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The iPhone 5 is still supply-constrained at U.S. Apple Stores, says Piper's Gene Munster after...

The iPhone 5 is still supply-constrained at U.S. Apple Stores, says Piper's Gene Munster after polling 70 of them. He also found ongoing shortages at AT&T and Verizon, though Sprint's situation is said to be improving. Those comments are probably contributing to today's Apple (AAPL -2.7%) selloff, especially since Munster's Oct. 4 report on shortages proved accurate. On a more positive note, Munster's poll of 730 U.S. consumers found 55% of those planning to buy a smartphone indicating they want an iPhone 5.
Comments (37)
  • SidSilver
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    >The iPhone 5 is still supply-constrained at U.S. Apple Stores, says Piper's Gene Munster after polling 70 of them <

     

    That could be simply because they are selling much faster than aapl expected. My friend just got one and he says its amazing and far better than the 4 that he had. Plus, "It was just $199", he said. Who doesn't want one at this price?

     

    Munster should have checked if there were problems in the supply chain. Not whether there were enough available in stores. In fact, I would have been concerned if they had phones stock. It would mean less demand.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jeramy41
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. Without that piece of additional information, how do we classify an event such as this as either "supply constrained" or "extreme demand".
    2 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    A poll of 730 consumers. Wonder what the margin of error is on that.

     

    On an anecdotal note, I noticed two women in a Sprint store asking about the iPhone 5. Both mentioned trouble with getting the iPhone 5 at Verizon, and that they were willing to switch to Sprint to get one. Unfortunately the store manager told them it might be another week or two until they get another shipment. That Sprint (S) store did have an inventory of the iPhone 4S, but neither of the women were interested in that version. Obviously, this anecdote tells us nothing worthwhile for investment decisions, though it is not far off from surveys run by Gene Munster, who incidentally does not hold shares in AAPL.

     

    SidSilver has it exactly right. Check the suppliers, and not the stores.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Well if he held hsares of AAPL, you'd complain that he's just self-serving
    2 Nov 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    If Munster held shares in AAPL, I would have the same opinion about his opinions.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Check out Wall Street Breakfast here at Seeking Alpha.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Sharp is running into serious problems continuing operations. This is the company that Apple has shifted towards for major components, and away from Samsung. Doubts about Sharp will create doubts among financial managers at major institutional investors. Neither Panasonic nor Sony are doing well either.

     

    If Apple is unable to exert pricing pressure on suppliers, then margins will be reduced. If Apple is limited in their choice of suppliers, this can also affect margins. Why is anyone surprised by any of this?
    2 Nov 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • gblack
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    I'm amazed - a FANTASTIC problem for any company to have - it's not like the consumer can't get one, so he/she leaves to buy an Android. Yet the market is punishing the stock already at bargain prices, and the empty suit FB is doing fine (until the dump).
    2 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • teachinator
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    This is a question I was planning to post. I would think that having so much demand that it's hard to keep the iPhone 5 in stock would increase the demand, make it more of a prestige item, and create good buzz about its desirability, raising the stock price. It's not as if Apple won't be able to meet the demand.

     

    So why should a stock get hammered because there is too much demand for its product and it's hard to keep in the stores? This is not a rhetorical question. Can someone explain?
    2 Nov 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    The market dislikes uncertainty. Suddenly, with executive changes, new suppliers, and supply chain issues, there is uncertainty in AAPL. I would imagine small investors sticking with the company, though large institutional investors may be taking some profits.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • tom434
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    The problem of Apple are not the supply constrains. The problem is lack of innovation for more than 24 months. The latest impressing product was the iPhone 4. This company is sitting on more than 100 billions and all they can deliver are size variations and processor step-ups? Mr. Cook - please leave!!!
    2 Nov 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    This is usually a recipe for disaster. I'm an Apple bull, but management has mishandled -- surprisingly -- a number of issues this time around.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Loneflycaster
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand this supply constraint bs. This is a post I made regarding my i-5 purchase on 10/9/12 through AT&T. My phone was the full-bore version so maybe the constraints are for the less endowed models.

