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Are bells ringing? Apple (AAPL) is initiated a Neutral at Nomura. "We see little scope for...

Are bells ringing? Apple (AAPL) is initiated a Neutral at Nomura. "We see little scope for upside."
Comments (85)
  • So, AAPL has stopped growing? All of a sudden? These analysts are a joke really.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • You're a joke. Are you so blind as to not see that the world's biggest company can grow no longer? It is all risk from here on out, no more growth. To simply hang on to current levels, Apple must deliver a consumer tech revolution every 2-3 years. It's more than just unlikely. I would bet against it.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Someday, just like a broken clock, you'll be right.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • AAPL is dying coz OPTIONS buyers who bought CALLS must be killed before 12th OCT when most of the calls options expire.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • You're right oygp, maybe a little too harsh on TruffelPig (I like that handle), but right in your basic premise. Analysts just can't bite the bullet and admit that Apple's high growth days are over. Their ridiculous 20+% annual growth projection for the next 5 years would result in their doubling their market share from 21% of the current worldwide market to 40% of the larger projected 2017 market. Maybe a decent 2013 with 15-20% growth over 2012, but not much afterwards. And with margins being pressured they will likely earn less than they are now earning in just a few years from now.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL must be one of the most manipulated stocks in history. Right now they(Money Managers) are selling shares to take profits and to make "weaker hands" give in - much like a poker game. They will then bid the stock back up around Ipad news and fourth quarter earnings. Thus taking the profit from the "weaker hands" as well as making more. By the way monthly options expiration is Friday the 19th and weeklies are each Friday. AAPLs stay cool.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • After daily trading for about 3 years, I would have to agree with the above statement.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • @oygp: Lack of fantasy on your side. They can with new products. Globally still room for IPhones etc. IPADmini coming. AAPL TV. ICLOUD growing and integrating. Current P/E is around 14 and this alone makes AAPL cheap at current growth rate. Still a couple years outperform left before it will grow more slowly. Then they will bump up the dividend.


    AAPL can get into any market they want if they want. They are richer than rich.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Yup and they are growing in a bubble without any formidable competition (sarcasm)


    The IPhone5 still didn't beat the top-ranked GS3 at consumer reports and AAPL missed the boat on the low-end tablet market hence why they are rushing out the mini as fast as they can. Android has made significant gains in tablet marketshare overall and Windows 8 will be another competitor too
    9 Oct 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • @Chopchop0: There was no competition the past few years? Where are they now? This is such an old argument, I must yawn at it. AAPL did not make the first smart phone. Still, they eat RIMM and co-horts. They make a more stylish product, more beautiful. That is why people buy AAPL.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • There was competition it just wasn't as competative as it needed to be... Apple is still king no doubt but there are a lot of people climbing the hill and Apple's margins will be pressured.


    I doubt this is the point of terminal decline for Apple, I think they probably could hit $800/share if the iPad mini hits it off well...


    The iTV and iCloud lol give me a break those are near commodities, unless they are cheaper or provide some different angle of service people are going with the cheapest bidder. Those things will have near non-existent margins, the content they sell through them will be money but I can't see Apple beating pricing of competitors in either field. Maybe they'll surprise but I doubt it.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • iPhone 5 is sold out in Asia !! The factories are running 24/7 with no vacation time for workers until after the Christmas rush to try to keep up with demand. AAPL is still up over 50% for the year and with the new iPad launch in time for Christmas buyers to feast on what is not to like about this beaten down bargain stock??
    9 Oct 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Commoditization of the smartphone industry is just on the horizon. 2/3 of Apple's profits come from the iPhone.


    Put 2 and 2 together please.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Commoditization of the smartphone industry? Smartphones have less than 20% market penetration. where do you get that from?
    9 Oct 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • PE,


    I think you've made the bearish case quite well - how much better can it get from here? Wall street is not satisfied with continued repeats of these kind of performances, they must be bested, every year, and every quarter.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • @oygp Ding Ding Ding..... we have a winner.


