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Dec. ADP Jobs Report: +297K vs. +100K expected and +92K prior (revised from +93K). The pace of...

Dec. ADP Jobs Report: +297K vs. +100K expected and +92K prior (revised from +93K). The pace of job growth was "well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate... After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated."
Comments (32)
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4109) | Send Message
     
    ....and there was much gnashing of teeth and stomping of feet...
    5 Jan 2011, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • berated
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    I suspect your comment is directed at perma-bears, but it will be interesting to see if the bulk of this increase is temporary/seasonal retail hiring or something more permanent.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Permabears? Truthseekers is a more apt description.

     

    Dude - don't you understand?

     

    Ofcourse its bad news, all the news is bad

     

    This is the way the world is;

     

    All bad news is true
    All good news is untrue and is really bad news

     

    297k - bah. Probably just a bunch of burger flippers and anyway it is clear that ADP has been infiltrated by the BLS Goebbels brigade. The Government is just manipulating us.

     

    If you want the truth go to zerohedge.

     

    There is no recovery. There is no recovery. There is no recovery.

     

    Top 50 Commenter status - here I come.

     

    E
    5 Jan 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • The Enterprising Value Inve...
    , contributor
    Comments (558) | Send Message
     
    you do realize the number is seasonally adjusted right?
    5 Jan 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • JBAND3
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Here is a truth if ADP predicts a sustainable truth: Higher Interest Rates! Much Higher! A dead housing market. More defaults by consumers.Less spending. Less corporate growth. More unemployment. It's debt not employment that is the elephant in the room..
    5 Jan 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    Why all the fuss doc? As you told us many times before, you are doing well peddling your predictions. What do you care what "the clowns from SA" say?

     

    Please give my regards to the Kardashians.
    5 Jan 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Oh ho. Here comes the gloom crew.

     

    Kardashians are also in the service sector. You do know that. Right? You also know that they and other content that is seen outside the US are an export business. You get how that works. Right? Please tell me you understand the way the real economy works rather than the strawman that you and the rest of the SA clown chorus hold so dearly.

     

    Coming back to the Kardashians. My guess is that they provide more employment - either directly or indirectly than you and all the other clowns on this thread combined. Love them or hate them...they are entrepreneurs. What do you bring to the table?

     

    I love it.

     

    No fuss old boy. You been right for the past 600 points and will probably be right for the next 600 points on the S&P. Of that I have no doubt.

     

    There is no way that there is any recovery. Whatsoever. You and the rest of the SA clown show has totally nailed it.

     

    Negative thumbs are the best contraindicator. Period.

     

    E
    5 Jan 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    Calm down doc. You have absolutely NO IDEA of who I am, what I do, or how much employment I generate.

     

    I will agree with you that the Kardashians bring more benefit to society than most economists, consultants, and other "forecasters," which is the reason I would never want to be counted among you.

     

    Don't worry. Your gig is still safe. The managers of OPM will continue to hire the likes of you with their client's money to justify why they bought the day before Bear Stearns or Spain collapsed. It is called the "nobody could have known" clause included in page 322 of investment policy contract.
    5 Jan 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4445) | Send Message
     
    If you're bearish long enough sooner or later you will be right and if you're bullish long enough sooner or later you'll also be right. Even better, if you're a permabull you'll be right longer and more often. The key is to be neither...
    5 Jan 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Harry Tuttle
    , contributor
    Comments (2221) | Send Message
     
    kmi,

     

    That was true in the PAST. The future is NOT known (no matter what Abby Cohen says).

     

    For example, a Japanese permabull has been wrong for 20 years. An American permabull for 10 (using 3 month t-bill as the alternative).
    5 Jan 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    Would you two stop bickering.
    5 Jan 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4445) | Send Message
     
    I was mostly responding to berated's comment of "I suspect your comment is directed at perma-bears".

     

    Additionally, even though I concede your point, I'd still suggest avoidance of perma-anything.
    5 Jan 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    Where were they created???? Mostly service sector...hmmmmm
    5 Jan 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4109) | Send Message
     
    "Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report."

