notebook CPU ASP to fall to $88.84 in 2013 from $94.17 in 2012.
Comments (21)
  • Wyatt Junker
    , contributor
    Comments (4503) | Send Message
     
    The analyst cliches are predictable and worn at this point re INTC.

     

    All INTC has to do is add touchscreen to its current laptop partnerships, the end.

     

    Most people would prefer a laptop as is, with the added touchscreen benefit.
    8 Oct 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • William Rilling
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    Analysts are too short term. I am long on Intel for many reasons some metioned by others. May buy some more as price goes down. This is a $40 equity minimum in the long term.
    8 Oct 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • piggysun
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    Intel is lowering their CPU cost (22 nm tech), so the profit is still there even they lower the price. And CPU is not their only business --- servers are growing in double digits. Moreover, INTC has buybacks to protect their investors. These analysts are manipulating the market so badly, and no brainers are following those guys, very sad
    8 Oct 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • kata
    , contributor
    Comments (441) | Send Message
     
    Servers or Big Data now constitutes 30% of Intc revenue. I remember when they just cranking it up and the story from the analysts was exactly the same! It has been for almost ten years since Dan Niles said Intc was finished because the PC would die. It was over 17xs then, now its 9. How about at a 4% div, they can just keep sending me a check while their margins stay at around 60%-62%. BTW, how does the ASP tumble on lower pc prices while the margins stay the same on larger sales of big data? Whatever, lol.
    8 Oct 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • stephenelkins
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    Big data is where it's at, I think. Let the other tech companies focus on the glam devices, while Intel creates the servers that quietly run in the shadows ... and rake in the $$$!
    8 Oct 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Brendan O'Boyle
    , contributor
    Comments (1033) | Send Message
     
    INTC seems very misunderstood to me. If it's tech and it's not new and shiny it must not be worth buying according to these analysts.

     

    20 dollar price target? Look at the long term success of INTC and then tell me they are worth 9x earnings. Hey I hope so, I'll be buying more if they hit 20. Already nibbled at 24, it's time to back up the truck at 20.
    8 Oct 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • JIMSK
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    i still like intc
    8 Oct 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • stephenelkins
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    The best, most levelheaded analysis here is from all the commenters and not from the so called professional analyst. I was telling my wife about these "analysts" and their downgrades and even she, who doesn't do anything with investing, said "are they idiots? Intel isn't leaving anytime soon." Gosh, she's beautiful and brilliant;) So, while the scared are selling I find it a great time to buy. Investors really need to think about the motives of these analysts. If they really cared about your money they would have cautioned around $28-29, not at $22-23.
    8 Oct 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • piggysun
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    very true, they rate it buy @ 28 and rate it sell @ 22, ridiculous, the business is not changing much, or even better
    8 Oct 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • MexCom
    , contributor
    Comments (3050) | Send Message
     
    Most of these analysts are just revising their previous ratings to stay with the pack. To be the only one wrong is bad for their employment security but if they are all wrong who else would they hire to replace the bad recommender?
    9 Oct 2012, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • stephenelkins
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    Haha. Spot on MexCom ... spot on!
    9 Oct 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • xeys_00
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Any opinions about going short here? Or should I buy some calls?
    8 Oct 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dgbinns
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    The markets are emotional at best. Tech is emotional to the n'th degree. Just look at REM. I would have to agree that all the comments and data must be carefully weighed.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    how many downgrades does a stock need?
    all these sheep parroting one another.

     

    You know to do the opposite of what analysts say, but you can't help being pissed off when their stupid comments hammer a stock lower.
    9 Oct 2012, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • MexCom
    , contributor
    Comments (3050) | Send Message
     
    I just downloaded my desktop specs - Intel Core 2 CPU 1.8 GHz with RAM at 2.00 GB. Would a newer one perform better? Would it be as much as 2 times better/faster? Will it operate better with Windows 8? Could I do twice the work in half the time? Would my stock purchase orders be sent out faster? Would it use less electricity? Would the expense to upgrade pay for itself in less than a year?

     

    I am waiting to replace my machine for Windows 8 to come out.

     

    If 1/4 of all desktop machines in use are in a similar efficiency deficit as mine - I venture to say if 1/2 are replaced within a year 2013 could be a record buster for PC sales.
    9 Oct 2012, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • TwistTie
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    I'm banking on it.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • PalmDesertRat
    , contributor
    Comments (2565) | Send Message
     
    bot some intc this morning at 22.12
    9 Oct 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • gapwedge
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    I will take the 4% divi and accumulate more as I am able.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • TwistTie
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    I'm running out of money averaging down.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • acesfull
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Me too. LOL
    10 Oct 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Pablo87
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    For the past 10 years or so, Intel has traded in a relatively narrow range of $17-27 so recent price movement should be viewed as par for the course. The $60B in stock buybacks during the period didn't seem to help at all though so you have to wonder if it was worth it. Yes intel is a high tech company and a great one at that but as a stock, shareholders might be better off if they thought of themselves as a utility and just upped the dividend.

     

    Business wise, its not clear to me tablet and smartphone will be that big of a negative for intel simply because more devices on the internet means a bigger cloud and more processing power needed and Intel dominates there. Whereas Intel's consumer business isn't that big revenue wise so getting cannibalized there is less impactful (though more visible).

     

    However, the recent sp decline is due to declining gross margins and reduced earnings which is caused by increased capex (2008-2010 $5B avg VS $5.6B for 1st Half of 2012 alone) and subsequent depreciation increase (2008-2010 avg $4.5B VS 2012 trend is $6B)

     

    I believe part of the reason for the massive capex increase is the integration of graphics onto the CPU core (whereas in years past they used older fabs) necessitating more fab capacity. This seems to have been driven by AMD and a PR exercise more than anything else since servers don't make use of it, corporate doesn't need it, and consumer well we know where that's at. Ironically, the bigger picture is that integrated PCs have little foot traffic whereas gaming which requires discrete GPUs (and disables Intel's onchip graphics on desktop) appears to be healthy and is along with the CPU the single most significant differentiator with tablets.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
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