    Btw, IPhone5 didn't unseat The GS3 as the best smartphone according to Consumer Reports. Between those purple photos, maps that don't work like google's, and screen flickering/aluminum case issues, you have less than a flawless product

    9 Oct 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • The iPhone5 fell behind more than just the GS3 in consumer reports didn't it? I read it was 3rd on the list of best smartphones.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • We will soon see the biggest short squeeze rally ever. Thanks to automated sales programs and breaking technicals, Apple has plummeted back to before we were even sure three would be an iPhone 5. They are basically discounted and poo-pooing the entire double mega launch of mini iPad and iPhone 5, the two biggest product launches in history, and probably the most profitable.


    Apple is in their quiet period now, right? So they cannot correct these misconceptions or competitors false rumors. But earnings this month will start to prove their true success, taking in 2-3 weeks if iPhone 5 sales, which are not 5 million as the analysts claim. They sold 5 million in the first few days. 5 million was the amount of physical phones they had. But since then they have been pre-selling them like hotcakes all over the world. So the true number sold could be 30 million or so, and they we head into Christmas season and add the mini iPad.


    I am buying as much as I can down here. On margin. I know, they say that is risky and sometimes it is, but I am sitting on huge profits, and I have total faith in Apple being worst at LEAST $800 so I am not that worried. But boy oh boy is this an oversold nasty situation. Buy buy buy anywhere below 760 and you will be richly rewwarded once we have the squeeze and reverse breakout.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Apple has the highest profit margins of anyone in the business times 100%. It is huge. And the supply-demand quotient here pushes up demand and margin prices, not diminishes it. There are millions of people around the world right now willing to pay even a premium over list price for an iPhone 5, and soon a mini iPad. People do not seem to understand that a Samsung is a clear second choice and step down. for many reasons including cachet, coolness and bling factor. You can't pick up a girl showing off your new Samsung, but you can an Apple. It's like cocaine in the 80's. And it is a beautiful piece of technology, just gorgeous. All their products are. So commoditization of Apples? We are nowhere near that time. In fact even used Apple products fetch a premium on the market.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • I agree. The emotions being expressed don't help make money, but I can make money from it! I'm buying Dec 700 calls!
    9 Oct 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • You got more stones than I do, my 700 calls are January.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Could you give me some more tips on how to pick up girls? I would appreciate it.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • The picking up girls thing is so hilarious lol what girl would go out with a guy because of his phone??


    I imagine it goes something like this in the girls head:


    "Man this dude is so lame, nothing exciting at all... wait is that an iPhone? Man, he must be rich... famous... in style how do I get his pants off? Maybe Siri can help me...."
    9 Oct 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Most girls like size.... screen size to be exact. Apple is a laggard there, probably like most of the guys who buy their phones!
    9 Oct 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • short squeeze? not until after the LONG liquidation occurs...and it hasn't at this point. gonna get real ugly soon as panties start to get soiled under 570
    9 Oct 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • I think this comment brings a whole new meaning to short squeeze...


    SA don't ban me please!!!!
    9 Oct 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Commoditization of the smartphone market, huh? Probably will be similar to the commodity of the laptop market, which has ruined Apple's margins! Not. Apple is a premium brand, dude, no such thing as commoditization
    9 Oct 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Crackberry phones and SONY VAIO laptops used to have premium pricing too at one point....
    9 Oct 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • This is going to be beautiful. I can't wait for the day where it sells off $50-$60. Look up Microsoft from 99 to 2000, or any other tech company ad nauseam.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Oh no. The world is ending.


