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Jason Miklian wins big on the spectacular rise of rare earth stocks, recognizes the bubble, but...

Jason Miklian wins big on the spectacular rise of rare earth stocks, recognizes the bubble, but loses it all betting on the collapse too soon. Looking behind the hype, Miklian reminds of the highly speculative and not terribly savory nature of smaller mining companies.
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Comments (11)
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Yep. (REE) - not to be confused with "REE's" is one to avoid, imo. (MCP) is downright wild and wooly with lockbox expiration just around the corner, and the other junior from the (REE) folks, (MLLOF.PK), is also one to be wary off...

     

    But tarring the entire industry with the few boiler room operators is no more legit than doing so with oil, natural gas, or any other sector.

     

    Projections regarding "American demand" are moot - America's manufacturers are NOT a large REE - wow, no duh - but America is THE largest CONSUMER of products made with REEs, which is what is important. And just because we aren't making a lot of things utilizing REEs now, doesn't mean we won't be ASSEMBLING them (ie, the way things work with transplant auto manufacture, for one thing, which is likely to include Prius hybrids and outright electric cars that DO consume lots of REE magnets and metals). Also, this entire sector's narrative is all about the future, not the past. Where are the new technologies going? Given that the President wants to DOUBLE American manufacturing and exports over the next decade, shouldn't we be including those concepts in our thinking here?

     

    Looking at an entire sector which is 100% composed of startups, how helpful is it to point out that none of them have a very low PE? Or a history of operation?

     

    LOL, this is ground zero, gang, ex-China REE sector reality. No comforting fundamentals with decade-long tracking.

     

    22 Jan 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8226) | Send Message
     
    So if I understand this, Jason bet long on the way up and made a killing. Then, took the whole amount and then placed a short bet on the same companies, or commodity or whatever.
    Then he closed out the position maybe too soon?
    If he still thinks the thesis for a crash is valid, why close out?
    22 Jan 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Stephen Alpher
    , contributor
    Comments (546) | Send Message
     
    To paraphrase Quentin Tarantino, knowing something is going to happen and being able to trade profitably off of it "ain't the same ballpark, ain't the same league, ain't even the same ------- sport!"
    22 Jan 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    He didn't exactly 'make a killing'. The article states that his total investment at the beginning was $9k.

     

    I'm not belittling someone for being a small-timer - I am one myself.

     

    But let's distinguish this from the type of 'killing' made by Micheal Burre and John Paulson when they shorted mortgages.

     

    The nasdaq and the housing bubble produced a million such stories of people who had no idea what they were doing, thought they were geniuses, and couldn't admit that luck was the primary cause of their success until it was too late.

     

    This guy essentially bought Pets.com. That doesn't mean that Google or Amazon are bad investments.
    22 Jan 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • dan the miner
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    The only co in the free world that is coming into production (sept of this year) LYNAS (adr"s)LYSDY.70% of its production is pre sold at china fob plus delivery costs.By the time everyone else gets into production (at least 3 years)they will control the needed market. LYSDY at 120 by this sept.
    22 Jan 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Page 72. Alkane, Great Western, Avalon, Lynas, Arafura, Molycorp all winners. Critical Dy Tb Y Nd Eu Many more REE companies needed as well. Critical shortages for the next 15 years.

     

    According to the USA Department of Energy in any case scenario there shall be critical Rare Earth shortages for the next 15 years. Particularly critical for Dy Tb Y Nd Eu.

     

    See USA Department of Energy summary and full reports, and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) video presentation links:

     

    www.energy.gov/news/do...

     

    www.energy.gov/news/do...

     

    csis.org/multimedia/vi...
    23 Jan 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Eamon Keane
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    Christ, this dude hasn't the first clue about rare earths:

     

    "[Rare Element Resource's] first actual sale of rare earths won't happen until 2015, long after the other 20 rare-earth companies further along in the production process have locked up all the major buyers."

     

    It is incumbent upon informed day traders to part him from his money.
    22 Jan 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • spald_fr
    , contributor
    Comments (2733) | Send Message
     
    [It is incumbent upon informed day traders to part him from his money.]

     

    LOL, that is priceless.
    22 Jan 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Venerability
    , contributor
    Comments (3048) | Send Message
     
    People may not know that a component of the XAU and TSX Gold indices, IAG (IMG.TO) is the second largest world producer of Niobium, a rare metal which China does NOT produce!

     

    The largest producer is a loosely-linked conglomerate of Brazilian companies. But Canadian IAG is a very solid second and has been for decades via its predecessor company, Cambior.
    22 Jan 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • marrouch
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I agree about LYNAS. LYSDY mostly guaranteed prospect, for basically very few but clear and strong reasons/ all of which can be easily confirmed through multiple sources, the easiest among them is the company website.
    With the recent huge demand and increase in REE prices and china's tightening on REE export to satisfy its own needs, it is a simple math to figure out how fast LYNAS will be profitable ( according to recent prices it will take LYNAS 18 months to break even, everything from there onward is pure profit ):
    1- LYNAS will be the first REE company to start production ( in few months this year ) outside china.
    2- LYNAS is sitting on the largest REE reserve on earth in both Australia ( where i am from ) and Malaysia and recently Africa.
    3- Nearly all REE production is sold to Japan and Europe through recent agreements at an unbelievably advantageous terms to LYNAS.
    4- Barriers to entry into REE business is extremely high ( so many considerations / it takes many years for any new comers to start producing. The demand is only going up, I can't see it will go down unless we suddenly give up on technology.
    Finally, at current stock price ( around 2$ ) and a float of 1.5 B shares, it will take 18 months for LYNAS to make its entire current market cap in revenues, and with at a conservative 65% profit margin and assuming the REE prices stop increasing..! you can do the math..
    From all I know about the company and its operations, balance sheet, agreements signed..etc ( all from published sources and nothing special ) , this must be one sweet investment..I can see it easily at $10 by year end ( once the results of first production quarter starting in August or September 2011 ).
    Good luck to all and sorry to the shorts out there..
    23 Jan 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Yes LYC best REE performer in australia at over 5 percent yesterday.

     

    Other 5 buyable on DOE list in production worth a look too.

     

    I have all 6.

     

    ALK ARU LYC GWMGF (going AMEX soon) AVL MCP

     

    Made a REE million yet?
    1 Feb 2011, 04:33 AM Reply Like
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