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These five economic barometer stocks point to a higher market: Alcoa (AA), Pepsico (PEP), CSX...

These five economic barometer stocks point to a higher market: Alcoa (AA), Pepsico (PEP), CSX (CSX), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). They tell us that we’re shipping more goods, sales are improving, capital expenditure is rising in key areas such as consumer goods and railroads, and credit card debt write-offs are declining - in total, much more revealing than GDP numbers.
Comments (13)
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    In other news, cargo volumes at the largest West coast port in the US dropped off recently. After 3 months of increased shipping volumes there has been a sudden decrease. Now whether or not the market moves is not entirely related, though if the ships are moving less, then the economy is slowing down. I see similar patterns globally.
    15 Oct 2010, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Paul H. M.
    , contributor
    Comments (1035) | Send Message
     
    My wife works for a shipping company, and they have been super busy recently.
    15 Oct 2010, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • boxdownbytheriver
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    what do they ship, where are they located, and what form? ship, rail, truck? bulk? container? end delivery? outgoing international? Domestic receiving? origin?
    15 Oct 2010, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    I use global ship tracking software as part of my work. This is on a large scale view, in that I track individual ships, and not individual packages or cargo. It has been a very reliable indicator of economic conditions, if you know what ships for which companies carry what types of cargo.
    15 Oct 2010, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • ebworthen
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Busier than last year?

     

    She may be right, but this is "stock the shelves" time to get ready for Black Friday.

     

    That doesn't mean all the crap they put on the shelves (real or online) will sell.
    16 Oct 2010, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • dwcbuckeye
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    What's that about JPM? They are getting crushed and on the hook for likely billions in the foreclosure scheme. You might want to take a look at the chart before sending the article.
    15 Oct 2010, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • boxdownbytheriver
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    crushed?
    15 Oct 2010, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • ari5000
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    the dollar has declined at least 10% in the past month so all these stocks have to be up at least 10% just to call them flat.

     

    The only thing stock prices tell us is that buyers are willing to assume more risk.

     

    Anything they may say about the economy is left to each investors' imagination.

     

    The JPM chart looks to me, personally, like Housing Crisis Part II is about to unfold. But shut up and keep buying, right? QEII should smooth over the rough patches.
    15 Oct 2010, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • bearish73
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    JPM pointing to a higher market? No comment...
    15 Oct 2010, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • mattyw
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    "My wife works for a shipping company, and they have been super busy recently."

     

    LOL! Is she whispering when she answers the phone too?
    15 Oct 2010, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3829) | Send Message
     
    This is a totally ridiculous headline:

     

    AA
    Revenue 2008: $26.9 bn
    Revenue 2009: $18.4 bn
    2010 not close to 2008 levels.

     

    PEP
    Revenue 2008: $43.2 bn
    Revenue 2009: $43.2 bn
    (I don't follow PEP closely, but my understanding is that they've been busy acquiring bottlers, goosing revenue and income - i.e., not wholly organic growth)

     

    CSX:
    Revenue 2008: $11.2 bn
    Revenue 2009: $9.0 bn
    2010 revenue projected below 2008

     

    INTC:
    Revenue 2008: $37.5 bn
    Revenue 2009: $35.1 bn
    2010 set to beat 2008 revenues

     

    JPM:
    Revenue 2008: $73.0 bn
    Revenue 2009: $66.3 bn
    2010 revenue projected below 2008 revenue

     

    Recall that half of 2008 was a disaster, so 2010 would have to significantly beat across the board before I even begin to think about headlines like this. Also keep in mind that the consumer is not strong right now, and shows no sign of getting any stronger. It is possible that recent consumption may be based off record foreclosures freeing up disposable income. That has now been halted indefinitely.

     

    You have 3 out of 5 with 2010 revenue below 2008. One is set to beat due to acquisitions, and then you have Intel riding Asian growth. Compare these facts to:

     

    "They tell us that we’re shipping more goods, sales are improving, capital expenditure is rising in key areas such as consumer goods and railroads, and credit card debt write-offs are declining - in total, much more revealing than GDP numbers."

     

    Again, totally ridiculous headline.
    16 Oct 2010, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • User 489326
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
     
    It's the old glass is half full or half empty. Your figures tell the story. Not as good as 2008 but better than 2009. My interpretation of the figures you posted. Things aren't as good as they could be but they are better than they have been.
    17 Oct 2010, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • ebworthen
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for re-filling the bowl in the hookah!

     

    How about some crushed ice for the water, an Oxycontin, and would you hand me my rose colored glasses on the credenza please?

     

    Citi's a BUY, I can FEEL it!
    16 Oct 2010, 02:07 PM Reply Like
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