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Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) An unnamed Samsung official has denied a report claiming his...

Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) An unnamed Samsung official has denied a report claiming his company has hiked the price it charges for producing Apple's app processors by ~20%. 2) Gene Munster estimates the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini currently sport component margins of 69% and 43%. Apple's soft FQ1 margin guidance last month raised eyebrows. 3) A Cowen survey of U.S. adults found 12% claiming they plan to buy an iPad Mini; 52% of those respondents said they've never owned a tablet before.
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Comments (24)
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    "Of the 1,225 U.S. adults Cowen surveyed, 12 percent said they planned to purchase an iPad mini in the next 18 months, and of those, 52 percent said they’d never owned a tablet before."

     

    1225 adults is an interesting sample size upon which to base investment decisions. I place more value upon the forward guidance of Apple.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1467) | Send Message
     
    It's an interesting sample size because it's based on statistical modeling. Given a random sample of that size gives you a ~95% probability of accuracy plus/minus 3%.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    Depends upon the quality of the data being sampled.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/UpInn3

     

    Factoring an adult U.S. population of 235 million would mean 28.2 million iPad Mini sold over the next four quarters. That's about half as many as regular iPad annual sales. Since iPad sales volumes appear to be highest at launch and around Q4 holiday shopping, we would need to see nearly 1/3rd of projected volume reported Q1 2013 in order to be on track for total sales over 28 million in 2013. I would be more comfortable with a lower estimate; high estimates that are not met will only set-up shareholders and the market analysts for disappointment.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1467) | Send Message
     
    No question it depends on the quality of the data. Doing a truly random sample is no easy task. It's so difficult that the specific methods used are more often than not, proprietary.

     

    Gene Muenster samples a few selected stores ... which is not a random sampling. But the markets don't care about that detail.
    14 Nov 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • yk01616
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    It may interest you to know that most of the major media national opinion polls in the election for potus also involved samples of only approx 1000 ! ....
    17 Nov 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    Without going into the math, a sample size over 6000 would have been a better measure. There are a few companies who compile usage data based upon large users bases, often numbering in the millions of users. We can see where things are now, though guessing where things will be in the future is much tougher. To partially quote an old phrase: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
    17 Nov 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1370) | Send Message
     
    The quality of the sample is almost always more important than the sample size. Considering there is no detail about how they selected the sample... I wouldn't make any important decisions based on it.
    17 Nov 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Michael2343
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Then when they get to the store they'll buy 2 Samsung or 2 Google tablets/phones or chromebooks instead, for the same price.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • suddencall
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Then 3 months later they are out shopping for another . The competition is not really competition at all.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    Samsung is right..they did not say they would charge 20% more..they said NO MORE...lol...Samsung is going to win this...
    14 Nov 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (1019) | Send Message
     
    Samsung has been found to be a thief in a court of law and because the jury found the infringment INTTENTIONAL, the judgge can triple the damages on Dec 21.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone get thrown in jail?
    14 Nov 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (1019) | Send Message
     
    you cant throw a corporation in jail. But you can nail them for a billion dollars. Just Ask BP.
    17 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    BP is a different situation, because 11 people died in that disaster. No one died because Apple went after Samsung.

     

    http://reut.rs/SUyhuX

     

    Manslaughter charges have been filed against the two most senior managers on the Challenger Horizon. The events then are not comparable at all with pissing contest between Apple and Samsung.
    17 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • mnoman
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    When you sign the contract then you make sure that no one party can increase prices or walk away beyond one limit. You guys think one morning , samsung CEO woke up and said let's increase 20% prices for Apple from tomorrow. There are all sort of anti trust laws to prevent such behavior. How much one can increase rent per year, 5% by law. So all contracts have clauses that how much price can be increased and what will be the protocol to do that. If Samsung can do this today, do you think how much Samsung will lose goodwill in long term ? No one wants to deal with such behaviors in business.

     

    Have you guys ever work in corporates? I have and I know how it works. This is all FUD.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1467) | Send Message
     
    It appears some people choose to believe unnamed sources anywhere in the proximity of the area between and including South Korea and California.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rickthegeek
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    The fact that Apple's newest device was a smaller version of a bigger version of the same thing (ipad to mini-ipad) is not very impressive. From what I am hearing is that even Microsoft's newest device, the surface, actually does more than the ipad. The only problem is Apple gets the love and Microsoft does not.

     

    There are also other problems with Apple and it is their iphones. Now, there is more competition than ever, and even the Samsung Galaxy S3 has more features and is more impressive than the iphone.

     

    As with every boom and bust, a company like Apple who has to continually come up with the next best thing (and others in this arena) it is only a matter of time before their next best thing just isn't good enough. Then, look out below. Their stock will tank, just the bubbles of the dot.com era did.

     

    The only true, safe companies are the ones who year after year, provide the same product, they don't have to re-invent themselves every quarter. These are the companies you know, PG, KO, BUD, PM, etc.

     

    Apple and companies like them are fad companies. Fad companies get smacked. When they fall, they fall hard and fast.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Lance Finke
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    Can we please let consumers determine whether the 'next best thing' is satisfactory for them, vs someone named 'rickthegeek'?

     

    Aapl is not a safe company but it does provide a better investment opportunity than the companies it is competing against that make $0 profit on their alledged 'superior' products. Consumers seem like the better judge of this based upon their willingness to spend the extra money on aapl products.

     

    I have never seen a company with products and margins 20-30% greater than competing products, with sales growing by the billions quarter after quarter, and widely accepted products across every electronic/computing device get bashed so deliberately over completely meaningless and bad information. (like this market current insinuates)
    14 Nov 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1370) | Send Message
     
    >> a smaller version of a bigger version

     

    Sort of like the Macbook Air (most successful laptop) or the iPod Nano (more popular than it's larger cousin)?

     

    >> There are also other problems with Apple and it is their iphones. <<

     

    Opinions of "is better than" aside, analysts are estimating there will be 46 million iPhone 5s sold this quarter. How is that a problem?

     

    >> As with every boom and bust, a company like Apple who has to continually come up with the next best thing... Apple and companies like them are fad companies. <<

     

    I'm certain you feel your opinion is unique and original like a snowflake, but this 'observation' has been suggested about 4 million times over the past 10 years. This year is special why?
    15 Nov 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    Did the survey include the surface ?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Nov 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mortonk
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    I'm buying an IPad mini for Christmas, can you add that to your stats....!
    14 Nov 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3080) | Send Message
     
    You can join Occupy Apple Store and be part of the 12% ;)
    14 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • warrenrial
    , contributor
    Comments (559) | Send Message
     
    Samsung has it all over Apple. Apple better start back to getting more innovative I think their vault is empty.
    14 Nov 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    "An unnamed Samsung source". Now that's responsible financial reporting and analysis. Good god!
    14 Nov 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
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