The iPad Mini, expected to be announced at an Oct. 23 event, will go on sale on Nov. 2, a...


The iPad Mini, expected to be announced at an Oct. 23 event, will go on sale on Nov. 2, a "source close to Apple's supply chain" tells TechCrunch. Early calendar Q4 estimates for Mini sales are generally in the 5M-6M range, with a modest amount of regular iPad cannibalization expected. Top Apple (AAPL) fan John Gruber, who has some sources within Apple (but doesn't cite them here), predicts the Mini will be cheaper than the latest iPod Touch, which starts at $299.

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Comments (22)
  • johnofarizonaoregon
    , contributor
    Comments (292) | Send Message
     
    So... the iPad Mini will also cannibalize the iPod Touch?
    19 Oct 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • geetb
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Nope. Only the ipad.

     

    Both these are mainly reading/browsing devices
    19 Oct 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Luke Skywooker
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    ouch, prices down, I am getting killed on AAPL calls.
    19 Oct 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1166) | Send Message
     
    Not a good week to be on the buy side of calls. The Apple sling shot is in full effect going into earnings week. We've seen this scenario many times before.
    19 Oct 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • CINDYVU
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    I expect more than 8M if supply meets demand.
    19 Oct 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • rubicon59
    , contributor
    Comments (1502) | Send Message
     
    The smart-money on wall street must be expecting zero iPad mini sales; Ignoring surprizingly strong iPhone4 sales this past quarter. Geniuses.
    19 Oct 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • sduris
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    Well, I hate to tell you I told you so, but I saw that coming. I thought the $200 - 250 was the sweet spot because of this: those that cannot afford the iPad were looking at the Kindle Fire and yes, the Nexus 7 (I don't know why, market acceptance hasn't been great, but the latest commercials show that they are trying really hard. Their $99 price point will be interesting.) and they have to get closer to that $159-$199 price point AMZN has. So you are looking at (1) brand new customers who might want to get the AMZN or GOOG product (2) current AMZN (or other competitor) customers who want to switch (3) AAPL customers who were holding out buying a tablet until now (4)AAPL customers who want to make the switch to the iPad (5) AAPL customers who want one in addition to what they already have.

     

    More than a $100 difference isn't going to be able to get AMZN customers or new customers. Also, remember the economy. No matter what you hear, consumer confidence is not on the upswing, disposable incomes are down and holiday sales will track close to 2011. If there is more than a $100 price difference to the Kindle Fire, there better be amazing features. And you have to be careful with price points and features being too close to the iPad. Yes, folks there is internal competition within companies with products (i.e. iPad sales goals vs. iPad Mini sales goals). Cannibalization is alive and well in corporate America as it should be.

     

    Pricing has so many unique twists and turns in the B2C marketplace. That's why I am a marketing person.

     

    I thought the article below was an interesting take. I didn't realize the profit margins on the iPhone were so low.

     

    http://zd.net/VcZCJj
    19 Oct 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1166) | Send Message
     
    "If you don't cannibalize your own products, someone else will." -- Steve Jobs.

     

    Apple isn't trying to capture the entire market w/ the iPad Mini, they're just scaling down the product somewhat to offer a more entry level product than the classic iPad and capturing an intermediate segment between the cheapskates and those that have zero price sensitivity.

     

    Amazon sells the Kindle Fire as a loss leader to get and keep customers in its eco-system. A $99 tablet has to be a piece of total junk.
    19 Oct 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • option man
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    You forget this issue. iCloud.
    Currently each ndividual has an iPhone. iPad was more of a shared household device. Now that iCloud is in full effect, it causes issues in sharing a device properly. Hence, each individual needs their own iPad to sync with phone.

     

    I want an iPad mini just to stick in the glove box of my car.
    My kids took over the iPad, so I want another one. I looked at competitor devices, like Samsung, mainly out of curiosity during the lawsuit. Samsung sucks. Choppy. iPad iOS is smooth and fluid. Just works far better.

     

    Besides that, I was thinking the other day- I don't know of one person that had an apple device break that wasn't their own neglect. The only reason they replace them is to get newer version. Terrific quality.
    19 Oct 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    @option man, you wrote "each individual needs their own iPad to sync with phone," not exactly.

     

    I assume you mean sync cal/address/email, etc. You can add whichever email accounts you want to iCloud and choose to add or not on your device. Likewise for Cal you can have multiple calendars setup in the cloud and choose which to display on the phone. Address is a little tricky, but you can still have mulitple groups setup and choose to select for viewing whichever you want. I say a little tricky because you have to set them up or migrate them one at a time for ease.

     

    Now with regard to music and photos you can setup photostream and create albums from the stream, music I'm not sure.
    20 Oct 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    @sduris, i think your link is in error the 23% profit margin they are quoting is for AAPL not the iPhone.

     

    The BOM for the iPhone 4S was about $188-200 and for the iPhone 5 I've seen $210-270 for the 16GB version, hence the gross profit margin for the iPhone is around 50-60%% or so.
    20 Oct 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • sduris
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    @berylrb - low-mid 60% would be more precise. So, I assume they got it wrong in the article. And I hope that margin isn't that low for AAPL in general.
    20 Oct 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • User 71722
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Bought my New iPad in June and LOVE IT...no mini for me..
    19 Oct 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • BRASIL
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    That's what I thought..I need a regular sized tablet because I don't see all that well. However, I have a little bit of trouble taking pictures with the full size pad, so having a smaller device may solve that problem.
    19 Oct 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • sduris
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    User, I hear ya.

     

    Bailin, do you understand product development, profits, etc.? AAPL is methodical in every way. They have a strategy. If they believe there is a market for the mini, they would be strategic. Noone bandaids situations as you describe above if they want to be successful. Take two aspirin, read Inc and other publications and contact me in the morning.
    19 Oct 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • interzone826
    , contributor
    Comments (185) | Send Message
     
    bailinnumberguy, when you're done reading, come back to sduris for more pedantic, condescending, sarcastic, obvious, and arrogant comments like the one above. Her tone suggests she has an endless supply . . .
    21 Oct 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • Marvel13
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Everyone is correct on this subject the price point and features will be key when it comes to the purchase decision by consumers. As a consumer I love my iPad 2 but find it difficult to hold onto for prolonged periods of time due to the size and weight. I believe many consumers will see the benefit of a smaller and lighter sized iPad and clearly the success of the competitive items has already shown the consumer desire of this size of tablet. As an Apple investor I believe the entry of the iPad mini is necessary to meet the competitive attack even if it means some level of cannibalizing. The real focus should be how the combined sales of both formats affects the margins for iPad sales as a whole.
    20 Oct 2012, 03:26 AM Reply Like
  • sduris
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    I hope I am wrong, but I thought I heard via rumor mill that AAPL might discontinue ipad2 to make room for the mini.
    20 Oct 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    Normal product cycle displacement and inventory reduction of old models
    22 Oct 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    I surprised you're surprised SA has beat AAPL's fundamentals to death with a chart for every stat almost weekly,

     

    AAPL PM 2007 15%, 6/2012 25%, 3/2012 29%, for comp,
    GOOG PM 2007 25%, 6/2012 15%
    22 Oct 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    Oops this was in response to an sduris post above
    22 Oct 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • sduris
    , contributor
    Comments (580) | Send Message
     
    Which post was for me? The one about "normal product management..."? If so, products are retired when sales, margins dictate. Too early on iPad2 in my estimations. I'm sure we'll find out more tomorrow.
    22 Oct 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
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