     

    [10/12/2012 11:17:40 AM] Amazing, I ordered an i-5 on Tues. and was told it would take 3-4 weeks. Got a message yesterday that it was shipped on Wed.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    OK. I love this logic: The company is selling so many products that they can't make enough of them. And that means sell the company's shares. WTF?
    2 Nov 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • aparo201@google.com
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    it's a good problem to have only to a point, and that point is long past. i was at the NY main store today and a guy wanted to by one and it was out, he was clearly a European tourist. So that's a potential lost sale. that guy may get one in the future, but he may not, and if they had it in the store that would have been another iPhone sold.

     

    Apple makes money by selling things, not unmet demand. I am an apple bull, but this supply issue is no way a positive.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Somporn Suksi
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Seems like we can't win here. Sold out (iP5) and people still waiting? Sell. Not sold out (iPad mini) and people not in long lines? Sell. Does anybody know what the big money (and long stock holders) are doing here? It just seems like sell, sell, sell is the mantra despite every rational data point being positive (except for the management thing, which is murky at best).
    2 Nov 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • pirota
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    Internal Source is that you ?!
    2 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Somporn Suksi
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, p, I changed to my real name. Hey sorry about my flame-out on you a few weeks ago! It was the pinot noir talking...! >.<
    6 Nov 2012, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • wbrowder@swbell.net
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    "Supply constraints" is a big word for poor planning. I am very long Apple & have loss thousands of paper profit in the last 4 months, plus have just purchased Feb & Mar 2013 calls at 2:50pm today. So I am "a believer", a Apple follower, but if management were doing their job, we would not be seeing this continued down turn.
    As I see it, it is a great opportunity; if Apple will get the product out, before additional market is lost.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • John1138
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    "market is lost"

     

    That is the central point isn't it? I wonder if there's data on whether there is a significant "lost sale" factor in shipping delays?
    2 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • dab3z
    , contributor
    Comments (312) | Send Message
     
    Poor planning? Seriously? There's no company on earth that can match Apple's production line. You don't create a new production line that can pump out tens of millions of phones overnight. It takes time. Calm down.
    2 Nov 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • jocca
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Apple has a problem that its competitors would die for, that is to have the kind of demand that far exceeds the capacity to meet it. And people will wait weeks to get their iPhone 5 and not go elsewhere. I think Apple will rock this Christmas.
    2 Nov 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Yokyok
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    It amazes me that people actually buy those things at all.
    DEAR APPLE: I'm Leaving You
    http://read.bi/Ps2GDp
    2 Nov 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mortonk
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    It's a good day for the bears in any case, if rumour and confusion can cause this sort of drop in one day, then the whole financial marketing system is a circus.......don't waste your time on day trading and the glorified gamblers that these traders are.....the stock is sound and the next quarter will be the one to gauge Apple on. Short sellers were backed up to take out a target as big as Apple.....!
    2 Nov 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    SUPPOSE IN THE END THEY ONLY MAKE 30 MILLION PHONES? WILL THEY MAKE ENOUGH MONEY THEN? THE PRICE IS FIXED LAST I HEARD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE, AND LABOR COSTS WILL DOUBLE, ALONG WITH THE FACT MANY ASSEMBLERS DON'T APPRECIATE BEING FORCED OUT OF SCHOOL TO ASSEMBLE THEM???SO HOW GUARANTEED ARE I5 PROFITS??STOCK IS WHAT NOW? MANAGEMENT IS CLEARLY A BUNCH OF BOZOS, THE CORPORATE ANALOG OF A ROD.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • cuervoferoz
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    "...especially since Munster's Oct. 4 report on shortages proved accurate"

     

    Not sure in what respect his report was accurate.... Munster reduced his Q4 iphone sales estimate to 25 million. Iphone sales came in at nearly 27 million. all we really know is that supply is equal to demand - we don't know a that apple is actually selling fewer iphones than analysts estimated.

