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Roughly 70% of those surveyed by Institutional Investor expect higher stocks in the wake of a...

Roughly 70% of those surveyed by Institutional Investor expect higher stocks in the wake of a Romney victory, with half of those predicting a substantial rally. With an Obama victory, about three quarters expect anything from no move to a big sell-off. SPY +66% since 1/20/2009.
Comments (17)
  • A contrarian indicator if ever I saw one
    31 Oct 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • I don't believe President's have much sway over the market. The Clinton years look good, but most of that was the internet bubble, fortunately for him, he got out before the entire thing blew up. The Bush years look bad because the financial crisis hit right before he left. Does anyone think if a different President was in office the housing bubble would not have burst?

     

    I would not buy or sell based on a Presidential election.
    31 Oct 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Smith. I agree with you that the housing bubble would have burst regardless of who was president. For me, the housing bubble burst in 2005 in advance of the Pelosi Congress.

     

    In many ways, President McCain would have been a bigger disaster than Obama because the 2010 Republican tsunami would have been a slight gain for the Pelosi Congress.

     

    I think that while there is an upside limit to what a president can produce, we certainly know by now that never-ending class warfare, huge new government boondoggles requiring businesses to react on the fly, and a general feeling of malaise during Malaise II with the president's boot on the neck of business doesn't make for a buoyant market.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • I agree Larry. My evolving point of view is that Presidents' impact on the economy is like NFL quarterbacks -- they CAN make a difference, but most of the time, they get too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they go badly... what really matters is what is happening in the trenches.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Perhaps you are right, but I do think that proper leadership towards a more efficient economy would lead to a strong market, in the long run. Look at Reagan's moves in the early 1980s and the subsequent bull market.
    31 Oct 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • President Obama will win and stocks will rally till year end.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Everyting I have read says, based on history, it doesn't matter which party is elected. And, history says there is a rally after the election.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • If you have been one of the "closed door Romney donors", you'll do very well should Romney win.

     

    Investors in the stock market are up in the Obama years, just as they were under Clinton. Nate Silver's 538 website today projects 299 electoral votes for Obama. O is winning Ohio. Besides, he gets high marks in a crisis like Sandy. He performs presidentially. NJ Governor Christie will attest to that.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Presidential elections have no bearing...if they did and it were reliable, and you "buy this BS" then go long or short with all you have.

     

    OH, NO? OOOOOKAY.
    31 Oct 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • If Institutional Investor is right about the "expectations" (intentions?) of institutional money managers, it would seem there might be a trade either way. If Obama wins, wait for the sell-off to bottom and buy the market as reality and common sense return. If it's Romney, wait for the rally to top out and short it on the way back down as reality and common sense return.
    31 Oct 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • numbers can be interpreted as you like, infrastructure companies will move well up and defense contractors stall, oil will hold its own, and powder river basin coal will do very well, so its six of one and half dozen of the other, as usual
    31 Oct 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • as a non landlubber I see ups and downs from a different vantage point, first though condolences to the northeast, help should be poured into the area and any gougers or scammers dealt with harshly, not slaps on the wrist like after katrina with probation, put the jerks in jail in arizona in the summer. I rode it out in florida on the west coast and will move bck to virginia beach next month, but for now am staying with my etf funds and hoping for quiet waters in washington and a congress that is not gridlocked all year again.
    31 Oct 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Probably an odd week in trading next week, due to the hurricane shortened trading week we have now. Markets do not like uncertainty, so an election only removes uncertainty, if there is a clear early winner. Conflicts in voting, or legal challenges in some states, would bring in more uncertainty.

     

    Even bigger, Greece is nearing a deadline for another aid tranche. Just a slip-up in negotiations there could really rattle markets, regardless of what happens in the U.S.

     

    http://bit.ly/VaY1Zh

     

    Hopefully it all goes smoothly in the United States, so this little girl can stop crying.
    31 Oct 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Likely some of the respondents are being sincere, but also likely is some are people who are willing to lie, in order to try to influence other voters.
    Politics seems to be not a whole lot different than pro-wrestling, though when the politicans bellow, they do it at a slightly lower volume than the pro-wrestlers. But then, the wrestlers arent so disgusting either.
    31 Oct 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • The Market has had an incredible run since Pres. Obama was elected. Why should that change? And for that matter, how do people resolve the fact that the market has been up so much under an "anti-Wall Street" President? Separate the facts from the rhetoric and it is clear who should be our President for the next 4 years.
    31 Oct 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • The President doesn't really matter, Ben B. does a bit more, no ?
    1 Nov 2012, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • Historically, regardless of party, when a reelection occurs, the market goes up the following year by about 14%. When a new President is elected, it goes up about 18%. Probably means nothing, but interesting. And Laurent1962 is right. Ben B. can do more to make the market go up or down than the President. Strange country.
    1 Nov 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
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