    STILL long AAPL and buying the dip along the way.
    9 Oct 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • and your panties will be soon be soiled when you freeze as it trades < 570


    9 Oct 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • And Nomura will be buying on the dip. LOL!
    9 Oct 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • That is what I am thinking.......
    9 Oct 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Actually, VWAP is falling off..suggesting institutions are not stepping in but unloading shares.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • so are the martians!
    9 Oct 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • You are right. Nomura's statement makes zero sense so it may be them just trying to scoop up cheap shares from weak hands who are scared to death. There is no other rational explanation.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • At what point would you stop buying Apple?
    9 Oct 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stock is at $638 and Nomuras target price is $710. AND that is a neutral?
    9 Oct 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • This proves that most analysts add zero value. They upgrade a stock AFTER a massive rally and downgrade a stock AFTER a pull back. A few months ago when Apple was down to $520, everyone was downgrading it, and then when it reached $700, everyone started to upgrade it. Most analysts are after-the-fact kind of guys.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • u can be one of them.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Agreed. I bought calls when it was at 530 and bought puts when it went over 700 (because of the release cycle). Now buying calls again prior to the earnings cycle, another release, and Christmas, and will buy puts again after that.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Apple has a way of exposing incompetence among competitors and stupidity among analysts.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • That's funny. They "initiate" coverage at Neutral. Where have they been? All their investors relying on them for recommendations missed the last 52 weeks of gains. If Nomura is ranking AAPL as Neutral, based on Nomura's history, that would make me think it was Buy and maybe a Strong Buy. I'm not alone, look here:
    9 Oct 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • The biggest mutual fund Vanguard Total stock market index & Index 500 are loading AAPL.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Can you actually show that because evidence points to otherwise.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • @emburns


    AAPL's weight within the Vanguard ETF Index (VOO) is 4.86% vastly ahead of next largest holding XOM at 3.53% and GE at 1.98% (you can email me if you would like further proof - unable to post any tables/charts within the comments)


    Not saying this is a positive for aapl's continued appreciation though -as it is unlikely that Vanguard and other large funds will be able to exceed 5% holding caps on any single holding. However, looks as if JHOO1 was correct.
    9 Oct 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • The ETF that you're talking about is designed to track the S&P... it's not like saying Vanguard is saying AAPL is going to outperform XOM, thus we must have a higher weighted... Further if AAPL reweighted, they will have to sell shares.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • They did that last year and it did hold AAPL for about 3 months.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • They're just tracking the S&P 500..not trying to add alpha. Noob.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • S&P did last year. Whatever is tracking S&P had to sell AAPL. Thank you for the compliment btw. I forego to give the compliment back as I do have some sort of manners sometimes.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • I clearly was not stating 'it's weight' has anything to do with any kind of performance, but;


    1- aapl is hand's down the largest percentage holding in most growth, index, and value funds - no debate. And this is easily verifiable.
    2- the largest holdings any any fund, foundation, pension , endowment and everything else might also be 'interupted' (through very dilligent fundamental and valuation analysis being done by hundreds of very sucessful buyside analysts and pm's across thousands of companies) as having the greatest chance of outperforming its other holdings.


    So best of luck to you betting on aapl's downside. Oh, and VWAP doesn't tell the actual story. Last month institutional holdings show the following:


    NEW Positions = 6.6 million shares
    CLOSED Positions = 4.6 million shares
    INCREASED Positions = 372 million shares
    DECREASED Positions = 297 million shares


    Granted these positions are not as timely/current as VWAP but you need better evidence/facts to say institutional ownership is decreasing.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • $710 price target....these guys are better in the fixed income arena, but they are not very well staffed in the equities area.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • don't listen to analysts, though sometimes they do too much damage.


    and i hope aapl sinks to 600 so i can buy some.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Why don't you make it $550 so you can really steal it?
    9 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • why bother to wait at all if it is a stone cold lead pipe lock to go higher?


    9 Oct 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Must be that Alex Guana is working there. He is the last analyst to downgrade Apple and he hasn't been seen or heard from since.


