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Doug Kass moves to his largest long exposure in 5 months, picking up SPY along with several...

Doug Kass moves to his largest long exposure in 5 months, picking up SPY along with several well-known big caps. Catching his eye is the rise in long-term bond yields amidst gloomy earnings reports. It tells him there's plenty of pent-up demand in the economy once the fiscal cliff is worked. through.
Comments (7)
  • Tommy the Cork
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
    yet bearish on AAPL? rates rise, taxes move higher and the regulatory state continues to expand while incomes stagnate and employment remains punk? The move in treasury yields the last couple of days makes him bullish? He may be correct but the rationale losses me..
    25 Oct 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • mystro1
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
    Regarding the comment on Doug Kass buying large cap names: it's really not worthwhile even mentioning any change in positioning as he changes almost everyday. So, a week from now, he might have changed four times before going completely long again. I listened three weeks ago when he said that one couldn't own any stocks in this environment.
    25 Oct 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Dirnfeld
    , contributor
    Comments (1128) | Send Message
    He won't even publish his track record, keeps it well hidden, though he is a lot better than Buffett, his reasoning and clarvoyiance are amazing.
    25 Oct 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Roman Chuyan, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
    We (finally) agree with Doug. It's hard to follow the logic coming from GS and others over the course of this year. While our PAR model ( was negative on the short-term expected return for SPY in March/April/May, it correctly called the rebound in June, while GS, and other large firms were still talking the market down. The model has been strongly positive ever since (last update still indicates a 9.9% six-month return). GS changed their tune late in the summer and finally got on board (much too late) with the rally and went positive. But now we see that this bullish call was only good for two months? That's just too manic for us - you can get a free copy of the PAR Model report and dive into the details of our forecast attribution by requesting a trial on our site. It is precisely our Economic factors that contribute to a positive forecast, with Market and Valuation factors neutral at best
    25 Oct 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • whidbey
    , contributor
    Comments (3391) | Send Message
    What is the significance of Kass? Nothing, since he is wholly unreported. He goes long and talks his book. As for the PAR model it takes guts to boost it here, the model forecast has yet to be vindicated. It does not consider the fiscal cliff as far as can be told. I do because I live in real time.
    25 Oct 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • 1234gel
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
    I would not doubt the wisdom of Doug Kass. On the surface it might be a little difficult to accept, but remember this guy is a forward thinker and not a prophet that specializes in the past.
    25 Oct 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Misrep1
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Gel - I wish I could be on the other side of all your trades. Kass - Wisdom, the guy is a newsletter salesmen.
    4 Nov 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
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