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Oct Housing Starts:+3.6% to 894K vs. 836K expected and 863K (revised) in Sep. Permits 866K vs....

Oct Housing Starts:+3.6% to 894K vs. 836K expected and 863K (revised) in Sep. Permits 866K vs. 865K expected and 890K (revised) in Sep.
Comments (12)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    The Housing Starts to Total Nonfarm payroll employment ratio is now
    .67%...the average for the 1990's was 1.17%... the low for the 1990's was January 1991 at .73%...The 30 year mortgage rate in
    January 1991 was 9.64%...today's 30 year mortgage is 3.34%
    20 Nov 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Given where housing is now as a %age of GDP vs 2006, how much incremental GDP growth does a number like this drive?

     

    The y/y numbers are good even with the depressed base so it looks like housing was a big part of why we had positive GDP y/y.

     

    Thank you.
    20 Nov 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    Over the last 20 years a 1 million housing starts had residential investment to Gdp at 3.5% 1.5 million 4.5%...but since these housing starts have a lot of multi housing this relationship is slower...I am guessing a million housing starts equals 3.0% of GDP ( we are 2.5% now)
    20 Nov 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Thanks. That's a good enough guess for me.

     

    Multi-family has seemed to be the driving number now. I wonder if we are shifting to more of a rental culture now?

     

    I assumed all housing had the same multiplier so I learned something new.
    20 Nov 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10360) | Send Message
     
    GALT

     

    Or two family members living together, like parents and a child as well?
    20 Nov 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    What the devil does the ratio of housing starts to nonfarm payroll employment ratio have to do with anything? Show me a single professional economist that looks at this rabbit you pulled out of a hat.
    20 Nov 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    I would love it if you ignored this data,,,,
    20 Nov 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    all apartments I bet...it sure is in Denver.....
    20 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Reel Ken
    , contributor
    Comments (3855) | Send Message
     
    The Commerce Department says housing starts jumped 3.6 percent in October from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000. Single-family home construction dipped 0.2 percent.

     

    Apartment construction, which is more volatile, rose 10 percent
    20 Nov 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    "Another Real Estate Bubble" In the top three on SA today.

     

    In any case, these numbers indicate that we do not need more government sponsored housing programs; in fact, they should be eliminated. Lending standards must be maintained.
    20 Nov 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    What would be useful to know is how many buyers have a commitment letter and are actively shopping vs. how many boomers plan on selling in the next 3 yrs. Also, how far are those buyers willing to extend themselves, and a breakout of incomes vs. home prices. Many of these stats. bandied about don't shed much light on the subject/issues.
    20 Nov 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10360) | Send Message
     
    Personally, i know a ton of older baby boomers looking to sell their homes and move into a condo or smaller house. Most have owned their homes for 30 plus years so they aren't taking any losses.

     

    So to them this makes sense..Cash purchase of a smaller house with money being put away for retirement. It seems like a good trade off to me. No more mowing lawns, shoveling snow, etc..

     

    Right now you tell a seller you are buying using cash and see how quickly they lower their price as well!!
    20 Nov 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
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