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Oct. nonfarm payrolls: +151K vs. +60K expected, -95K in Sept. Unemployment 9.6% vs. 9.6%...

Oct. nonfarm payrolls: +151K vs. +60K expected, -95K in Sept. Unemployment 9.6% vs. 9.6% expected, 9.6% prior.
Comments (24)
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Bears got crushed...
    5 Nov 2010, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    Strong aggregate weekly payrolls .....good for personal income....
    5 Nov 2010, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    Good number. Once again, why do we bother with the predictions? They are not even close.

     

    If only the politicians (that is you Dr. Bernanke) would get out of the way the American economy would surely heal itself.
    5 Nov 2010, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    I have been on the doomside of the deflationary equation for a long time expecting worse to come - the fact is there has been a bit of truth to both sides.

     

    The economy definitely decelerated from its originally reported peak rate of 5.9% to the recently completed 1.7% quarter so on a purely rate of change basis this was a massive growth deceleration which validated the bearish scenario for the economy. It is obvious from the FED statements in August onward they were deathly afraid of the double dip.

     

    The bullish scenario especially early in the year from the consensus forecasters was for much stronger growth and therefore they were wrong.

     

    The bearish scenario assumed that the directional change would continue and this does not appear to be the case as the economy may be going back into modest but upward growth.

     

    So although the bears are more right than wrong they are still wrong where it counts assuming you are investor in US markets. I count myself in the wrong camp at least temporarily.

     

    However, I find it insane that we now have a central planner for the stock market in the FED.

     

    Cash for Clunkers
    Handouts for Houses
    Bonds for Bankers
    Stocks for the Short Sighted

     

    I just can't believe that this will end well but that doesn't mean that you can't trade your way to success.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    My comments are directed to the economy. Trading is...well, trading. Better be lucky than smart.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Good one.

     

    That is like punching the doctor who saves your life because the medicine he gave you made you feel nauseous.

     

    Maybe you could have recovered without it...
    5 Nov 2010, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    No. It is like punching the doctor because you find out the medicine he gave you for a common cold gave you cancer.

     

    You see? I can come up with analogies too.

     

    QE will drive up the price of gasoline, hurt the poor, and do little else for the economy. The stock market will do whatever it wants and find a reason later.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    3 month moving average of monthly change in private payrolls now
    136,,,,,up from 91....
    5 Nov 2010, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1311) | Send Message
     
    the good: non-farm payrolls stronger than expected, good gain in temp help agencies, average hours up

     

    not good: household survey employment below june levels...
    5 Nov 2010, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    It appears that establishment survey has caught up with the household survey....in rate of change
    5 Nov 2010, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3340) | Send Message
     
    300K to 400K would be better, but this naive optimist will take it. Another excuse for the market to rise with weak volume, all those brittle band-aids used to prop the economy might just be working while I am sitting on cash.
    5 Nov 2010, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    Hate to be a buzz kill, but the job losses from November 07' to February 09' were so extreme that we need to gain 250K/month for 10 YEARS to get back to 5% U3 rate...Ouch!!!
    5 Nov 2010, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Billy Ford
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    its amazing how conditioned we have become over the last two years considering this will be looked at as something to get all 'giddy' about. After 2 years, we are still a long ways away from anything convincing in the job market
    5 Nov 2010, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Bear Bait
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Rome wasn't built in a day.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    let's agree on some items

     

    recession ended last year
    there is no double dip
    economy has been adding jobs all year - 10 straight months now
    Over 1 million adds inn 2010
    this number is reasonable but just adds to the trend it will get better.

     

    does anyobody still want to argue that unemployment is NOT a lagging indicator?
    the market points the way

     

    E
    5 Nov 2010, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    Depends on the definition or "recession"

     

    Double dip may or may not happen, but since it is in the future, we just don't know.

     

    We need upwards of 150,000 jobs every month JUST to keep up.

     

    Unemployment lags but nobody knows whether it will continue to improve.

     

    Economists with predictions are a dime a dozen and expensive at that price.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Size of civilian labor force decreased by 250,000.
    Not in Labor Force increased by 462,000.
    Participation rate declines to 25 yr low.....

     

    Can read the headline numbers all you want and cheer...that is the wrong direction for the numbers. Skews the percentage to make it appear things are getting better.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    these are the laggiest of the lagging numbers.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Wow they have been lagging for quite a while then.
    Participation (lagging since 2006?):
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...

     

    NILF has been lagging for a decade?
    www.zerohedge.com/site...
    5 Nov 2010, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Wagda
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    CES Birth-Death for October +61k
    5 Nov 2010, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    SNAP numbers for August...+500,000 to 42.3 million...another new record.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • bilalh1
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    so is this bad for US dollar?
    5 Nov 2010, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Bear Bait
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Damn, all them new Republicans haven't even been sworn in yet and the job picture is getting better already. Amazing, in just 3 days!
    5 Nov 2010, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3340) | Send Message
     
    Don't laugh. Everyone will want to take credit for something nobody has control over.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:38 AM Reply Like
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