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Naturally, analysts are jumping all over Deckers Outdoor (DECK) with downgrades following the...

Naturally, analysts are jumping all over Deckers Outdoor (DECK) with downgrades following the retailer's weak Q3 report and outlook. The bullish-leaning Sterne Agree says it will talk to management before revising estimates, but yesterday's sharp cut in Q4 sales guidance from the firm to 6% growth from 19% seems to speak volumes already. DECK -18.7% premarket.
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Comments (7)
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
    19% sales growth quarter to quarter? The assault on this stock is pretty amazing. If they get the 6% sales growth and match last years 4th quarter profit at $3, they make $4 for the year. This is down somewhat from the prior year, but with stock at $30, it sure seems cheap. Nike makes $5.50 or so, though they are consistent quarter to quarter, stock trading $90.
    26 Oct 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • retail5
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    Luckycharlie, this stock is not cheap when you don't know where the bottom might be. Sales keep declining, costs increasing, GM is way off, heavy inventory, price reductions, over saturated distribution, weakening balance sheet, and mgmt constantly over-promising and under delivering.


    Furthermore, I don't understand all the little brands they carry, it's been a part of their strategy for years, yet none seem capable of repeating the UGG magic, they just flounder at the bottom of meaningless footwear brands. Looks like a distraction of resources. And the one big acquisition they made, Sanuk; now it appears they way over-paid for that one, where's the growth?


    Honestly, I've been a believer in mgmt and waiting for the turnaround to start to occur, but how long can you keep over promising and under delivering before you lose shareholder confidence -- what we are seeing is optimism doesn't necessarily lead to results. It now appears things might actually be WORSE than they appear.
    26 Oct 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
    No doubt they have been too optimistic, but the numbers seem to support a higher stock price. They have a lot riding on the 4th quarter and the 9% sales decline is cause for concern, but unlike many firms, they have a cushion while they work on the product line.
    26 Oct 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (10239) | Send Message
    DECK is way too cheap at this price.


    No analyst is predicting they will earn less than $3 per share next year.


    Great opportunity.
    26 Oct 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4391) | Send Message
    "..Naturally, analysts are jumping all over Deckers .."


    Yup, all those analysts are GREAT at predicting what happened LAST quarter.
    26 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • bigeasy8
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
    Cheap stock but one needs to see some sign of stabilization. I suspect that they have not had much success marketing UGGs to men, Tom Brady's commercials notwithstanding.
    31 Oct 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
    I can't recall seeing any television commercials for Uggs (I'm in Chicago area). My thought is that Uggs still have life in the Midwest, not so much in NYC and LA.
    31 Oct 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
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