    Long aapl and looking to add shares. Thanks Nomura. Must be you missed the news that Apple released the iPhone 5 and is ready to roll out the iPad mini. Thanks again.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Smart phone penetration in the developed world is around 50%. Smart phone industry has begun to consolidate. Even if iPhone growth in the coming years lags android, this leaves AAPL with enough room to grow in the mid-teens order. Their current PE is around 15 (trailing last 12 months) and not considering Q3 sales which surprised. Current price is another example of gray area, but falls within the brackets for a mature company, in a maturing industry -- my view.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Apple is done. Without Steve Jobs they wont be the same the stock is going to free fall people are clueless. Look on you tube even the white phones are chipped. This is comign directly from the factory. They are chipped so bad the phones dont even look new. People are sending the phones back for a refund. That 5 million in sales is wrong. I canceled mine after i heard they chip bad and im just one person. I sold off all my apple stock. Its just signs of what apple is without steve jobs. They said stock is going down to 535. I might buy around 500 but not at this price they got o many problems. Mini ipad is just a small amount of there profits there profits is iphone 5. They messed up makig it aluminum. Nobody will want a chipped up phone.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • LIAR. Apple has no such problems. They have cirtually zero returns. I recently spoke to the head of repairs at the local Verizon store. He told me they had not had a single return or broken iPhone or other Apple product all year. Meanwhile, Androids and Blackberrys have been having all kinds of problems. Apple is by far the most reliable tech product there is, and has the highest grades with consumers and consumer brand loyalty.


    Right now, they are confirming the mini iPhone will be available within a few weeks. They will have 5-10 million available. The analyst from Silicon Valley is recommending buy-buy-buy right now, cheap, cheap cheap and profitability guaranteed unless a meteor hits their headquarters or main factory. And that is not likely.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • I can think of about 10 million people who might disagree with you.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • I feel most of the "cause" that is used as an excuse to push AAPL down is supply SHORTAGE.


    THIS year= IPHONE 5 supply


    Nobody can find a true reason to say AAPL is bad as it is not bad at all. They just find stupid short-term excuses which cant prove APPLE is bad fully.


    What will happen is AAPL soars later and hit new high.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • This is a replay of the past hedge fund moves to short AAPL down to a surprising low (last time is was around $530) so they can buy back in and take a $100 ride up. Now it's up to you to find the value where you hop on board. My chart says someplace around $630.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Arguing with an Apple bull is like trying to get a PETA member to come over for a steak dinner.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Arguing with an Apple bear is like taking candy from a baby.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • AAPL at $629...and continues to fall like a rock! There are just too many negative company issues and too many analysts who are cautioning investors for me not to take a due notice. Caution is the word!
    If you are still bullish, buy on these wild dips. However, I ask myself just how far it will dip. We can always wait until it begins its' march back above $700 to buy.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • what has happened so far is very far from fact its been very controlled with buying all the way down. gonna get really ugly soon
    9 Oct 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • It'll only get ugly if iPhone 5 and iPad sales come in lower than expected signally either lost market share or overall market saturation.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • I think the GS3 will eat into Iphone sales and the IPad is already losing marketshare to Amazon and Google offerings because they missed the boat on smaller 7" tablets. Time will tell whether the new Ipad mini can bring it back


    9 Oct 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • iPhone 5 sales cannot possibly be lower than expected at this price the Street is writing off the entire launch. Meanwhile, they sold 5 million out the first weekend and have been taking something like a million orders per day since, all pre-paid. These analysts forget that Apple gets paid up-front even if the customer has to wait weeks for a phone. You can go on right now and order one, and it won't take long to get it,. But you have to pay up first. and no discounts. So, high margins and overwhelming customer demand will = very large profits and superior growth. No doubt about it. But right now, the Street is acting like no one wants an iPhone 5. It makes no sense at all. I just bought more.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks, as far as accounting goes, I'm pretty sure the products Apple sells and receives money for in advance, are an accounting liability (money Apples owes, rather than revenue) until the customer receives the product. So they can't count the profits until that product is received. I'm not a professional accountant, so anyone who knows differently would be welcome to correct me.
    9 Oct 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Great idea! Let me know when it starts going up to $700.00, k?
    9 Oct 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • probably a good idea to beat up apple. they are just starting their biggest quarter ever. Should pull in 80 Billion in sales at least. Buy it now whiles its cheap.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • already built into the stock price. complacent longs are in trouble...big time
    9 Oct 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • This sell-off ia based on bad information, false assumptions, false fears and non-existent problems. You will see in the first quarter report to encompass a few weeks of iPhone 5 sales that the growth is HUGE, the profitability HUGE, the supply chain problems way overblown andthe fact is Apple gets paid upfront regardless of whether they deliver the phone in five minutes of five weeks. They are also cutting out the middlemen more than ever, as people need to go to, pay for their order upfront (money in the bank regardless of supply chain speed), and then pick it up when they are notified. Very few people are scared away by this.Very few give up and go buy last year's lesser phone. ALmost alla re willing to wait 1-14 days for theior delivery, and again the bottomline is Apple gets paid in advance, so no problem. Also realize, anyone who expected Apple to materialize 100 million perfect phones is crazy. Of course this takes time. They are making around 5 million per week and selling each one before it is even made. What a fantastic business. Buying more today. This stock is CHEAP and the growth and profitability will be continuous, real and jaw-dropping. I have seen no so-called "negative news" that
    affects this much. Even the map aps thing is easily downloaded from elsewhere, so very few customers care.


