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Electric vehicle roundup: 1) Audi (VLKAY.PK) halts plans to develop the R8 e-tron due to high...

Electric vehicle roundup: 1) Audi (VLKAY.PK) halts plans to develop the R8 e-tron due to high costs. 2) Legal experts see dealer groups only having a slim chance to convince state judges to grant injunctions that will stop Tesla (TSLA +0.3%) from operating retail stores. 3) The Chevrolet Volt gets some publicity when President Obama reveals he took one for a spin on the grounds of the White House. 4) Toyota will introduce new hybrid Lexus models in the U.S. after 2012 YTD hybrid sales beat expectations.
Comments (13)
  • YTD hybrid sales beat expectations, but what were electric vehicle sales?
    25 Oct 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Bizarre. If those dealer groups did not expect Tesla to sell well, then they should have no concerns about the company. I've been in the Tesla store in the Galleria, and it is a refreshing surprise. At no time did it feel like any of the representatives were trying to sell me a car.
    25 Oct 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • When talking about EV cars, you can only talk about the Leaf - this last year sales - and we know the Leaf has its limitations - NEXT year we will talk about EV's again, only this time it will include Tesla's Model S, and the discussion will be a different one -
    25 Oct 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • I did a little research so I will now answer my own question. When 2012 began the forecast was for electric vehicle sales of about 100,000. http://bit.ly/S9waX9

     

    However through the first 6 months of 2012, 62,400 were sold, so it appears sales of 125,000 could be reached. http://bit.ly/Rm5Oid

     

    The US will have new car sales of about 14 million in 2012 so 125,000 is less than 1% of total sales.
    25 Oct 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Larry
    Your research needs a little work.
    62,400 is a projection of what would be sold in all of 2012.
    The projection was made in July.

     

    Through Sept. Total of Plug in cars about 30,000
    Of those 80% were Plug-in hybrids
    Inside EVs
    http://bit.ly/TjXhje

     

    This does not include Hybrids without plugs.

     

    It seems that 100 K projection will be a tad high.
    25 Oct 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, you are correct, in my haste to find an answer (I was at work) I misread the article. Thanks for the correction.

     

    Since most cars stay on the road for about 14 years it seems we are going to need oil and gasoline for a very long time.
    26 Oct 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • Average turn-over went to around 10 years at the worst levels of this economic downturn. Longer term historic trends are closer to 8 years refresh on automotive purchases. Current trends this year are closer to 8.8 years.

     

    It could take a very long time for electric cars to make any significant impact on the automotive market, or to gain any significant share of the user base. I think natural gas vehicles will have an larger impact in the near term. That will start with Shell and a few other companies setting up natural gas refueling points for long haul truckers, which will eventually get the general public more interested in natural gas vehicles. My feeling is that pure electric vehicles will remain a niche until a larger infrastructure to support them emerges.
    26 Oct 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Herr
    This is from January 2012.
    I haven't seen anything newer.

     

    Jalopy Nation? The Average Car on the Road Has Never Been Older

     

    http://ti.me/R7tQvB

     

    "These are the findings of the automotive research firm Polk, which released data showing that, as of June 2011, the average passenger car on the road was 11.1 years old, up from 11.0 as of 2010 and 10.8 in 2009. The aging of light trucks has occurred at an even swifter pace, averaging 10.4 years old in 2011, up from 10.1 in 2010 and 9.8 in 2009. Overall, all vehicles on the road today average 10.8 years old, up from 10.6 in 2010 and 9.0 as recently as 2002."
    26 Oct 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • I was trying to find the link again. Most are using the Polk figures, but there was an analysis using new car sales and vehicle registration figures that showed the improvement. My reply was also to Larry Smith stating it was "14 years", which none of the data supports.

     

    The point is that it will take a very long time to change the types of vehicles in use. I have heard some electric car advocates claim that we would see lots of electric cars on the road soon. The average buying data does not support "soon". Even if sales of gasoline vehicles were banned, taxed heavily, or even smaller bans like inner city driving, the reality is that we will not see a huge shift to electric cars in the near future. Electric cars are niche products.

     

    The Tesla approach could be profitable for Tesla, but I don't think it represents a model for future electric vehicles. People need to equivalent of gas stations for electric cars, with quick "refills" of the batteries. Despite some cities rolling out electric vehicle stations, the overall number is quite small.
    26 Oct 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Herr
    Yeah I knew your comment was to Larry. I was wondering if you had a different source. Or newer.

     

    I agree It will take decades.
    Tesla could be a niche player...or not.
    The rest seem to be backing out except Nissan which is having trouble in the heat. Next summer I expect the screaming to begin and by the end of the following summer they will be running for their lives.
    26 Oct 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • You guys are talking about the average age of the cars on the road, I was talking about the average life span of a car, which is over 13 years.
    http://bit.ly/RlFcQ3

     

    A car bought today, will likely still be on the road in 2026.
    27 Oct 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Have there been any announcements from Toyota regarding new Lexus hybrid models? Will they be adding hybrid options to the models that they already offer or are they only adding different styles to the current hybrid models?
    25 Oct 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • I think that the problem for de car producers is, to find peopel, in this crisis period, with enough money to spend for a new car.
    25 Oct 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
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