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Initial Jobless Claims: -34K to 388K vs. 418K consensus. Continuing claims +57K to 4,128,000.

Initial Jobless Claims: -34K to 388K vs. 418K consensus. Continuing claims +57K to 4,128,000.
Comments (17)
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    They were all out buying Ipads and toys...it will be back up next week....
    30 Dec 2010, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    It was the blizzard. No one could get to the office to file a claim.
    30 Dec 2010, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    Seasonal factor was 1.345...that made the decline greater than it probably really is....
    30 Dec 2010, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    Non seasonally adjusted jobless claims....

     

    12/25/10 521,834
    12/26/09 556,517
    12/27/08 717,000
    12/25/05 446,699

     

    California improved,,,,,new yearly low for California's 52 week
    moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims....

     

    Get ready for the mother of all seasonal factors on 1/08/11 at
    1.73....
    30 Dec 2010, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • barakg
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    bbro, lets take your analysis a step further. the NSA is 5.5% lower than last year when the 4 week seasonally adjusted was at about 450,000. taking 5.5% off gives ~425000 seasonally adjusted for this year, which is about the same as the last few weeks.
    30 Dec 2010, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    Today's numbers are probably overstated...the numbers i like to
    follow are California's....if their year over year nymbers continue to drop then
    we will see improving numbers plus California is a central point in
    the housing crisis.....
    30 Dec 2010, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    bbro...does the seasonal factor change Y/Y?

     

    Guess the good news is NSA not as bad as last year.
    30 Dec 2010, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    Not to get too technical....I believe they use an autoregressive model
    to predict...so yes they do adjust for factors....they do a pretty good
    job but that is why i like to look at non seasonally adjusted jobless
    claims year over year which is a simple way of dealing with seasonal
    issues....I believe they will come out with a new set of seasonal factors in March....

     

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

     

    Sorry if i put you to sleep....my wife says its a guaranteed way
    to put somebody to sleep....
    30 Dec 2010, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    I get it -1 for mentioning my wife....
    30 Dec 2010, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    No I appreciate it.
    I know the headline followers only look at the headline number and don't delve into it as much as you do.
    Do you think CA budget issues will have an impact on it's ability to recover? They seem so restrictive it seems quite a challenge for the private sector to grow. Additionally, it would seem the state and municipalities will have to cut more to get things under control. Of course I'm at the extreme other end of the country (FL) and may not be viewing things properly.
    30 Dec 2010, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    I'm surprised I didn't get one for asking you a question.
    30 Dec 2010, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
     
    I feel for you... Florida....the housing issue is huge...the delinquency numbers the foreclosure numbers are atrocious and probably worst
    I have seen ( except for Nevada which is the one state in the union
    that in aggegate is entirely negative equity...119%)...Florida is 89% and
    California is 70%....ironically i think California has been helped by getting the foreclosures out there faster and start moving on......the muni issue is big in California But I think a more long term issue.....

     

    Sorry the 119% means Mortgage outstanding to property value....
    Source Core Logic....
    30 Dec 2010, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Have a happy New Year.
    30 Dec 2010, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    I think its a one off....Christmas on a Saturday..bad weather...all the usual suspects...when the people sober up they will file again...and again..and again....its the new job growth..
    30 Dec 2010, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (380) | Send Message
     
    And next week it will "unexpectdly" increase. The Public Sector layoffs
    in effect in the next couple of weeks, besides 388k people being laid off every week is not encouraging, how many more people can be laid off? soon it will be zero, no else to layoff.
    30 Dec 2010, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Anyone care to venture a guess on where the 133,000 jobs came from? Unadjusted and adjusted claims should be reversed to warrant the fan fare. At least..
    30 Dec 2010, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (380) | Send Message
     
    Announced job cuts surged in November
    CHICAGO, Dec. 29 (UPI) -- Announced job layoffs at U.S. firms rose 28 percent in November over October, employment research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Wednesday.

     

    The number of announced job cuts was the highest since March, but the year's total through November remain 60 percent below the number for the first 11 months of 2009, the firm said.

     

    In November, U.S. firms announced they were eliminating 48,711 jobs.
    30 Dec 2010, 10:27 AM Reply Like
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