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Checks indicate demand for Nokia's (NOK -5.2%) Lumia 920 is "solid" at AT&T, but well behind...

Checks indicate demand for Nokia's (NOK -5.2%) Lumia 920 is "solid" at AT&T, but well behind demand for the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S III, says Raymond James' Tavis McCourt, who reiterates an Underperform. Moreover, McCourt thinks commentary from AT&T reps about the 920 "was very similar to the April launch of the Lumia 900, but with a lot more supply issues." He adds the 900 was on Amazon's top-10 bestseller list for 2 months, and that HTC and Samsung's Windows Phone 8 models also face supply problems. (previous: I, II, III)
Comments (27)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    well the 900 didnt have much new competition probably why it stayed on the list for so long. No one said the 920 had to outstrip the SIII or iPhone 5 for the stock to do well.

     

    Phone is being well received around the world so it could mean good things for Nokia. If they can continue to build the MSFT apps store up and work out a few of the nuances then I could def see NOK becoming a top tier competitor in the next 2-3 years. For now I'm betting on seeing $4 maybe $4.50 once sales numbers come in.

     

    love my 920 by the way... took a while to get but it's a great phone and WP8 is flawless so far for me.
    27 Nov 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Cindywu1018
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    McCourt must read this: lumia 920 pre orders equal or exceed iphone5 in Netherlands

     

    http://bit.ly/QvqiYm
    30 Nov 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Zankudo
    , contributor
    Comments (224) | Send Message
     
    Tavis checked AT&T and it was "solid" huh...means nothing calling a clerk or two. What would mean something are the numbers for each phone and the supply on hand. And besides the US is not the only market. One would not expect overcoming Apple and Samsung on the flagship phone at this point, although Nokia sells far more phones overall, and the 920 from all reports is superior to either of the others. So you pays your money and takes your chances. My bet is on Nokia. Apple aint going away and neither is Samsung but the same goes for Nokia.
    27 Nov 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    The only thing Nokia needs to be careful of is not pushing on MSFT and app developers to add, and keep apps updated. Some of their own apps need fixes too...

     

    Supply was awful stories of stores getting less than 20 of each phone and such, so either it was planned to create the sense of demand, demand was greatly underestimated, production wasn't up and running when the phone was released, or some combination of the 3... (there are probably a few more possible scenarios just the few off the top of my head). I am also without my wireless charge pad still a week after I received my phone.
    27 Nov 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • stealthology
    , contributor
    Comments (308) | Send Message
     
    clearly just feeding the shorts.

     

    I think it's amazing how much influence and power these analyst groups have. The shady ones can really cause a disruption in the normal pricing of a stock for their benefit.
    27 Nov 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    They create headlines for bots to read and react to.
    27 Nov 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • stealthology
    , contributor
    Comments (308) | Send Message
     
    Do you think some of these big analyst groups are shady? Or just ill-informed? I don't think I'm naive enough to think they're just ill-informed..
    27 Nov 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1055) | Send Message
     
    Of course they're shady! But I think characterizing the market manipulators as 'shorts' is a bit off. Pump and dump is more like it. Or if you prefer: 'accumulate and distribute'. Tech names like NOK, RIMM, etc. are perfect for their games because people get excited about the technology, how they're selling, etc, etc., and worry that they'll miss the boat rather than just standing by and waiting for the boat to come to them.
    27 Nov 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    No question in my mind that the media is a battle ground which people attempt to influence markets in their favour.

     

    That's what the media is for though, spreading propaganda. It's been that way since the first radio signals. Before that newspapers and books. I wouldn't describe it as shady though. I just assume that everyone is talking their book. Someone says X sucks, they're short X and long Y. Once X is low they'll be long X and short Y.

     

    I wouldn't believe a word of anything printed in the media, including SA. It's all propaganda from one interest group or another. Under the best circumstances journalists rarely even get people's names correct, never mind anything more complex than that. Even better, if people are handing out pre-written articles you can simply publish, think just how lazy you could be and still get paid!
    27 Nov 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • jazzfan1
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Absolutely ridiculous article from "Raymond James' Tavis McCourt", a guy obviously '"his masters voice", and his master wants "bash NOK Shares". In other parts of society this would be called criminal!
    One interesting question (at least for me): how many lumias NOK needs to sell to become profitable in the smartphone-section?
    27 Nov 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • juhanishen
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    It is said or according to analyst, Lumia series has to sell above 13 million per quarter, then come to break even point. But that's analyst says. Only Nokia Financial department know the real break even number.

     

    I am long for Nokia. A couple of month ago, analyst are talking Nokia bankruptcy. Now they are talking about Nokia is going to lose money. I estimate a couple of month later, they are all going to raise Nokia target. Analyst are behind of the trend of stock price.

     

    If you want to earn money, there is thumb of rule, (not 100% correct), buy when everyone sells, sell when everyone buys.

     

    I bought nok from Eur 3 down to Eur 2, my average price is 2.43 Euro. It is still above break even point.
    27 Nov 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1242) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. Manipulators play both sides, short and long, back and forth, cutting the golden crumbs from the cakes... and get rich. Only way to stay safe from that is to buy and hold until you believe all value is squeezed. Not a question of days or months, but years. To each his own. If you can time it successfully, more power to ya.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • juhanishen
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    It is said(rumor) that microsoft permit final version just before a couple of days before launch. That's why Nokia, HTC and Samsung are all short of supply.

     

    I am long for Nokia. One thing I shall point out: This time, Nokia is going to take China Mobile as partner in China, not China Telecom. China telecom has Chinese low margin users, such as students. China mobile almost dominates high end mobile user market. There is no TD-SCDMA iphone. Nokia is going to make TD-SCDMA standard Lumia 920. And it is going to launch in China soon. This is huge difference and potential. China mobile has largest user base in the world, if I remember correctly.