    This reminds me of when the Street was selling Apple down to $570 few months ago. Next thing we knew it was $130 points higher. And people were aying the same thing that day. Poor Apple, no more Steve Jobs, it is all over. Yeah right.
    9 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • The I5 better deliver.... apple makes more profit on it than the IPad. In the meantime, Apple is trying to hurry out the IPad mini as they've started losing market share in the tablet segment

    9 Oct 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Soon aapl will hit bottom and rest of market will then sell off while aapl goes sideways to up until earnings the 25th.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • To Nomura Analyst: I can see that you do not see any move upward for AAPL. That makes me ask you the following: What are the dynamics of price movements- the fourth quarter result will be out 10/26 and then will the holiday season. How were your e.p.s. adjusted. What was your price before your anouncement of "neutral". Do you know how far below AAPL will go.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Best Bet is an Iron Condor.
    9 Oct 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Apple's share price last Thanksgiving $362.02. Apple's current share price (after a big profit taking/sell the news sell-off) about $628. Apparently the "little potential for upside" must've shown up in the last 2 weeks ago, which is about the period of the pullback into earnings. Every quarter it's the same routine. Keep the faux bad news/pullbacks coming. Much of this is orchestrated to create more attractive entry points. Been to an Apple Store lately? They vary from busy to packed. Buy the dips, sit back and smile!
    9 Oct 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • CBNC experts with eyes on the ground in China are now pounding the table to BUY BUY BUY saying there are no fundamental or supply chain issues of any significant kind, and that this sell-off is simply an irrational gift for buyers.


    Bottomline, yes demand is overwhelming but all orders will be filled over time and Apple always gets paid upfront so it makes little or no difference whether customers have to wait 1-14 days.
    9 Oct 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • The sell-off is actually completely rational and has been seen many times before w/ Apple. Generally a month or 3 weeks before earnings all the negative news magically appears, the price starts to drop, the weak longs get shaken out, the hedges do a little shorting to keep the momentum on the sell side, the price keeps dropping until it reaches a 10-15% decline from a peak. Magically, the news starts to get better about Apple, the price starts moving up as the professionals have reloaded at lower prices and all is well w/ the world again. This is well known to anyone who's traded Apple for any period of time. Does anyone seriously believe $70B in market cap disappears because of a mapping application mis-step and a small fraction of workers protesting? This is all orchestrated and pretty well refined by now.
    9 Oct 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • 100% correct. Couldn't have said it better. There are often "supply chain problems" of some sort. Labor conditions too.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • listening to cnbc for trading strategy is your first mistake
    9 Oct 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • The world is stark raving mad.


    The analysts should be required to be silent unless spoken to.


    Never mind, that wouldn't be any fun.
    9 Oct 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • If your an extreme Apple bear short the stock and disclose your short before commenting. At least this way I might have some respect for your judgement. Apple Longs should be loading up on some Long Call option contracts at these level to increase your bet.
    Long Common Stock, April 13 Calls and June 13 Calls
    10 Oct 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
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