Seeking Alpha

NAHB Housing Market Index: 46, up from 41 in Oct, vs. 42 expected. Index marks seventh...

NAHB Housing Market Index: 46, up from 41 in Oct, vs. 42 expected. Index marks seventh consecutive monthly gain in the confidence gauge and its highest point since May of 2006. Components reflecting current sales conditions posted the biggest eight points increase to 49. (PR)
Comments (7)
  • 46 strong...has good correlation to housing starts...
    19 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • bbro,


    Interesting given the divergence in IP and housing. Hopefully housing helps drive improvements in the IP numbers in the month's ahead. What do you think?


    Last week's number looked pretty ugly. Supposedly the NFP could be close to negative this month so I wonder whether that is a recessionary signal or just noise from Sandy.
    19 Nov 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Industrial production especially durable consumer goods looks really bad,,,NFP should be close to flat for November ( same thing happened
    with Katrina) is likely a one off situation..I am looking a couple of non Sandy states ( their jobless claims) to see if carries recession jobs indicator would require a substantial negative number to trigger a recession signal
    19 Nov 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • So this means we don't need more of those government sponsored homebuyer programs and to reduce lending standards.
    19 Nov 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interestingly, homebuilding-related ETF's like IYR and ITB remain great short candidates, imho. They continue to under-perform the broader market after ramping up in anticipation of this better news for the last year. All the good news has already been priced into those particular securities, imho.
    19 Nov 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Sentiment is what got us into an economic catastrophe. Let's talk numbers. In particular, who doesn't own a home? (I submit very few, most have bought causing a bubble) What's their income? (I submit fragile, at best, and not increasing above inflation) How many foreclosures in attorney inboxes? (I submit a great many) How many boomers will sell, die, downsize or move into homes? (I submit a ton) How many would-be buyers have more than $100k in student loans? (I submit very many). Are the banks lending freely? (25% down, interest rates certain to increase [always bad for housing], tight credit? (I submit disaster)


    The metrics for this sector are uglier than ugly. People laughed at me when in 2006 we shorted it. I admit, we were nervous and experiencing withdrawals, then we did unbelievably well (understatement). Then we closed positions. Rinse and repeat. Numbers and facts matter. Who knew?
    19 Nov 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Hurricane anyone?
    19 Nov 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)