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Initial Jobless Claims: +46K to 388K vs. 365K consensus, 342K prior (revised). Continuing claims...

Initial Jobless Claims: +46K to 388K vs. 365K consensus, 342K prior (revised). Continuing claims -29K to 3.25M.
Comments (25)
  • Was the prior week revised?
    18 Oct 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • " initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000."


    Last week was reported at 339,000.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • oh, yes it was +4k or so.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Layoff's Layoff's. No Comment:
    4 wk trends a little shakey.


    An Dem gubmint job's a keepa goin up.
    I thowt he sayd he was shrinkin gubmint. ??
    18 Oct 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Actually we have lost about 700k public sector jobs (mostlty teachers, cops) since the peak in 09'.

    18 Oct 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • But has the number of federal employees dropped? The states have to pay with real money.
    18 Oct 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Federal employees are up about 120k under Obama...vast majority are in Homeland Security and Defense. I think these are apples/oranges comparisons with states. Over the next year you should see that number decrease with the Iraq drawdown.
    The following chart only goes to 9/11', but you can see the increase in 02' (Homeland Security) and 07' (surge). All other dept's have been relatively flat. Veterans Affairs got a huge boost after 09'...I would view that as positive.
    19 Oct 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • No, wait, let me guess. The first jobs report after the election will show the unemployment rate back above 8%.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Last week when claims dropped big, we did not hear from MSM about the state that did not report, or those who did question it were called conspiracy nuts (Jack Welch). Safest bet in the world for the next 100 years, that is all we will hear about today to explain the massive increase. That it was just a correct of bad data from last week.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • anybody know which state is was that "forgot" to report last week?
    18 Oct 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Remember last weeks number excluded a state that didn't get their data in time...that was added this week. If you average the 342 and 388 figures the last two weeks, you get the 365 that was consensus.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Faith is the numbers is lost...that is what is important...
    18 Oct 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims...


    12/23/11 406,592
    3/24/12 395,167
    6/23/12 385,280
    9/23/12 377,689
    10/18/12 375,655


    Dropping at a faster pace than last quarter...
    18 Oct 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • And the labor participation rate over the same period?
    18 Oct 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • I would follow the labor participation rate if it could predict recessions but it doesn't...
    18 Oct 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • WASHINGTON (AP) -- Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months. The increase represents a rebound from the previous week's sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors.
    The Labor Department says the four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, fell slightly to 365,500, a level consistent with modest hiring.
    Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week.
    A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers "are being distorted ... by an issue of timing."
    Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they decline, it suggests hiring is improving.
    18 Oct 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • The micro part of this debate is that mistakes will be made and numbers will reflect that. The macro part is that there were so many fools out there that actually believed (and still do) that the U3 went down to 7.8).
    Someone needs to tell them there is a real U6 number that is killing us.
    18 Oct 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Gallup US employment poll....
    18 Oct 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Truth: Jobs growth is just keeping pace with population growth. It takes $1.2 Trillion in federal debt "stimulus" now to maintain this.


    The % of the U.S. population employed is staying the same.



    No recession. No recovery.
    18 Oct 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Yea....mickmars, the same as it was 30 years ago as well.


    I just looked at California results for first quarter of their fiscal year. Sales Tax Receipts down 12.3 % vs. last year. Total Receipts down 7.7% vs. last year. Corporate Income Tax Receipts down 20.2% vs. same quarter last year.


    Didn't they used to say, "As California goes the nation"?
    18 Oct 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • wmark,


    Is that the most recent data on CA?


    That does seem pretty devastating in terms of trend.
    18 Oct 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Yep - through September. Here from an earlier post on another theread:


    Thru the first 3 months of their fiscal year CA has generated a $12.7 billion deficit vs. $9.4 for the same time last year. Total receipts are off 7.7% while disbursements are up 5.9%. Sales taxes (I presume a measure of economic activity) are off 12.3% to $4.6 billion, while Personal Income Taxes are up 5.2% to $11.4 billion. Interestingly, Corporate Income Taxes are off 20% to $1.1 billion. Despite lower receipts, spending for k-12 school education is up 22.8% to $14.9 billion from $12.1 billion for the same quarter last year.

    18 Oct 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like CA is banking on a federal bailout. It's just a matter of time.
    19 Oct 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Come on jack welch.. tell us again how those chicago boys manipulated these numbers
    18 Oct 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • "According to a BLS spokesman the typical pattern in unadjusted data appears to have shifted by a week in one state causing unusual volatility in the seasonally adjusted figures."
    18 Oct 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
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