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The PC industry could lose 50M-100M units in annual sales by 2015 thanks largely to the impact...

The PC industry could lose 50M-100M units in annual sales by 2015 thanks largely to the impact of mobile devices, argues Barclays in a depressing report. Barclays, which is cutting estimates for Dell (DELL) and H-P (HPQ), forecasts PC sales will fall another 4% next year to 338M, and total just 311.5M in 2015. On the other hand, it expects tablet sales to reach 182M next year and 300M in 2016. Longbow is also downbeat, claiming checks indicate notebook orders are being cancelled; ultrabook demand is soft, and Intel and AMD are cutting prices.
Comments (40)
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    well, that's it.

     

    people don't need productivity devices anymore.

     

    now it's purely about consumption. Pentium 4 is good enough for everyone.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure the guys who made buggies and carriages were depressed about the automobile too. It's called progress, only depressing to those locked in dying industries.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8857) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure you wrote that on a PC (or, as I know you're an Apple fan, a Mac).
    12 Nov 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    It's a poor analogy because I don't think tablets are going to completely displace 'PCs'. In 20 years specialists, programmers, and clerical staff will still use dedicated PCs, it's just not going to be the default form factor anymore.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    The form-factor argument is brain-dead to begin with. Folks are still going to want performance and features and somebody is going to make money satisfying that just as has been going on since the first mainframe. That it comes in a smaller form-factor doesn't change that dynamic. It's like claiming that the computing industry died because folks stopped buying mainframes. The computing industry isn't dying.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    I'm not even sure what you are saying. The computer industry is not dying, it's being transformed. It happens every once in a while.
    * The rise of the PC versus mainframe/ mini computers
    * Client/ Server computing
    * Graphical User Interfaces
    * World Wide Web
    * The introduction of useful portable computers
    * Smartphones
    * Tablet computers

     

    Each of these phases changed computing in a profound way and each time things changed, often players who were strong in one phase fell down in the next. When we moved from mainframes to PCs IBM lost influence. Word Perfect and Novell were huge before Windows caught on. The Web caused a resurgence in Unix and the ascendance of Linux on the server.

     

    Mainframes didn't go away, they are just less common. Desktop computers are going to suffer a similar fate.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8857) | Send Message
     
    Desktops already got squeezed by the laptop.

     

    You don't honestly think that when we say "PC" we mean just "desktop computer", do you?
    12 Nov 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    Are you honestly confused about what I mean or just being pedantic?
    12 Nov 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    How did IBM lose influence? They created the IBM PC for one. They also created a whole slew of mid-range systems. They were and still one of the most successful companies in the computing industry. The fact is the new players in the computing industry are going to look a lot like the current successful players in the industry. Despite your claim the industry isn't dying. The changes we're seeing now aren't unique. They've been going on since the inception of the industry. There may be specific weak players that disappear, but to say the industry is going away is analyst pabulum to get fools to churn their accounts.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    Dennis, the problem is you're confused about what you mean. The industry isn't dying. For that matter the substance of what is a "personal computing device" isn't changing, it's only the form that it resides in that is changing, and it's successful companies that first helped create what you know as the desktop PC that are integral to that change. Anyone that thinks a company such as Intel isn't best positioned to fit the performance and features of a desktop into the smaller mobile form-factors hasn't a grasp of this "dying" industry or where it's going.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    How did IBM lost influence? Maybe you need to revisit the history of computing. IBM got trounced in the 80s-90s. The markets and technology changed and they didn't.

     

    The same thing is happening now, the market is changing. Companies that don't adapt are getting left behind. It's already started. Dell, HP, and Microsoft are scrambling to change fast enough. Dell is trying to mimic IBM and become a service company. Microsoft is trying to become Apple. HP doesn't know what they heck they are doing.
    13 Nov 2012, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    How did they get trounced?
    13 Nov 2012, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure if you are asking leading questions for a purpose or just too lazy to do a little basic research.
    13 Nov 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    but digital the maker the mini computer died when that form factor went out of vogue.
    Tablets are mostly served by ARM. Intel and AMD have yet to change that.
    13 Nov 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    It's a leading question, on the off chance that maybe you'd do a little basic research.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    How'd that work out for you?
    13 Nov 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (5948) | Send Message
     
    Isn't the industry just parsing the terminology? Whats the difference between a PC and a tablet? While PC sales are remaining relatively flat, tablet sales are surging.

     

    The big issue is that DELL and HPQ are missing out on the shift from desktop computers to mobile computers. Thats all.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    It seems to be that nowadays people use the word "tablet" to denote ARM based devices running tablet specific operating systems; completely ignoring the fact that the firm factor predates that combination.

