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“Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving...

“Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s," according to a study which shows that few countries manage the transition from "catch-up" to advanced nation. Currently China's per capita GDP is half that of Mexico's.
Comments (2)
  • Chris S
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    "Absent continuing reforms..."

     

    So assuming they don't change anything, their growth will slow? How likely is that?
    29 Dec 2010, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4559) | Send Message
     
    There is less new in this study than readers might assume. China and its trading partners have always known that the current export driven eastern seaboard, force-fed economy would only take China so far for so long and that a difficult and dangerous transition to a more domestically centred economy, one directed at and encompassing all regions of China, would have to be engineered at an appropriate time which could not be delayed unduly. Part of the debate between China and the US centres on this very point with the US pushing China to begin significant transition moves now and with China arguing that to do so now would be premature and threaten both its economic and political stability.

     

    Also the reference to Mexico’s level of economic development is suspect. The circumstances, society and history of the two countries are very different. Further, given that the per capita GDP of China would have to double to match that of Mexico
    (a) imagine what the doubling of the per capita GDP of a country with China’s population would mean in terms of a shift to China of economic power in the world (hint:- even with its current low per capita GDP, China now ranks second to the US in the world as an economic power), and
    (b) appreciate that even under a 10% rate of per capita GDP expansion annually, it will take China 7.2 years to attain Mexico’s current per capita GDP (meanwhile Mexico and other similar economies will presumably also be growing at a reasonably high rate).

     

    In short, this isn’t a short term issue.
    29 Dec 2010, 10:11 PM Reply Like
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