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Sept. ADP Jobs Report: -39K vs. +20K expected and +10K prior (revised from -10K). "The decline...

Sept. ADP Jobs Report: -39K vs. +20K expected and +10K prior (revised from -10K). "The decline in private employment in September confirms a pause in the economic recovery already evident in other data. A deceleration of employment occurred in all the major sectors shown in [the report] and for all sizes of payroll."
Comments (25)
  • That is not the direction I wanted this to go...more coffee...long day.
    6 Oct 2010, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • At least they seem to have stopped using the word "unexpectedly" every time this happens.
    6 Oct 2010, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • I'm so glad to see optimism alive and well. Thanks for the up beat observation.

     

    What's the saying, "It's always darkest before things go pitch black?"

     

    Or better yet, "Hope that is seen is no hope at all."
    6 Oct 2010, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • They compensated with the following, though-"confirms a pause in the economic recovery already evident in other data."
    No need for a double whammy of optimism, causes people to call bs.
    6 Oct 2010, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • And it isn't a "pause that refreshes" either. :-)
    6 Oct 2010, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Haha, yeah I'm glad someone else noticed. I'm sick of that word.
    6 Oct 2010, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Apparently Reuters didn't get the memo...they're still using the "U" word...

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    6 Oct 2010, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Construction down 28...Financial down 13....
    6 Oct 2010, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Bizarrely, this could actually be good for stocks short-term. Cost cutting perversely means higher EPS, and no jobs through twisted logic means QE. Long-term is a different issue, but short-term is all this market seems to care about. I could be wrong.
    6 Oct 2010, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Hey Fed Ex 'consolidated businesses' (laying off 1700), Talbots announced closing 75-100 stores....wonder who will be next?
    6 Oct 2010, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Dan - good point, though I would add there has already been a ton of cost cutting efforts and many companies already cut to the bone in last 12 months and remainreluctant to hire. Ex financials, profit margins are in great shape. So what does this mean? revenue growth has to materialize to deliver the EPS growth. while margins may expand in Q3 and Q4, I expect the surprise element of margin expansion isnt there and in 2-3 quarters companies will need more revenue acceleration to occur. 1Q11 could be a problem. - tough top line comps, less margin upside oppty, currency? etc....
    6 Oct 2010, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • The disappointing private sector ADP payroll numbers probably cause just a blip of a dip on the major averages such as SPX and SPY. Again, we should buy on any such blip dips, due to the continued belief that the fed will provide a put to hedge against any such economic erosion to llimit the downside. Continued strength in European currencies put downward pressure on the US dollar, leading to upward pressure on the broad US equity averages. A reversal to weaker foreign currency/stronger US currency would put significant downward pressure on US stocks. Otherwise, stay long SPY et al, but watch the US dollar and foreign currencies.
    FD: Long SPY
    6 Oct 2010, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Your name is strangely appropriate for this investing environment.
    6 Oct 2010, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Yeah, you can always trust the govt to bail your out or do the "right thing".

     

    Be prepared, don't rely upon that too much. Don't listen to the pundits so much.
    6 Oct 2010, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • The productive sector is slowing..the unproductive sector...government..... is growing...this is bad...real bad....more debt...more programs...bailouts...... is here boys and girls...
    6 Oct 2010, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • You're right: It's real bad in the long-term. But in the medium-term, say the next 6 months, most equity sectors should rally to compensate for the corresponding erosion of the US dollar.
    Don't let your correct long-term view prevent you from reaping gains on the long side in the here-and-now.
    6 Oct 2010, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • If the rise in the equity markets is compensation for the decline in the Dollar (don't forget capital gains tax though), you end up flat and you take a huge amount of risk for nothing.

     

    Overseas end users are only 30% of S&P revenues (not to be confused with overseas earnings for products made overseas and imported into the US, with revenues kept offshore for tax purposes), so there is a point at which the drag from rising import costs (eg oil, which is not at $85 through strength in the US economy) starts to hurt.

     

    And don't forget the risk of surprises out of Europe as they throw a few bones to the markets in order to stop Euros getting too strong...
    6 Oct 2010, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Don't worry I'm sure the BLS will "find" jobs using the birth/death model to make up the shortfall. Nothing to see here....keep it moving
    6 Oct 2010, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • The ADP #s throw at least a bit of cold, sobering water onto yesterday's USD led and NonMftgISM led hysteria. Have a look at bit.ly/dyYisz which shows why the market's reaction to the upticks in yesterday's ISM data was so puzzling. I too, like alchemist2, am in favor of buying on dips. My premise, though, is less based on weak dollar, and more based on genuine global growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and I've focused on building the portfolio with strong US companies that benefit from that business.
    Hedge fund short covering also probably led yesterday's runup, and many have now likely been covered....opening up the prospect for another attempt by them to press markets lower ahead of NFP....Just a thought, but one worth considering.....
    6 Oct 2010, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • "Unexpectedly" is only used when things turn out for the better. When the numbers come in worse than expected, they are generally ignored; sweep under the rug so-to-speak.

     

    Not that anything matters but the Fed, POMO, and QE2 - they have become the market and I am sure everything will turn out just dandy!
    6 Oct 2010, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Madoff's investments did great too. For a while.
    6 Oct 2010, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • personally i have no idea why the Dow is nearing 11,000, and the whole oxymoron of "jobless recovery" sounds like another production of the bubble culture
    6 Oct 2010, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • The market moves in ways that don't make sense. That's why it's great to go against the general belief :)
    6 Oct 2010, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • The market is setting itself up for a massive crash. This number is horrible. There is obviously no real sustained economic recovery..in fact it hasn't even begun.

     

    40% unemployment in the next 3 years...Gold is going to $5000, before its own bubble pops!
    6 Oct 2010, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • hahaha I didn't know Eliot Pretcher took time to comment on this site lol
    7 Oct 2010, 03:37 PM Reply Like
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