Seeking Alpha

Sep Housing Starts:+15% to 872K vs. 765K expected and 758K (revised) in Aug. Permits 894K vs....

Sep Housing Starts:+15% to 872K vs. 765K expected and 758K (revised) in Aug. Permits 894K vs. 810K expected and 801K (revised) in Aug.
Comments (25)
  • Housing Starts Year over Year up 35%
    17 Oct 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • bbro,


    How do you track the difference between starts and completions?


    Would you happen to know the approximate lead and lag time between a start and a completion?




    Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000. This is 0.4 percent (±11.2%)*
    above the revised August estimate of 680,000 and is 13.8 percent (±16.2%)* above the September 2011 rate of 600,000.
    Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 524,000; this is 8.5 percent (±15.4%)* above the revised August rate
    of 483,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 145,000.
    17 Oct 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • I track the completed new homes that are for sale(actual inventory)...which is in the new home sales number...
    17 Oct 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • bbro,


    This report?:



    Do you add "sold" and "for sale" together to get completions?


    17 Oct 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know how that ties to the housing starts report exactly...I do look
    Table 3 the completed number (38,000) which is basically a new home for sale (didn't get bought yet).I look a chart of this
    number mapped against recessions to look for when this number could be excessive.
    17 Oct 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Highest single family building permits number since July 2008....
    17 Oct 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • The fear mongers are looking pretty foolish. May be the fact that I am a former economist gives me an edge, but it has been pretty clear that the US economy is accelerating and that the conditions are in place for strong growth going forward. In particular, the household debt service has fallen dramatically.


    People need to look at the data, understand the limitations of small monthly samples, and incorporate year over year growth rates into their analysis.
    17 Oct 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like


    If you are an Economist then what would you say when the banks unload the rest of their foreclosed homes onto the market? I am sure you agree that the banks held a good chunk back so that the whole housing market did not crumble.


    Now I got this info from a Banker i trust!! Wait till you see after the Election the amount of foreclosed homes hitting the streets. I am sure some out there have a house empty with neither a for sale sign or a forclosed sign hanging.


    I know i do! This is in the states as well..Games are being played...No we fear mongers are not fooled. Gold and slver are still rising, and corporations are still forcasting weak quarters for next year.


    Not sure where you are getting your information from to decide America is out of the woods yet...Unemployment was given at 7.8% and the markets actually lost ground that day...Doesn't feel too promising to me.
    17 Oct 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • The Housing Starts to Total Nonfarm payroll employment ratio is now
    .65%...the average for the 1990's was 1.17%... the low for the 1990's was January 1991 at .73%...The 30 year mortgage rate in
    January 1991 was's 30 year mortgage is 3.7%


    The range in the 1990's was .73% to 1.4%...
    17 Oct 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • you think that is bullish?
    17 Oct 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • So where is the apocalyptic, hyperinflation world the doomers have been preaching??


    The US economy continues to accelerate, with strong gains all across the board, huge retail sales, monster housing starts......


    NO recession.
    17 Oct 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • The thing is that only depressed people are being interviewed on TV.
    All kinds of PIMCO suicidal types


    Media has created the norm where good news is no news, but every "disturbing pictures" is getting the stage with the roll-of-the-eyes of Reaganovitch and Friends
    17 Oct 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Whew, it's all over. 'merica is back! Let's all jump in the S&P500 and buy a new house.
    17 Oct 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • No, the media has been told to shut up!! Unemployment at 7.8% is so foolish that if you believe this then i have a bridge i would love to sell you.


    Just wait until next year, after the election for all things to break loose.


    Buy your metals on this dip. It won't last too long..
    17 Oct 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Be patient, only foolish people really believe any figures coming out of Washington right before the Election...Some people never learn..The inflation days are already upon us unless you don't shop for food or fill up your gas tank. Even my local Pizza place is crying how high his cost are going


    But he can't pass it onto his customers yet. But very soon if they continue will have no choice..


    17 Oct 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • "NO recession"


    You're taking this bbro thing to a creepy level. I guess imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.
    18 Oct 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like


    Great unemployment numbers today, over 48k more than expected, i AGREE we aren't heading into another Recession. We NEVER got out of the last one. Maybe close to even a Depression without the massaged numbers.


    People, open your eyes!!


    Buy your physical metals on the dip because we will now have a rabid President who will anything now to get re elected..Be careful, very careful...
    18 Oct 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous


    Here we go !!!!




    Shares dropped 10% already and they reported early as well...Down 69 bucks...The correction is starting imo..Hope you didn't own too much of it!!
    18 Oct 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • NO recession...
    18 Oct 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Whatever you believe...guess wherever you live everything is peachy..Must be nice..
    18 Oct 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • The last four years has been a disaster for home foreclosures, home investment went straight down in value, and the American people lost $Trillions of equity they had built up over many years. This has been by far the worst economy since the Carter years in the 1970s for housing and gas prices, and Americans losing their jobs, their savings, and millions losing their families as a result.
    17 Oct 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, the hangover from the previous eight years has been ugly.
    17 Oct 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • How much of this gain (and other gains, in housing stocks, mREITS, MBS, etc.) is due to artificial props?
    17 Oct 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • None.
    17 Oct 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • It doesn't matter. The props put a floor under the economy, so the gain consists of the private sector rebounding. Anything you do to help is artificial if you choose to look at it that way. Of course not helping is artificial, too, a kind of artificial stupidity, since we know better.


    Like in the movie Argo, we decided to go with the best bad plan, and it's working. :-)
    17 Oct 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)