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Alpha Natural Resources (ANR): Q3 EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.28. Revenue of $1.63B (-29% Y/Y). (PR)

Alpha Natural Resources (ANR): Q3 EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.28. Revenue of $1.63B (-29% Y/Y). (PR)
Comments (15)
  • sat_mcsd1
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Does any one knows the expectation on Revenues? I see that it beat the EPS estimate but not sure about the Revenue.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • cfb5006
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    1.69 billion from what I gather, seem like a miss on the top line. But still not a bad quarter, I bet it soars today with cash on hand now at $900 million.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • AxiosCap
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    There's little expectation of a meaningful recovery in met coal. The bond deal they just did increased their interest expense meaningfully. They announced a restructuring, but there's still great risk of B/K here.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    The B/K risk is low for the next 2-4 Quarters, they are cutting costs drastically and more is expected in the coming months.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • AxiosCap
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    Yes I don't think in the next year, but that doesn't mean the stock won't fall back down to 5. Look at PCX as an example. They lost one key customer and were done in 4wks.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    Yup just wanted to clarify that the BK risk isn't near term necessarily. It could bleed out though over the next 4-8 quarters it really depends on NG prices, regulation, and who is president.

     

    and while not necessarily in that order (NG>Regulation>P... I feel that it is that order personally.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Brandond
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Nice quarter; adding more ANR and WLT here today in anticipation of further strength once China announces additional easing which is a near certainty when leadership change occurs.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • AxiosCap
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    Go find what Einhorn said earlier this week about China and iron ore. I'd be really careful about adding met coal plays.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    met supply far outweighs demand currently adding is dangerous at this level for ANR, if it was back below 6$ it's a solid buy (for the speculative investor or someone looking to add a value risk play).
    2 Nov 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • CommodityRun
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    Lower ore makes the steel industry keep using its expanded capacity to try and eek out a profit even at lower steel prices, as they need to pay for that expanded capacity.

     

    Met coal dynamics are not paired with ore in the short term, and one Aussie flood changes everything dramatically.
    4 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • CommodityRun
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    Stock is itching to make a run at 13, shorts will bail and cover in real volume as price crosses 10. Push the long.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    not likely unless NG makes a similar run up in price.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • CommodityRun
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    NG has no impact on met coal pricing, other than supporting the price of steel for necessary NG infrastructure build out.

     

    ANR has become a pure met coal play, thermal is 100% contracted.
    4 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    thermal is 100% contracted for 2012 (which is almost over), they aren't 100% contracted for 2013 are they?

     

    Also ANR said that they could ramp up production if needed to meet market demand should it increase.
    4 Nov 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • CommodityRun
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    Good, but difficult question.

     

    As far as I can tell from the conf call, 20 - 25% of met contracted, 50% CAPP contracted and production to decrease, 50% NAPP contracted, and as much as 75% of PRB contracted but they could increase PRB production if pricing continues to improve.

     

    Management is totally focused on met as their ticket to any form of success.
    5 Nov 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
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