     

    I wouldn't buy this stock right now as every current apple story is spun negatively. Sentiment is such a huge player in this stock that history has proven that with sentiment so goes AAPL stock price. I do certainly plan to initiate a position once I sense sentiment turning the corner however, and I suspect that it will. a 13X prior 12 PE and a fatly profitable holiday season is just too tempting to pass up.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • DavidHRC
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    As a pollster, I'd have to say that a "sample" of 70 locations, perhaps not even selected randomly, is a poor excuse for a database to make such a sweeping conclusions. Just because Munster was lucky once doesn't ensure a continued run of luck.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • trade bait
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Supply chain is fine. As much as wall st loves to beat up on aapl we'd know if it was supply chain issues. Secondly Tim is a supply chain guru.

     

    What's the issue is aapl can only make 500k iPhones a day. They sell out every phone basically everyday. I'm pretty sure they are still making the 4s as well seeing they sold over 20m last quarter.

     

    What we are witnessing right now is bashing and manipulation of a well run company stock.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    I may be the only Apple bull who believes that Cook's supply chain management here has been horrible. Bashing and manipulation is part of the story, but not all of it. I expected much more of a "guru".
    2 Nov 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • AppleTops
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Just got ours delivered from ATT. 21 days on the button.
    2 Nov 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Shut up!!! Sit down!!!! I told you not to be stupid you moron. I'll blank you like a wild aminal it is.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • mrfisher111
    , contributor
    Comments (375) | Send Message
     
    they will fix there supply constraints but with items in this much demand this company will take off and they are building more stores. They are just getting bigger and bigger. They will make more and new products in the future. great buying opportunity at 575. Anything below 650 i thought was a great opportunity.
    3 Nov 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • ptmolina
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Me and my wife will be switching to iPhone 5 from Samsung I. We are encountering numerous problems like misconnections, freezing to say the least.
    3 Nov 2012, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • Bmgue12
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    I am long in AAPL and I do not want the stock to go down. Cook is doing something to improve the production and hopefully keep up with with the demand. Yes, it will be some buyers that will purchase others phones but some will wait, I am one of them. Yes, the market does not want uncertainties, none of us like that, we just have to keep tie and wait for the best. We like AAPL for their products and fundamentals so we should ignore all the distractions from all the ones are bashing AAPL because that can get us easy out of the market and we will lose. Lots of luck to all.
    3 Nov 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2878) | Send Message
     
    Stop losses around 200MA have been hit.

     

    Liquidity crunch is happening, as evidenced by the massive drop in gold and significant rally in USD. So some leveraged funds must reduce risky positions, including AAPL.

     

    On the other hand, huge uncertainties with respect to US election, China's leadership change, and European soap opera are preventing major institutions to defend AAPL seriously.
    3 Nov 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    This is quite true. Once the 200 day was broken, everyone and their uncle had a sell in. The few times that Apple has broken under the 200-day in recent years, it has recovered above that level quite well. The problem w/ AAPL is that there aren't any near term catalysts to mobilize the bulls and all the news seems to have a negative spin to it (another way that supply constrained could be presented is overwhelming demand, but you never get that spin). The stock has run up so much in the last year that there's a lot of room for a sell-off.

     

    Both the P/E and share price relative to the 200-day are scraping the bottom right now relative to recent history.
    3 Nov 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • johnofarizonaoregon
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    This week I visited my local Verizon store to upgrade to an iPhone 5 and was told they are out of supply and will not have more for about two weeks. The price to upgrade with a 2 year contract renewal is $199 plus a $30 upgrade fee. Verizon applies the $30 upgrade fee to all phones, including Android phones. My wife upgraded her Droid and was also charged the $30 upgrade fee.
    3 Nov 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    If it is not a Quinnipiac Poll, then it is not worth reading about.

     

    Until Frank Luntz holds a focus group and discusses this, I will not comment.

     

    I am long aapl.
    3 Nov 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
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