     

    Read the report - it gives a rough breakdown of additions by business type.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4109) | Send Message
     
    Due to the fact that we live in a consumer-based economy (70%?), I would argue that a disproportionate increase in service-related jobs is not only not a surprise, but is to be expected.

     

    Either way, the bottom line number blew away expectations. I assume those expectations were based on several factors, and were not the result of a dart thrown at a board of numbers.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    quite right - probably a lot of low value temporary jobs like software engineers, industrial designers, any kind of engineer, anything with design in the title, also architects, all doctors, all lawyers, research scientists, actually anything with research or science in the title, also biotech, if you work in advertising or marketing - also low value added, Includes other assorted leeches - anything to do with financial services, everyone who works at SA, all internet related jobs, everyone in retail, logistics, transportation, shipping, etc. etc. All temporary, all not "real" jobs. We all know what they are.

     

    The true number of rea jobs was pobably a negative after you take all those leeches out.

     

    E
    5 Jan 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    I have two buddies with sons who just graduated with engineering degrees - had their picks of jobs. One quit his first job to be closer to his girlfriend, easily found another.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Ken Solonika
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Easily found another....girlfriend or job??

     

    (rimshot....)
    5 Jan 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    lol.
    6 Jan 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    Jobs beget jobs beget jobs......let's hope it holds.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10526) | Send Message
     
    hmmmmmmmmmm.....
    5 Jan 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Is this really a surprise?

     

    Boom goes the dynamite.

     

    QE2? QE 1.5 is more likely.

     

    E
    5 Jan 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    "all doctors, all Lawyers"...do you think they just sit around unemployed...lol...a doctor out of work...NOT..a Lawyer...they just sue someone....LOL...come on..we do not have any engineers to hire...Gangbangers yes...RAP stars yes...
    5 Jan 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    I must just hang around with people who's kids want to be engineers. In my small neighborhood alone four come to mind. Maybe it's the three local colleges that all have strong engineering programs, maybe Cincinnati is the only city that produces engineers.
    5 Jan 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • JBAND3
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Has one ADP report solved state and local budgetary problems? These layoffs are starting to be reported. This will be big, and bad, don't yea think?
    5 Jan 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    You are quite right, it won't. But, we are hoping that with these signs of economic growth, we will be able to tamp down some of these problems.
    5 Jan 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • hammering home
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I think I will wait for the U-6 (or even the 9.8% published number) number to improve a smidgen,just a smidgen mind you, before I get all giddy. After all, this is really the first real happy news about employment in two years. The question is will it last . With such a huge gap between expectations and reality, I immediately become suspicious. What effect did the Holiday season have on these numbers? 297K is not a lot when compared to weeks upon months of 400k+ first time unemployment claims.
    5 Jan 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    This is obviously a very strong report but it is somewhat confusing.

     

    I saw a release yesterday which said that the State reported unemployment rates rose by a large amount in December in what was described as totally unexpected.

     

    abcnews.go.com/Busines...
    "The unemployment rate rose in more than two-thirds of the nation's 372 largest metro areas in November, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That's a sharp reversal from the previous month and highest number in five months. Below are the unemployment rates for states and cities in the Northeast."

     

    It's weird.

     

    To those who are criticizing these as service jobs well that's just the fact of having about 85% of your GDP based upon the service sector of the economy so I am not sure how job growth concentrated in this area of the economy could be considered bad.
    5 Jan 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • mowjo
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    The Perma Bears don't even believe it when the read ;"Sunrise 743am tomorrow." I personally hope everyone of them is long Gold and short the market. Put your money where your mouth is. I'm not short nothin'. I don't even own an inverse ETF. This and a buck 29 will get you a cup of coffee at Miranda's. 2011 will be a good year.
    5 Jan 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • hammering home
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    First time unemployment numbers this week at 409K. See what I mean? Another data point to chart. The trend may look slightly better charted, but essentially nothing is changing.

     

    Reality is the only thing" Perma" and denying it will destroy portfolios, countries and happiness.
    6 Jan 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Armistead
    , contributor
    Comments (5774) | Send Message
     
    I see 297,000 green shoots.
    6 Jan 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • hammering home
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if those shoots look good or bad amongst the million or so dead blades of grass from the same time period? Half empty/half full argument I guess....
    6 Jan 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
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