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Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised).

Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised).
Comments (19)
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    At this level of sales is there really a material difference between "hitting and missing" the numbers?

     

    This is still an amazingly low number for this stage of the "expansion". For optimists, lots of room to grow.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Playing the Ponzi
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    I agree that in terms of real numbers one would hope there is nothing but upside for the housing market from these still-depressed levels. But in terms of securities, ETF's like IYR (Real Estate) and ITB (Builders) have rallied hugely for the last year. They have already priced in a couple rounds of good news. Anything short of significant strength will disappoint what's priced into them, imho. I am short both since I expect less strength than apparently the market does.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Playing,

     

    I always admire someone who puts their money behind their beliefs.
    28 Nov 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    Completed new homes for sale...40,000...no recession has started unless this number has been above at least 92,000
    28 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    bbro, I think the fallacy of most of your statements is they all look to the past for what the future will do...

     

    the world changes bro, might want to be open to the idea that the past doesn't always show us the future.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    "the past doesn't always show us the future."

     

    Nothing is always...you might want to be open to study the past
    28 Nov 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3981) | Send Message
     
    So you'll concede it's possible to be in recession even though certain facts/numbers don't match those same numbers in past recessions?
    28 Nov 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Not to disagree with you but this is a variant of that fallacy which begins with: "We have had a recession every time (blank) fell below 2X".

     

    You are just formulating it differently.

     

    As far as whether we can have a recession at these levels, well I guess we will find out within the next 6 months one way or another. With negative revisions to the prior month's data this does look really weak at this point.

     

    If we indeed the peak for new homes in this cycle that would be a shocker.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    Everything is odds....no absolutes...which is why I look at a compilation of
    indicators...The final numbers I keep to myself....work to hard on it to give it away
    28 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely...in fact of this is not one of the indicators I follow for predictiveness...I follow 16 right now 2 are negative...
    28 Nov 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Do you have mix of those indicators that determines your overall view of the possibility of a recession? For example, 8 negative, 8 positive is hold or sell. Or is it a weighted system where some indicators are weighted heavier than others?
    28 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Remyngton
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    4 more years
    4 more years
    28 Nov 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Todd Campbell
    , contributor
    Comments (296) | Send Message
     
    The 'miss' is a bit misleading. It still reflects a 17% lift from a year ago. Margin of error is big. Better to look at permits, up 29.8% from the prior year. Months supply is tight still at 4.8, down from 6.1 last year. Months on the market is also strong at 5.9, down from 8 in June and 7.2 last year.
    28 Nov 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    With mortgage rates at 3.25% (less than half what they were at peak) housing should be booming.
    28 Nov 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10359) | Send Message
     
    Wow , what a shocker!! I wish they would tell us something we weren't expecting to hear !!
    28 Nov 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2548) | Send Message
     
    There is a huge and growing number of foreclosures banks are holding and they will not be able to hang on to them forever. I don't see that as a positive for home prices going forward when they resume releasing them unless the job picture changes dramatically which I haven't heard anyone suggest it will.Credit to buy a home remains tight, they are are correlated.

     

    20% + of the building permits they keep bringing up are apartments. Big demand for those these days You cant compare the economic impact of a multi family complex with that of a new home development on a community. 1/3 of homes sold today are to investors. It is still very much a valuation driven market. According to one analyst the housing bubble bust removed $1.3 to $1.4 trillion from the US GDP. They are nowhere near that today. With rates as low as they are today housing market should be booming
    28 Nov 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10359) | Send Message
     
    i posted somewhere else the banks were holding back inventory and no one believed me. I even have a banker for a relative. Let them think what they want!!
    28 Nov 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3529) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone track demolitions? I would be interested in comparing the net addition or reduction to the housing stock compared to population variance. Detroit is often used as an example of a shrinking housing market (demolitions exceed new construction). Multigenerational households could have the same effect on the overall housing stock.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • 7footMoose
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    Weak job market. Tremendous Tax Code uncertainty. Slow to stalled economy. Leads to weak new and used home sales.
    29 Nov 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like
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