     

    In addition to which it is increasingly more obvious that the tablet OS will likely merge with their desktop counterparts shortly.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • DavyJ
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    Somehow I can't visualize an accountant doing tax returns on a tablet. In fact, I can't envision me doing my tax return on a tablet.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • johnycarrs
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Get a wireless keyboard, give it 2 years and you will be!
    12 Nov 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    >> Somehow I can't visualize an accountant doing tax returns on a tablet. In fact, I can't envision me doing my tax return on a tablet.

     

    I was debating buying Turbo-Tax for my iPad (they make it) but we'll probably get the desktop version at least this year.

     

    Desktops and laptops are not going away, they will be around for a long time. Much like laptops squeezed desktop computer sales, tablets are squeezing laptop and desktop sales. Each time a new, compelling form-factor is introduced sales for the existing form-factors is impacted as consumers adjust their buying habits.

     

    Desktops are almost certain to become the tools of specialists while the majority of people use tablets, laptops, and possibly hybrids like the surface.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • sreimer77
    , contributor
    Comments (237) | Send Message
     
    and that is called a computer!
    13 Nov 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    All we care about is form-factors. The little compute thingy inside is difficult to fathom so we prefer to focus on the outside dimensions. That's why people buy the outside thingy. The inside thingy just comes along for the ride.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Michael2343
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Short tech.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • skiz
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    Link bait!
    12 Nov 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • skiz
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Buying opportunity! At $26.75, backing out cash minus debt and tax (~$4/share) and one-time write down, this is a P/E of ~8 and dividend return of 3.4%. Back up the truck. Need to do the same analysis on Apple, as their price is looking attractive too.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Smokedogg
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Im a 3D modeler that uses programs like Maya, 3D Studio Max, After Effects, etc...and as for games and movies, no one uses tablets. Not many people in my profession even uses laptops. We all use desktops and will continue to.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2883) | Send Message
     
    You just said: desktop for productivity, tablets for consumption, and laptops are going to feel the squeeze.
    12 Nov 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • jdgrego1
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    I think he said desktop for professional niche, tablets for everyday consumption, and laptops for mobile productivity... At least until they can get consumer productivity on a tablet (turbo tax, word, excel) oh, wait... Microsoft Surface.... We're there... Never mind.
    13 Nov 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    Can you run Turbo-tax on Surface RT at the moment? I know they have an iPad version... and FWIW, Numbers, Pages, and soon Office as well.
    13 Nov 2012, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • TopNotchMike
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Multitasking on a tablet is just painful. As long as there are pirates and gamers, there will always be a need for PCs.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • mediumterm
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Tablets are mostly the new play toy, predominantly internet search and music etc ie just a bigger smart phone.
    They are not productivity devices generally yet. The laptop will meet both demands soon, as prices come down and architecture is refined. Tablets may be gone as such in a few years, new software development for the new generation of laptops will be all too enticing and following twitter and facebook etc will not satisfy the user sufficiently to continue with the tablet alone
    13 Nov 2012, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    When I got to computing, those of us who preferred to use programming languages were denigrated by some as fooling with a new toy that was a fad. Obviously, any real productive work needed to be done in assembly language, and it would always be that way.

     

    Ignore the pad at your peril. Or skip it.

     

    You will use verbal interaction with the cloud before you know it.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8857) | Send Message
     
    I don't think comparing a high level language to assembly language is an appropriate analogy here.

     

    Laptops are evolving to be very thin, light, fast, and have touch screens...
    13 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    Isnt siri verbal interactions with the cloud?
    It is absymal. especially since it does not work when you are on holiday and have no internet access.
    13 Nov 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (3423) | Send Message
     
    "Obviously, any real productive work needed to be done in assembly language, and it would always be that way."

     

    I love the re-telling of things that never were. Where does the unicorn come in?

     

    How about something relevant, like how smaller form factors will be more than toys when they're not limited by basically the same input/output mechanisms that are present in desktops and laptops?

     

    Tablets will be more than toys when they're not so limited. Something like full voice recognition and control would go a long way. But the core issue remains, they'll still be computing devices and they'll still need the latest and greatest silicon (the little thingy inside as Intel likes to say).
    13 Nov 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • MexCom
    , contributor
    Comments (3051) | Send Message
     
    And not mentioned by anyone is that these new devices don't use any semiconductors nor software. They are used only as fashion accessories while patronizing coffee shops.
    13 Nov 2012, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • rasanders22
    , contributor
    Comments (534) | Send Message
     
    You forgot to add drinking 5 dollar designer drinks while working on their novel.
    13 Nov 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • p_medica
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Impact Productivity?? Hell, the #1 use for Smart Phones and Tablets is video viewing and game playing (more hours consumed on these devices than any other use). How is this productive! I wish these so called Market Analysts would look closely at the "use" catagories prior to pontificating.
    13 Nov 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • PalmDesertRat
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    bot some intc today at 20.31
    13 Nov 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
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