     

    Second, I remember Lumia 800 is first in European market, while Lumia 900 is in U.S market when Nokia launch window 7.5 phone. Lumia 800 is not as successful comparing Lumia 920 in Europe.

     

    Third, Lumia 7.5 phone is not selling well due to Microsoft windows 8 OS does not support hardware of Lumia 900 and 800. That's the main reason Lumia window 7.5 sales shrink.

     

    My view is that iOS, Android and windows will all have their eco system. Nokia will play a dominant role in window ecosystem.
    27 Nov 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    The 900 is still selling, it's at 19 in the chart. It's still a nice phone (I have one till I get a 920).
    27 Nov 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1242) | Send Message
     
    Juha: "It is said(rumor) that microsoft permit final version just before a couple of days before launch. That's why Nokia, HTC and Samsung are all short of supply."
    Is this logical? It is assembling the phones and shipping that takes time. Once the OS is finalized, how long do you think it takes to zap it on the phone? I would think this is the fastest point of the whole manufacturing process.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    Charles,
    It depends on how the manufacturing is set up but I imagine they would have to hook up each phone individually and upload the OS wouldn't they? Sounds time consuming to me.

     

    You can't just load one phone and ship it your not buying factory direct... they have to wait until they have 1000s of phones loaded and ready to go so they can get good shipping rates.

     

    (If I understand the process which I could totally be wrong, just saying that it is possible that not having the OS until a few days prior could cause delays).
    28 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • brianngaibh
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    I was working as a project manager previously for digital av products back in 2007. It's quite possible that the software/firmware engineers frequently making last minutes changes to patch up software bugs. Very often, manufacturing piles up products to the final stage and stocking for final firmware release. Every new software release, it has to go thru the entire system test becasue one bug resolved may create other bug(s) despite using sophisticated simulation testers.
    Believe it of not, there is absolutely no way to design a software bug free product! It's always followed by updates or upgrades to users via network therefore the decision whether to release the final product to the market or not is a crucial decision that may involve top management participation.
    I trust it could be the case since smartphones are much more complex than many digital/RF products.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    The black 920 is back up to number 2 at Amazon ahead of all but 1 Samsung.

     

    I guess AT&T got a shipment in. A whole 20 phones maybe. Nokia must have 2 Chinese guys knocking them out in their back yard.

     

    http://amzn.to/HLcAr3

     

    Nuff said.
    27 Nov 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Imperial_Dynamics
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    every indication/connection i have points that interest for the Lumia 920 is higher than any other Nokia product in the last TEN YEARS. So how that McCourt guy compares to the 900 is beyond me.
    and don't just take my word for it
    http://bit.ly/RgZFHP
    27 Nov 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Cool, I forgot about Google trends. Isn't there something similar for Twitter too?
    27 Nov 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • juhanishen
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    I strongly believe Lumia 920 has better position and potential than Lumia 900 and 800. When Lumia 900 and 800 are launched, people does not know what's Nokia window phone advantage. Later, they know mainly offline map. Lumia 920 has better features, such as image, map (drive and pedestrian), office,. In Chinese grey market, Lumia 920 is highly demanded.

     

    The other thing one shall not forget Lumia 900 missed Christmas season while Lumia 920 is not.

     

    Analyst tends to compare with history. If everything is predictable, there is no surprise.
    27 Nov 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Beautyglam717
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Nokia will rise in stock price, very bullish. And you will get paid for it if you are patient and have the nerve of steel. I am talking even way higher than $10!!! Jen
    27 Nov 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5740) | Send Message
     
    Well behind iPhone 5 and GS3? Well first lets set the stage correctly. "An estimate of 18 million Galaxy S III's sold in Q3, and 16.2 million iPhone 4S's." So the GS3 is outselling the iPhone 5.

     

    Now, back to the simple math. Nokia needs to sell 5m Lumia 920's, or it's latest sibling, making $100 per phone to make $500m additional profit on smart phones per quarter. Extend that for a year, 20m Lumia's, and Nokia would generate $2b in additional profits and their stock would go to $6-8 PS. No, Nokia isn't anywhere near Android or Apple yet in smart phone sales numbers. If they could sell 10m Lumia's a quarter, 1/3 of Apple's and Samsungs numbers, Nokia's stock would be back in the $30s and Raymond James would look even more foolish.

     

    I don't know or really care what Raymond James intentions are but they seem to be defending the fact that they've told their clientele to stay away from Nokia while Nokia has doubled in the last 4 months.
    27 Nov 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jay Murphy
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    A couple of months ago the question was "Will NOK go bankrupt". Now the only problem is that the 920 is not selling as much as the iPhone! Well those of us who bought around EUR 2 are happy to have that sort of problem.
    28 Nov 2012, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    why does a RJ anylst make a statment like this when Raymond opens up a 98,0000 shares NOK share position on 9-30-12
    dogging the stock while his company quietly buys it
    http://bit.ly/TntqlR

     

    see for yourself
    28 Nov 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • jazzfan1
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    wanting to buy more, writing "article", then price lower...
    like I wrote earlier : behaviour like criminals...
    28 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • brianngaibh
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    "诺基亚将联合中国移动于12月5日在广州发布... (Chinese characters)
    FYI... News from http://www.ithome.com on 2012-11-22 reports that Nokia will joinly announce with China Mobile launch of Lumia920T at Canton city on Dec 5. While HTC will announce launching 8X and 8S to China markets.
    28 Nov 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
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