How much higher can the aging bull run? Economists see the recovery accelerating, but in the...

How much higher can the aging bull run? Economists see the recovery accelerating, but in the long run, the U.S. has yet to prove that the economy can truly improve without government stimulus. But for now, "Here's the ugly truth. The market is innocent until proven guilty... You have to give the rally the benefit of the doubt."

Comments (17)
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6879) | Send Message
    As Ben Graham would say, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
    13 Jan 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Gaping hole in the ocean
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
    That weight is going to crush a lot of pigs and sheep.
    13 Jan 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Credible Clarity
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
    Speaking of aging . . . 35 years ago, a stream of contributions began to flow into retirement plans. As more Baby Boomers entered the work force and rose the ranks into higher compensated roles, those contributions surged.
    Has the counter distribution stream begun? Who will the pension plans, insurance companies' annuities, mutual funds etc... sell their investments to they redeem to pay retirees? Especially given the many underfunded plans.
    13 Jan 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • nobby73
    , contributor
    Comments (1176) | Send Message
    This is a socio-economic brick wall that the economy will run into. Add to higher cost of living, especially housing and energy, the crushing debt burden today's graduates face means there is precious little income available to throw into the markets. For a while, we'll see the rise of the machines, pushing prices higher with ever greater leverage, but this will leave the markets even more exposed to downturns. We are creating inflation to protect the asset holders, but the stimulus is a blunt instrument and it will not lift demand in the areas we hope it will, but rather raise prices on what we need to survive on a day to day basis.


    My view is our current market system is dead, it just hasn't realized it yet.
    14 Jan 2011, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • somecatchyphrase
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
    Excellent comment.


    Very few observers seem to appreciate the role of demographics is playing in everything that's going on.


    Many seem to be looking for monetary and fiscal solutions to what are essentially demographic problems.
    14 Jan 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • stmcca02
    , contributor
    Comments (195) | Send Message
    The bulls will continue to run because Europe isn't letting the Euro fail.
    13 Jan 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Bill S. Friend
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
    Perhaps they can inflate their way out of debt... It will be a race to the bottom. Investors in printing presses and ink should do well. Gold and silver may advance as a store of wealth. If the USD has lost nearly 100% in the last 40 years what do the next 40 hold?
    13 Jan 2011, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • greenzulu
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
    There is always 100% left to lose until you get to zero.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (9119) | Send Message
    What was that Abe said, you can fool some of the people all of the time, .........................
    13 Jan 2011, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • mikeybronx
    , contributor
    Comments (382) | Send Message
    it should not be debated whether we will have a bear or bull market, it should however be debated where can the money be made given the current economic conditions.
    13 Jan 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Power Hedge
    , contributor
    Comments (1150) | Send Message
    Agreed! Sometimes I think that people are too focused on what the market is going to do that they ignore the goal of investing and why we all do it - To make money.


    I don't care whether we are in a bear or a bull market... I invest to make money.
    13 Jan 2011, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • greenzulu
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
    The current economic conditions tend to favor Soylent Green.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Djvu
    , contributor
    Comments (574) | Send Message
    "You have to give the doubt the benefit of the rally"
    13 Jan 2011, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • greenzulu
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
    It's strange to see the market up 90+ days, setting records, etc. But to assume buyers are just stupid seems dangerously arrogant.


    The only alternative explanation I can come up with is that investors would rather hold just about anything but currency[ies]. So energy or materials or gold or "name brand" equities seem a safer bet, ironically. It might actually be true. Maybe its not so stupid.
    13 Jan 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4744) | Send Message
    Well, money flows into 401ks and IRAs day in day out as people fund their retirements. People put money into any market every day because they can't do otherwise or they don't know any better. No one seems to really hold cash anymore, the whole idea of "I don't trust banks and keep my money under the mattress" is gone, today it is "I don't trust banks but gotta put my money somewhere".
    14 Jan 2011, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • been there
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
    positively will .no other option .inflation is a tax on everybody and govt can not pass on that
    13 Jan 2011, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
    You lost me at "Economists see..."
    13 Jan 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
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