Seeking Alpha

More on Apple's FQ4: FQ1 guidance is for revenue of $52B and EPS of $11.75, below a consensus of...

More on Apple's FQ4: FQ1 guidance is for revenue of $52B and EPS of $11.75, below a consensus of $55B and $15.41 - guidance is typically conservative, but the EPS figure indicates margin pressure. iPhone sales above expectations, but iPad below lowered estimates. Gross margin was 40%, down 280 bps Q/Q and 30 bps Y/Y. Exc. retail, Americas revenue +43% Y/Y and Japan +113% (higher than FQ3), but Europe just +8% and Asia-Pac +15% (lower than FQ3). Retail +18%. AAPL still halted, to resume trading at 4:50PM ET. CC at 5PM. (webcast). (PR)

Check out Seeking Alpha’s new Earnings Center »

Comments (9)
  • Wim Lewi
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
    I am surprised the Gross margin fell that much, despite the iPhone mix improvement. This implies that the margin decline on the iPad was even worse than I expected. AAPL should be clearer on its product margins and give detailed product margin expectations. Now the market will be confused and might make it worse than it really is. My 12 month target of 500 USD of 3 week ago is getting closer, but much faster than I anticipated.
    Although the scenario is slightly different. I was hoping for a bounce on OK'ish numbers and increase my short. There has been a lot of negativity into the numbers. I believe there will be more negative margin news in the quarters ahead. I noted analysts on CNBC were already spinning the story that it's the supply chain troubles, the backorders, etc... Hopefully they can inflate the balloon once more.
    25 Oct 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tusc
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
    New products tend to hurt margins short term, til ramp up is in full motion. Focus on margin alone short term is not the best metric to base your investment strategy.Next quarter will be the tell.
    25 Oct 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
    Your term "spin by CNBC" is a little unsettling. Supply is it's primary concern! Millions of " potential " IPhone 5 buyers have waited since the introduction of the IPhone 4s to buy this new phone--- only to find that Apple management could not get the phones produced. If Apple would have had the product available, at least two week after introduction; this quarter's figures would have been outstanding. Now, the investor (me) must wait until January 25th for reward. This is not a "spin", just another example of POOR MANAGEMENT. The bigger problem is how many of these "ready to buy" phone buyer are so disappointed that they may lose their Apple appetites.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
    Says it all.

    25 Oct 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (1118) | Send Message
    Who was the analyst on seeking alpha that predicted only 21.5 million I phone sales?
    25 Oct 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • richbar
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
    Their revenue guidance for 1Q13 is only up 12% YoY. Their earnings/revenues for 4Q12 is down to 22.5% from around 25% for 2011-2012, indicating margin pressures. Their earnings guidance for 1Q13 works out to still lower earnings/revenues of 21%, but they are probably conservative here, not wanting to miss. Overall, it looks like earnings could be flat for 2013, much sooner than I expected. At a P/E of 15, a stock price 600 or close to it appears to be a fair valuation.
    25 Oct 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Vipertom
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
    Don't forget that 1Q12 had an extra week over 1Q13.
    26 Oct 2012, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • coolshaps
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
    They are totally going to beat analysts estimates for Q1 2013. I've been bearish on this stock, but I agree with richbar that $600 is a fair valuation w/ growth built into the stock price.
    25 Oct 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Gene S
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
    EPS was reduced by the combination of iPhone sales held down by people waiting for iPhone 5 while expenses for development and introduction of at least 4 new products were absorbed. I expect Q113 and Q213 to be blowout quarters because production will be ramped up and new countries will be added. China is going to be insatiable.
    26 Oct 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs